Baker Mayfield Leads the L.A. Rams to Improbable Comeback Win Over the Las Vegas Raiders

The L.A. Rams' 17-16 Thursday Night Football win over the Las Vegas Raiders is one of the most improbable comebacks in sports history--and that is not hyperbole, it is demonstrable fact: according to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Rams' game-winning 98 yard drive was the longest go-ahead touchdown drive that began in the final two minutes of an NFL game in the past 45 seasons.

The reigning Super Bowl champion Rams stumbled into the game with a 3-9 record en route to what will likely be the worst season ever by a Super Bowl winner; the only other Super Bowl winners to lose at least nine games in the next season are the 1987 New York Giants (6-9 in a strike-shortened season), and the 1999 Denver Broncos (6-10). On Thursday against the Raiders, the Rams were down to their third string quarterback Baker Mayfield in the first quarter, because injured second string quarterback John Wolford only played the first series. Mayfield had just joined the Rams on Tuesday after being waived by the Carolina Panthers, who had demoted him to third string. 

The Raiders are not a powerhouse, but they had just won three straight games, and after a 36 yard field goal by Daniel Carlson increased their lead over the Rams to 16-3 with 12:25 remaining in the fourth quarter no one expected Baker Mayfield to transform into Tom Brady; just four days earlier, Brady led his Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 17-16 Monday Night Football win over the New Orleans Saints after trailing 16-3 with 5:21 remaining in the fourth quarter--but Brady is a seven-time Super Bowl champion and that was his record-setting 44th comeback in the fourth quarter or overtime, while Mayfield's NFL resume is shorter and much less distinguished.

Mayfield does not fit either of the main prototypes for an NFL quarterback: he is not a big, strong, and tall quarterback who stands in the pocket until the last second, absorbing a bone-crunching hit before delivering an accurate 50 yard bomb, nor is he an elite runner who can threaten defenses with both the pass and the run. He is an undersized quarterback with good arm strength who uses his mobility to buy time to throw, but prefers not to run (he has never rushed for more than 165 yards in a season). 

Mayfield's best qualities are leadership and toughness. There is no question that his teammates rally around him, believe in him, and genuinely like him. There is also no question that he is tough, as shown by his willingness to play through injury (see below), and by his overall durability (he appeared in at least 14 games in each of his first four seasons).

When A.J. Cole's 65 yard punt rolled to the two yard line with two minutes left in the fourth quarter and the Raiders leading 16-10, Mayfield faced the daunting task of leading the Rams 98 yards for a touchdown with no timeouts. The drive did not begin well: Mayfield had two incompletions, and then his third pass was intercepted, but the interception was nullified by a pass interference call (the pass would probably have not been intercepted but for the pass interference against intended receiver Van Jefferson). After the automatic first down because of the penalty, Mayfield was sacked on first down, but the sack was wiped out by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Jerry Tillery, who knocked the ball out of Mayfield's hand after the play was over and the Rams were trying to hurry up to run the next play.

Mayfield hit Ben Skowronek with a 32 yard completion, placing the Rams at the Raiders' 40 yard line. Mayfield then completed two short passes to advance the ball to the 23 yard line before spiking the ball with :16 left in regulation. On the next play, Mayfield connected with Jefferson for the game tying touchdown. The Rams took the lead with a successful extra point kick, and they guaranteed the win with an interception on the Raiders' first play from scrimmage after the ensuing kickoff.

Mayfield is 0-22 in his career as a starter when his team trails by at least 13 points, but this was the second time he has led a 13-point comeback after coming off of the bench; he overcame a 14-0 deficit in his NFL debut in 2018.

