V Thoughts About Super Bowl XLVII

I: The term "elite" is thrown around far too casually but, regardless of how we should properly characterize Joe Flacco's overall body of work and/or current ranking among NFL quarterbacks, it is indisputable that Flacco just authored one of the greatest postseason runs ever by a quarterback: 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while leading the Baltimore Ravens to road victories against teams helmed by the two best quarterbacks of this era (Tom Brady and Peyton Manning) en route to capturing the Super Bowl MVP after dissecting a dominant San Francisco 49ers defense by completing 22 of 33 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Call him Bazooka Joe, because he has a cannon for a right arm, a cannon that blows apart opposing defenses with accurate downfield shots at crucial moments.

II: Boomer Esiason nailed it; Esiason gave his CBS colleague (and former Ray Lewis teammate) Shannon Sharpe credit for directly asking Ray Lewis about Lewis' role in the still-unsolved double murder of Jacinth Baker and Richard Lollar for which Lewis pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice but Esiason bluntly stated what no one on ESPN (and just about every other media outlet) dared to say: Lewis' answers about that crime are completely unsatisfactory and Lewis' legacy is tainted by that crime. Lewis' comments to Sharpe were particularly callous and heartless; Lewis said "God has never made a mistake" and Lewis not only took credit for paying money to the victims' families (which he did not out of the kindness of his heart but to settle civil lawsuits) but he declared that his success on the football field after those murders proves his innocence because he believes that God would never elevate to prominence someone who did wrong. By Lewis' twisted standard, no successful person could ever be convicted of a crime; apparently, Lewis never heard of Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin and a myriad of other historical figures who attained lasting fame/notoriety while committing horrific crimes. I am not equating Lewis with Hitler and Stalin but the point is that it is presumptuous for anyone--let alone a man like Lewis who has yet to divulge all that he knows about the double murder--to speak for God and/or God's plan. Lewis' abilities/success as a football player do not justify anything that he does off of the football field, though it is obvious that he and many others think otherwise; far too many athletes, members of the media and fans apparently believe that if someone can get 15 tackles in a playoff game then it is OK if that person literally gets away with murder (or, at the very least, is an accessory to murder by keeping silent).

If Lewis truly wants to be a great humanitarian then he must give a complete account of what really happened on the night of the double murder--period, point blank. Nothing else that he says or does will ever outweigh his role as participant and/or accessory in that crime. Lewis can start by explaining what happened to the clothes he was wearing that night, then he can explain how blood from one of the victims (Jacinth Baker) ended up in his limousine and finally he can detail exactly what he did and/or saw during the two killings.

III: Before the Super Bowl, Colin Kaepernick said that there is no reason to be nervous before a game as long as you prepare properly. That sounds good but the reality is that great performers ranging from Johnny Carson to Emmitt Smith have all admitted to being very nervous before appearing on the biggest stage--and Kaepernick himself certainly looked nervous at times during the first half of the Super Bowl. Kaepernick was in a bit of denial prior to the big game but he adjusted well and he almost led his 49ers to the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.

IV: Steve Young said that the Super Bowl is often decided in the first half because one team is not quite ready and falls too far behind due to mental errors and mistakes. Even though the 49ers ultimately made the game close, Young's description proved to be accurate (although his prediction about who would win was wrong) and it must be admitted that the game was essentially decided in the first 30 minutes (or, to be precise, the first 31 minutes, as the Jacoby Jones kickoff return on the opening play of the second half effectively put the game out of reach).

V: I don't have access to the "all 22" coaches' film so maybe I am missing something but I just do not understand why the 49ers did not run four plays out of the Pistol formation once they reached Baltimore's five yard line on their last drive of the game; the passes that the 49ers attempted were high risk, low reward and I do not believe that the Ravens could have stopped the run/pass option four straight times with the game on the line: the 49ers could have spread the Ravens out to mitigate the pass rush and then Kaepernick would have been able to either run for the score or else pass to a receiver who was single-covered. Yes, everything seems a lot simpler when viewed from one's living room couch as opposed to when viewed from the sidelines of the biggest game of the year but I think that John Harbaugh outcoached Jim Harbaugh in that crucial sequence of plays.