That debut took place when Mayfield played for the Cleveland Browns. Mayfield's departure from Cleveland has engendered resentment and mockery from at least some Browns fans. I am a lifelong Cleveland Browns fan, but I am not a Browns fan who feels any animosity toward Mayfield. The Browns have been a dysfunctional franchise ever since returning to the NFL in 1999, and some of the team's best moments during that dreadful period have come with Mayfield at the helm. In 2018, Mayfield set an NFL single season rookie record (since broken) with 27 touchdown passes, leading the Browns to a 7-8-1 record. A seven win season may not seem impressive, but that was the Browns' best record since 2007, which says a lot not only about Mayfield but also about the decrepit state of the franchise. Mayfield threw 22 touchdown passes in 2019 and became the first Browns quarterback to start all 16 regular season games since Tim Couch in 2001, but Mayfield's interception total increased from 14 to 21, and the Browns' record slipped to 6-10.

In 2020, Mayfield tossed 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions as the Browns went 11-5, qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Mayfield again started all 16 regular season games. The Browns then defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 48-37 in the Wild Card game, posting the third highest single game playoff scoring total in franchise history while notching the team's first road playoff win since 1969 and first playoff win overall since January 1995, when Bill Belichick coached the Browns. The Browns' playoff run ended with a 22-17 loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Mayfield led the Browns to a 3-1 record to start the 2021 season, but he had partially torn the labrum in his left shoulder in the second game, and that injury limited his effectiveness for the bulk of that campaign. Mayfield showed his toughness by playing in 14 out of 16 games, but the team should have protected him from himself and given him the opportunity to fully recover. Mayfield finished with 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, the Browns went 8-9 as the schedule expanded to 17 games, and the team traded Mayfield to Carolina after the season.

In sum, Mayfield had a very good rookie season, he led the Browns to their first playoff win in almost 30 years, and he fought through a painful injury to try to help the team win in 2021 (that may not have been the smartest thing to do, but no one can question his heart or his toughness). The Browns' problems--as evidenced by the team's 5-7 record this season--run much deeper than Mayfield's real or perceived shortcomings; he deserves a lot of credit for any success that the Browns had during his stint with the franchise, and not much blame for problems that existed for decades before he arrived and, sadly, persist after his departure.

I am neither a Rams fan not a Raiders fan, but I enjoyed watching Mayfield show his doubters and critics that he can still play. In terms of quarterback evaluation, I trust Super Bowl-winning coach Sean McVay a lot more than I trust any of the coaches or talent evaluators for the Cleveland Browns or Carolina Panthers (who have had four coaches but just one playoff appearance since losing the Super Bowl after the 2015 season). If McVay thinks that Mayfield can contribute to a winning program he is probably right, and on Thursday night Mayfield did his part to justify McVay's belief in him.

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

This year's Wild Card Weekend was a bit odd, as the road teams were favored in all four contests. After looking carefully at each matchup, I decided that there were good reasons that the home teams were underdogs but when the dust cleared two of those home teams won, so I only correctly picked the outcome of two of the four Wild Card Weekend games. However, the only result that really surprised me was San Diego beating Indianapolis; even though the Chargers have played the Colts very tough in recent years, the Chargers were a banged up 8-8 team while the Colts were the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch and featured the league MVP, Peyton Manning. I had Atlanta squeaking by Arizona 27-24 but acknowledged that the Cardinals had a "puncher's chance if Warner puts a lot of points on the board and avoids committing costly turnovers" and that was exactly what happened in a 30-24 Cardinals win. I knew that Baltimore and Philadelphia would prove to be superior to Miami and Minnesota respectively.

Perhaps the most intriguing thing about the four Divisional Playoff games is that they are all rematches of 2008 regular season contests. Here are my predictions:

Saturday's games:

The 12-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 13-3 AFC South Champion Tennessee Titans.

On paper, Tennessee and Baltimore are about as evenly matched as possible. The Titans posted the best regular season record in the NFL this season but these teams tied for the best point differential (8.8 ppg). The Titans won the regular season matchup 13-10 at Baltimore but the Ravens have won four of their previous seven games versus Tennessee. Both teams have bruising running attacks and fierce defenses.

The Titans are a bit banged up on both the offensive and defensive lines; Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are expected to play but center Kevin Mawae's status is less certain and that could obviously have a major impact on Tennessee in both the running game and the passing game.

The Ravens are coming off of a convincing win against a hot Dolphins team but they have to play on the road against a well rested division champion. The key factor will be that Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins must avoid throwing costly interceptions (hint: be aware of where Ed Reed is and do not throw the football anywhere near him).

Tennessee will win, 24-13.

The 10-7 NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals visit the 12-4 NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers.

Arizona looked terrible in the last few weeks of the regular season but surprised a lot of people by beating Atlanta in the Wild Card game. Still, the Cardinals had a negative point differential during the season, went 0-5 in the Eastern time zone and have lost five of their last seven games to Carolina, including a 27-23 road loss this season. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns in that game but the Panthers did not lose at home this season and are not likely to do so versus Arizona.

Carolina will win, 31-17.

Sunday's games:

The 10-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 12-4 NFC East Champion New York Giants.

These division rivals split their 2008 games, with the Giants winning 36-31 at Philadelphia before losing 20-14 at home. The Eagles have won 10 of the previous 17 meetings overall and the Giants have not been quite the same since losing the services of troubled wide receiver Plaxico Burress. Despite New York's superior record, the two teams had virtually identical point differentials. The winner will be the team that is more physical, does a better job of establishing a running game and is able to avoid costly mistakes. New York is the defending Super Bowl champion, a team that made their title run by putting together a record setting road winning streak. They are well rested and I don't think that they will lose to a talented but inconsistent Philadelphia squad.

New York will win, 24-10

The 9-8 Wild Card San Diego Chargers visit the 12-4 AFC North Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10 this season but that score is very deceptive; the referees erroneously nullified a late Pittsburgh TD, the Steelers outgained San Diego 410 yards to 213 and Ben Roethlisberger completely outplayed Philip Rivers, posting a 96.4 passer rating compared to a season-low 44.4 rating for Rivers. The fact that San Diego has beaten Pittsburgh in both of their playoff matchups is meaningless trivia, because those games took place in 1982 and 1994. The only negative for Pittsburgh going into this game is that Roethlisberger suffered a concussion in the season finale versus Cleveland. Assuming that he is not bothered by any aftereffects from that injury, Pittsburgh should dominate this game.

Pittsburgh will win, 27-7

Monday Night Football Quick Hits: Panthers Run Over Buccaneers, 38-23

The Carolina Panthers bludgeoned the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a powerful and speedy running game, chewing up 299 yards on the ground in a 38-23 win. DeAngelo Williams gained a franchise single-game record 186 yards on 19 carries and Jonathan Stewart added 115 yards on 15 carries; each running back also scored two touchdowns. They are the first teammates to gain 100 yards in the same game while each scoring at least two touchdowns and each averaging at least seven yards per attempt. Although Jake Delhomme did not have a great performance (two interceptions, 73.5 passer rating), Steve Smith caught nine passes for 117 yards and one touchdown, his 23rd 100 yard game since 2005, the most by any NFL player during that period. The Panthers deserve a lot of credit for their game plan, their blocking and their running but this is a shocking setback for a Tampa Bay defense that held them to 40 yards rushing in a 27-3 Buccaneers rout in week six.

Carolina's stunning success on the ground overshadowed a brilliant aerial performance by Tampa Bay's Jeff Garcia and Antonio Bryant. Garcia completed 24 of 38 passes for 321 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a 107.5 passer rating, while Bryant caught nine passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Garcia and Bryant were teammates on the 2004 Cleveland Browns. Isn't it interesting how many players have success before and/or after being Browns but don't reach their full potential in Cleveland--or play well in Cleveland (as Bryant did, catching 69 passes for 1009 yards in 2005) only to end up on other teams? This is an indictment of how badly the team has been mismanaged and how poorly it has been coached, not just by the current Phil Savage-Romeo Crennel regime but dating all the way back to when the Browns rejoined the NFL in 1999.