Analyzing the "Harbaugh Bowl"

Super Bowl XLVII will likely always be called the "Harbaugh Bowl" (or "Harbaugh Bowl I" if brothers Jim and John Harbaugh face each other more than once in the NFL's biggest game) but the outcome will not be decided by coaching--the two excellent coaches will cancel each other out--but rather by matchups and the ability to execute under pressure.

The 2000 Baltimore Ravens won the franchise's first and only Super Bowl with a dominant defense supplemented by just enough timely scoring: their blueprint was to hold opposing teams to fewer than two touchdowns (they gave up a league-best 10.3 ppg during the regular season and an astonishing 5.8 ppg in four postseason games) and then figure out how to muster up at least 14 points from the offense and special teams (and, occasionally, the defense). The 2012 Ravens score 4.1 ppg more than the 2000 Ravens did and they allow their opponents to score 11.2 ppg more than the 2000 Ravens did; the 2012 Ravens gave up 19 ppg in their three playoff wins prior to the Super Bowl but they scored 30 ppg. Quarterback Joe Flacco may be the best long ball passer in the league, so the 2012 Ravens can threaten the entire field and thus spread the defense out to pave the way for the Ray Rice-led rushing attack.

The San Francisco 49ers were established as the early favorite and even though the initial line has tightened a bit the oddsmakers still lean toward the NFC Champion. Second year quarterback Colin Kaepernick became a starter when Alex Smith suffered a concussion and Kaepernick kept the job by proving that he could provide a big play dynamic that Smith lacks; Kaepernick initially made his name as a runner but he also has a strong arm and he reads defenses surprisingly well considering his lack of NFL experience. The 49ers are a big, physical team on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in rushing--the hallmark of a physical offensive team--and second in points allowed. Kaepernick shredded the Green Bay Packers with 181 yards rushing (setting the NFL single game record for rushing yards by a quarterback in the regular season or playoffs) in a 45-31 Divisional Round playoff win and then he picked apart the Atlanta Falcons with 16-21 passing for 233 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in a 28-24 NFC Championship Game win.

The biggest key to the Super Bowl will be whether or not the Ravens can contain the running game featuring Frank Gore, LaMichael James and Kaepernick without getting gashed by Kaepernick's precision passing. My rooting interest in this game is well-documented--my heart does not want to see Ray Lewis lead Art Modell's former team to victory--but that does not affect my ability to objectively analyze this contest: I would pick the Ravens if I thought that they were the better team but, even though they may be able to match the 49ers' physicality, the Super Bowl will be decided by two or three explosive offensive plays created by the hands and/or feet of Kaepernick. San Francisco will win, 31-21.

Pro Football Hall of Fame Must Never Enshrine Art Modell

When Art Modell passed away last September, this is how I summarized his legacy: "In one of the most famous scenes in cinematic history, Marlon Brando (playing boxer Terry Malloy in On the Waterfront) laments, "I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am, let's face it." Modell could have been a Cleveland hero, a beloved figure and a Pro Football Hall of Famer but instead he is widely viewed as a betrayer. His downfall is his own fault but that does not make it any less tragic; indeed, the hubris and shortsightedness that often leads to ruin are the very essence of tragedy."

Modell is a Finalist for enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Terry Pluto brilliantly explains why Modell's career falls far short of Hall of Fame quality. You should read the entire article but here is a particularly noteworthy passage:

When it comes to winning, the strongest statement for Modell in the Hall of Fame is really a case for Blanton Collier to be in the Hall of Fame. 

Modell bought the Browns in 1961. He fired legendary coach Paul Brown a year later. Many Browns fans still hold that against him. After researching my book, Browns Town 1964, most of the members of that championship team told me that Modell made the right move. Brown had become rigid and very impatient with his players. 