Most of the Super Bowl talk this season has been about the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans but if the 10-3 Panthers win their final three regular season games--including a showdown with the Giants--then they will be the number one seed in the NFC playoffs. Meanwhile, the 9-4 Buccaneers have a one game lead over the contenders for the first Wild Card spot and could still claim the NFC South title if they win out and the Panthers stumble.

Here are some notes/comments about Sunday's action:

*It is not much fun to be a Cleveland Browns fan right now; not only will many ex-Browns players, coaches and executives be participating in the playoffs while the Browns will be home again in January but the team is lousy and is getting worse as the season goes along. After a Kerry Collins interception set the Browns up at Tennessee's 25 yard line in the first quarter, Cleveland had a four play, two yard "drive" for a field goal in their 28-9 loss to the Titans. That's not a drive. That's not even a Sunday stroll. That's just...pathetic. Other Cleveland "drives" in that game included three plays for two yards (punt), four plays for nine yards (punt), four plays for zero yards (punt) and, my personal "favorite," three plays for negative four yards (interception). I wonder if all the morons who cheered as Derek Anderson writhed in pain last week after suffering a season-ending injury enjoyed watching third stringer Ken Dorsey struggle to throw the ball farther than 10 yards--not that their classlessness would be justified if Dorsey could actually play but being happy about Anderson's injury is not only cruel but does not even make sense at any level when you know that his replacement simply does not have the arm strength to be an NFL quarterback. I will never understand what Anderson did to become the object of such hatred; last season he became the Browns' first Pro Bowl quarterback in two decades and, based on how this team is managed and coached, it might be two decades before another Browns quarterback plays in the Pro Bowl. The fans have all but run Anderson out of town; it would not surprise me at all if he became a Jim Plunkett-type, achieving success with another team. He is tough and has a strong arm and it would be interesting to see what he could accomplish on a team that has a good coach and a supportive, championship-level environment.

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported that the Browns are considering the idea of bringing back Marty Schottenheimer as a replacement for Romeo Crennel. People may mock Schottenheimer for his less than stellar postseason record but at least his teams actually qualify for the playoffs; he sure has gotten a lot closer to the Super Bowl than the Browns have since they fired him 20 years ago. I'd much rather hear him say "There's a gleam" than hear Browns coaches talk about guys who played really hard--and then got their heads kicked in by the Steelers and pretty much everyone else on the schedule. One Cleveland columnist has already bashed the idea of hiring Schottenheimer, saying that the Browns need a long term solution, not a 65 year old retread. Yeah, why would the Browns want to hire a respected, successful coach? Ever heard of Dick Vermeil, who never won the "big one," left the NFL as the poster child for "burnout" and then came back from a long stint as a broadcaster to lead St. Louis to a Super Bowl victory?

Of course, it is important to remember that the football writing "experts" in Cleveland played a role in running off Schottenheimer--and later Bill Belichick--in the first place.

*"Bretty and the Jets," as Chris Berman refers to them, may be in the process of crashing to Earth and finishing with pretty much the record that I originally predicted that they would have. We all know that 99% of the members of the media love Brett Favre and after the Jets beat Tennessee and New England in consecutive games you would have thought that a lot of those writers and broadcasters had died and gone to heaven--but now the Jets have lost two straight games, including this week's 24-14 defeat at lowly San Francisco. Brett Favre went 20-31 for 127 yards, no touchdowns, one interception and a 60.8 passer rating versus the 49ers; Favre had a 60.9 passer rating last week in the Jets' 34-17 loss to Denver and did not have a touchdown pass in that game either.

Favre currently ranks 13th in the NFL in passer rating (88.2), trailing both the quarterback the Jets traded to Miami to make room for him (Chad Pennington, 93.7 rating, fifth in the NFL) and the quarterback who replaced him in Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, 92.1 rating, eighth in the NFL). Favre is tied with Gus Frerotte with a league-high 15 interceptions, already matching his total from last year with three games to go.