Collier was a Paul Brown disciple, only with a personality better suited to the players of that era -- and a more modern approach to the game. In Brown's last four years in Cleveland, his records were 7-5, 8-3-1, 8-5-1 and 7-6-1. In Collier's first four, the Browns were 10-4, 10-3-1, 11-3 and 9-5. 

Collier made them a better team, period. 

From 1962-69, the Browns went to the NFL championship game four times in eight years, winning in 1964. Collier's record was 74-34, a .688 winning percentage. Collier also ran the football side of the front office.

Collier retired as head coach in 1971. In the next 25 years, the Browns were 187-188 ... with 12 winning seasons. Modell went through seven coaches after Collier, and only two had winning records -- Nick Skorich (30-24) and Marty Schottenheimer (44-27). Modell's playoff record after Collier was 4-10. 

That is Modell's resume as the Browns' owner: one good coaching hire leading to a brief period of success, followed by a quarter century of mediocrity culminating in financial ruin--something that is very difficult to do in a league that is flush with cash and that makes a point of distributing that cash as evenly as possible. Even the infusion of cash Modell received by fleeing to Baltimore only temporarily made him solvent and just a few years after traitorously abandoning the loyal Cleveland fans Modell was forced to sell his team--negating the very reason he gave for moving in the first place (namely, to keep the team in his family). It would be a travesty if the Pro Football Hall of Fame opens its doors to Modell; the only Halls of Fame he belongs in are the Hall of Mediocrity and the Hall of Betrayal.

Ray Lewis' Legacy

Ray Lewis is indisputably a great football player and he may be the greatest middle linebacker of all time. Ever since he announced that he will retire after the Baltimore Ravens finish their playoff run, there has been a widespread outpouring of respect, admiration and even love directed at Lewis. Lewis is praised not just for his athletic skills and accomplishments but also for his leadership, his character and his humanitarian efforts. Little to no mention is made of his role in a brutal double murder. Lewis was initially one of three men charged with killing Jacinth Baker and Richard Lollar outside of an Atlanta club a few hours after Super Bowl XXXIV (January 31, 2000). After several months of lying to investigators and stonewalling the prosecutors, Lewis avoided a jail sentence by pleading guilty to obstruction of justice and agreeing to testify at the trial of his co-defendants Reginald Oakley and Joseph Sweeting.

The Fulton County medical examiner described the fatal injuries to Baker and Lollar not as random stabbings but rather as "well-directed wounds into vital areas." In other words, this was not a bar fight that got out of control with people swinging wild, uncoordinated punches but rather two cold-blooded murders. Lewis denied participating in the violence, a stance contradicted by some eyewitnesses. Ultimately, prosecutors could not prove that Lewis murdered Baker and Lollar but sworn testimony indicated that Lewis actively covered up whatever actually happened, as noted in the AP story describing Lewis' plea agreement: The bloodstained white suit Lewis wore that fateful night has never been found, Lewis' limo driver stated that Lewis told the limo passengers "Just keep your mouth shut and don't say nothing" and a limo passenger said that Lewis' girlfriend Jessica Robertson burned a photo of Lewis' entourage (thus making it very difficult for prosecutors to track down possible assailants and/or witnesses). Blood matching Baker's was found in Lewis' limo and, as part of the plea agreement, Lewis admitted that he gave a misleading statement to police in the immediate aftermath of the crime.

I don't know if Lewis is guilty of double murder but these are the facts:

1) Lewis' friends became involved in an altercation with Baker and Lollar, with Lewis present on the scene and a witness to what ensued.
2) Baker and Lollar received fatal stab wounds as a result of this altercation.
3) Lewis testified that Sweeting told him that "Every time they hit me, I hit them" and that he (Sweeting) admitted that he had a knife in his hand when he was throwing punches.
4) Lewis testified that Sweeting, Oakley and Kwame King (a third Lewis friend who was present during the violence but not charged with a crime) each bought knives at a sporting goods store one day before the Super Bowl.

If Lewis did not kill one or both murder victims it is reasonable to assume that he knows who did. Lewis participated in a cover-up for several months until he and his high-priced attorneys arranged the plea bargain that kept him out of jail and saved his football career. Oakley and Sweeting were eventually acquitted--in no small part because Lewis and his entourage provided minimal cooperation, at best, with investigators--and the double murder case has never been solved. Lewis eventually reached out of court civil settlements with the families of both victims.

We will continue to be bombarded with adoring articles and TV stories about Lewis but everyone who soaks up the Lewis hagiography should also take the time to remember Jacinth Baker and Richard Lollar. Ray Lewis' life is not worth more than Jacinth Baker's or Richard Lollar's just because Lewis is a great football player--and while Lewis deserves praise for his work ethic and accomplishments, Baker and Lollar deserve more than just being swept down the proverbial Orwellian memory hole while media sycophants rush to not just give Lewis his due as a player but to almost canonize him as some kind of great humanitarian. Lewis is a great football player but how can one possibly atone for participating in and/or covering up a double murder?

Is it realistic to expect ESPN, the NFL Network and other media entities to devote substantial coverage to the Baker/Lollar case as Lewis' career winds down? No, it is not--but it is disgraceful that those media entities go so far overboard with their praise of Lewis the person without even mentioning that he pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice in an unsolved double murder. Making 10 or 15 tackles in a playoff game does not prove that you are a warrior or a leader or a hero; stopping two murders from happening--or at least telling the truth about those murders so that the killers are brought to justice and the victims' families receive some small measure of closure--is something that a warrior/leader/hero would do. More than a decade later, we are still waiting for Ray Lewis to prove that he is truly that kind of warrior/leader/hero.

Here are two stories about Jacinth Baker and Richard Lollar:

'There is no justice'

Ray Lewis' Trip To The Super Bowl As A Star Kindles Renewed Anger In The Families Of 2 Men Killed After Last Year's Game

Art Modell Remembered

Art Modell, who broke the hearts of Cleveland Browns fans by moving the team to Baltimore after the 1995 season, passed away early this morning at the age of 87. I have been a passionate Cleveland Browns fan for most of my life and I hate what Modell did but I never wished physical ill on him; I reserve such thoughts for tyrants, mass murderers and people of that ilk. I did fervently hope that Modell's Baltimore Ravens would never win a Super Bowl (sadly, the Ravens won Super Bowl XXXV) and I still fervently hope that Modell will never be inducted in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Though younger Cleveland fans who despise LeBron James for abandoning the Cleveland Cavaliers may disagree, Modell will likely always be the most hated figure in Cleveland sports history. The sad thing is that it did not have to be this way. Modell was a beloved figure for most of his time as the Browns' owner and if he would have kept the team in Cleveland he would have been viewed as a civic hero. The Browns won the 1964 NFL championship during Modell's fourth season as owner and that remains the last major title captured by a Cleveland professional sports franchise. The Browns lost the 1965 NFL championship 23-12 to the dynastic Green Bay Packers and also lost in the 1968 and 1969 NFL championship games, thus missing out on opportunities to play in Super Bowls III and IV. The Browns missed the playoffs in 1970 but qualified for postseason play in 1971 and 1972 before enduring an eight year drought.