*Meanwhile, "high school quarterback" (as Cris Carter called him) Matt Cassel and the New England Patriots are tied for first place (with the Jets and the Dolphins) in the AFC East with three games left in the season. Cassel bounced back from a tough game against Pittsburgh to complete 26 of 44 passes for 268 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and a solid 84.3 passer rating in New England's 24-21 win at Seattle. The Patriots have had to overcome not only Tom Brady's season-ending week one injury but also a season-ending injury to starting running back Laurence Maroney and a string of injuries to defensive starters.

*It was a bizarre Sunday for the Dallas Cowboys. They blew a 13-3 fourth quarter lead at Pittsburgh to lose 20-13--but still moved up into the second Wild Card slot because the Atlanta Falcons (who are 8-5, just like the Cowboys) lost to the New Orleans Saints and thus have a worse NFC record than Dallas does.

In most sports when a team has a Hall of Fame a caliber player he is the central focus of their attack. Looking at the Cowboys, Terrell Owens is the only offensive player who I'm sure will be a Hall of Famer--and even though he turned 35 on Sunday it's not like he's lost a step: he is averaging 15.4 yards per reception this season (a half yard better than his stout career average) and he is tied for second in the league with nine touchdown receptions, including the Cowboys' only TD versus Pittsburgh. Owens caught three passes for 32 yards in the Pittsburgh game and it is befuddling that Dallas does not utilize him more frequently.

Usually, the Monday Night Countdown crew is pretty hard on Owens but even they realize that Owens should be a bigger part of Dallas' offense. Cris Carter noted that for years Owens has been a player who makes big plays and that it is vitally important to produce points out of the passing game. Point blank, Carter said, "You have to get him the football...When Santa Claus is coming around (i.e, in December games), Tony Romo is passing out losses and turnovers." Tom Jackson, normally one of Owens' harshest critics, said that Owens will likely finish second on the career list in all of the important receiving categories so it is strange that Tony Romo seems to go away from Owens at the end of games. Keyshawn Johnson offered a slightly different perspective, saying, "I don't think that Tony Romo has as much trust in Terrell Owens as in Jason Witten in those situations." He added that Romo and Witten are roommates on the road, while Owens has sometimes taken public shots at Romo (I don't remember that; it seems to me that Owens has defended Romo in public, including the famous time that Owens cried after a playoff game and pleaded with the media to not blame the loss on Romo). If Romo is truly making decisions about who to throw the ball to based on being his buddy--and not based on football skills--then the Cowboys are in serious trouble, but I'm not convinced that Johnson's analysis is correct.

Johnson also said that quarterbacks are "selfish" in the sense that they want to throw to guys who make plays for them; Romo's first two interceptions in the Pittsburgh game were thrown in Owens' direction, so Johnson believes that Romo was hesitant to throw to Owens after those plays. That does not really wash, because Owens made both his touchdown reception and a first down catch on a drive that led to a Dallas field goal after those interceptions happened. Also, if Romo and Witten have such a "bond," as Johnson claimed, then why were they so out of sync at the end of the game? Pittsburgh scored the game-winning touchdown on Deshea Townsend's interception return after Romo threw a pass in Witten's direction. Dallas' final offensive play wa a Romo pass to Witten that fell incomplete as Witten did not even turn around to try to catch the ball; if Owens had done that you can bet that his gaffe would be headline news. ESPN's Trent Dilfer said that reviewing the tapes of those plays, he concluded that Romo bears some responsibility but that protection breakdowns up front caused Romo to rush the throw that was intercepted and to "freelance" on the incompletion, a play that was designed to go to Patrick Crayton, who was open.

This just should not be that complicated: when Owens is single covered, the ball should be thrown his way; when Owens is double covered, he should take his defenders deep and thus leave a hole in the middle of the defense in which Romo can make an easy completion to someone else.