My earliest football memories date back to the final portion of that drought, specifically the 1978 season when the Browns went 8-8 and showed a lot of promise. When I was a kid I thought that Modell was a great owner: he seemed so passionate about the team and it appeared that he would spare no expense in his attempts to bring a Super Bowl title to Cleveland, which of course is ironic in light of the way that Modell later betrayed the city's loyal fans. Some of my fondest early sports memories relate to the Kardiac Kids teams of 1978-80; the Kardiac Kids only made the playoffs once--losing a January 4, 1981 AFC Divisional playoff game to the eventual Super Bowl champion Oakland Raiders--but those players forever earned a place in the hearts of Browns' fans: team stars Brian Sipe (1980 NFL MVP), Ozzie Newsome (1999 Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee), Mike Pruitt, Greg Pruitt, Clay Matthews, Dave Logan, Reggie Rucker and Joe DeLamielleure (2003 Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee) remain among my favorite players of all-time and I also fondly recall Calvin Hill, Dino Hall, Keith Wright, Thom Darden, Ron Bolton and many other Kardiac Kids. When drug abuse became a rampant problem in the NFL and pro sports in general during that era, Modell helped to create the Inner Circle group to counsel and treat Browns' players who were struggling with addiction issues.

After a few down seasons in the early 1980s, the Browns acquired quarterback prodigy Bernie Kosar--a Northern Ohio native who won a national championship at Miami and then graduated with a double major at the age of 21--in the 1985 Supplemental Draft. Kosar earned a Pro Bowl selection in 1987 and he led the Browns to three AFC Championship Games in a four season span (1986-89) but each time the Browns came up short against the Denver Broncos; two of those losses were so painful that they have been permanently branded with shorthand descriptions of the team's downfall (The Drive and The Fumble). Injuries robbed Kosar of his ability to stay on the field, let alone remain a top notch quarterback, but when then-young Coach Bill Belichick cited Kosar's "diminishing skills" as the reason to cut the beloved local hero in 1993 both Belichick and Modell received a lot of criticism from the Cleveland media. Strategically, Belichick was right--Kosar never again established himself as an NFL starter, though he did win a Super Bowl ring as Troy Aikman's backup in Dallas--but the way that the Browns abruptly got rid of Kosar rubbed people the wrong way (and perhaps foreshadowed how Modell would later betray the team's fan base in a much more profound manner).

Belichick rebuilt the Browns much the way he later rebuilt the New England Patriots, leading Cleveland to an 11-5 record in 1994 and the franchise's most recent playoff victory (a 20-13 triumph over Bill Parcells' Patriots), but this would turn out to be the franchise's last hurrah. Unbeknownst to the general public, Modell had literally mortgaged the team's future in a reckless attempt to buy a championship and he found himself in desperate financial straits. He should have sold the team to his minority partner Al Lerner--the man who ultimately brought the Browns back to Cleveland as an expansion team in 1999--but Modell stubbornly refused to do this because he wanted to eventually pass the ownership to his adopted son David. Publicly Modell acted like he was trying to keep the Browns in Cleveland but privately he sneaked away to Baltimore and arranged a very profitable deal that not only resolved his fearsome debt but also rewarded him lavishly for bringing an NFL franchise to Maryland to replace the Colts, who infamously fled Baltimore in moving fans in the middle of the night back in 1984. When news of Modell's betrayal became public knowledge during the 1995 season, the Browns collapsed on the field and Modell became persona non grata in his adopted hometown. Modell fired Belichick after the 1995 season and although the Ravens did win one Super Bowl the whole sorry saga was a very Pyrrhic victory for Modell: Belichick--using the same blueprint he tried to employ in Cleveland (despite Modell's incessant meddling)--created a dynasty in New England and Modell's dream of keeping the team in his family crumbled when he once again mismanaged his finances and was thus compelled to sell the team to Steve Bisciotti in 2004.

Modell is considered a huge figure in NFL history--serving as an influential owner for more than four decades--though his role in the development of the Monday Night Football package has been overstated; NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle and ABC impresario Roone Arledge deserve the bulk of the credit for MNF's success. Bill Livingston mentioned two excellent reasons that Modell should be remembered as a mediocre owner: (1) The Cleveland Browns posted a lackluster 161-174-1 record during the final 22 seasons under Modell (including eight playoff appearances and seven seasons with double digit losses) and (2) "As a businessman, he managed to lose money hand over fist as an NFL owner. It is a feat of impressive ineptitude." The NFL is essentially a socialist monopoly that virtually guarantees that all 32 team owners will make a profit, yet Modell managed to go broke twice--once in Cleveland and then a second time in Baltimore just a few years after he received a sweetheart deal to move the Browns.

In one of the most famous scenes in cinematic history, Marlon Brando (playing boxer Terry Malloy in On the Waterfront) laments, "I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am, let's face it." Modell could have been a Cleveland hero, a beloved figure and a Pro Football Hall of Famer but instead he is widely viewed as a betrayer. His downfall is his own fault but that does not make it any less tragic; indeed, the hubris and shortsightedness that often leads to ruin are the very essence of tragedy.

Baltimore's Playoff Run Revived Echoes of What Might Have Been for Cleveland

Hall of Fame tight end Ozzie Newsome spent his entire 13 year NFL career with the Cleveland Browns. After he retired, then-Browns Coach Bill Belichick hired him to be a scout. Newsome steadily worked his way up in the organization and by the time Owner Art Modell moved the franchise to Baltimore prior to the 1996 season Newsome was the team's director of player personnel, meaning that he was in charge of deciding who the Ravens would draft. Newsome's first two choices--Ray Lewis and Jonathan Ogden--became perennial Pro Bowlers and the cornerstones of the 2000 Super Bowl champions. Newsome became Baltimore's General Manager in 2002.

I have often told anyone who would listen that Bill Belichick was in the process of turning the Browns into a Super Bowl team when Modell ruined everything by announcing in the middle of the 1995 season that he planned to move the team, turning the final half of that campaign into a nightmare scenario for Belichick and his players. Modell "rewarded" Belichick's hard work and loyalty by unceremoniously firing him right after that season. Belichick had taken over a team that went 3-13 in 1990 and by 1994 the Browns were an 11-5 squad that won a playoff game (sadly, the Browns have not won a playoff game since then). No coach could have had a successful season under the circumstances that Belichick and his players had to endure in 1995 but I always believed that the next time Belichick got a head coaching job he would lead that team to a Super Bowl win. Obviously, Belichick has done that and more since arriving in New England.

With Belichick winning three Super Bowls as a head coach and his former scout Newsome winning a Super Bowl as an executive, it is only natural to wonder how many Super Bowls Belichick and Newsome would have won in Cleveland. Someone asked Newsome that very question prior to Baltimore's 23-14 loss to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game and Newsome replied, "Would we have had the opportunity to get to a Super Bowl once, maybe twice? I'd say yes, we would have." The most bizarre thing about Modell's tenure as Browns owner is that he managed to not only drive his team to the brink of financial ruin but he also was on the verge of personal bankruptcy by the time he accepted the huge windfall offered by Baltimore--and despite all of that largesse he was in such dire financial straits just a few years later that he was forced to sell the team to Steve Bisciotti. Ironically, Modell had claimed that one of the reasons he left Cleveland was that he had wanted to keep ownership of the team in his family but despite the king's ransom he received to turn his back on loyal Browns' fans the team ultimately did not stay in the hands of the Modell family.

There have been plenty of bad NFL owners who put losing products on the field year after year but it is almost impossible to own an NFL team and lose money because the league is almost socialistic in the way that it divides up its various revenue streams (something that Dallas owner Jerry Jones has always resented, because he feels like his marquee franchise is generating more revenue than other teams and thus should get a bigger piece of the pie). Maybe someday someone will track down the real story of what Modell did with all of his money to go broke as an NFL owner not once, but twice; you can make fun of the Bengals, Lions or whoever else all you want but the owners of those and other sad sack NFL teams are laughing all the way to the bank with big profits: the only other modern NFL owner I can think of who went broke was Leonard Tose and he was a compulsive gambler.

Although some people say that the infusion of cash from Bisciotti enabled Baltimore to win the Super Bowl, Newsome disagrees with that assessment: "Those (cash) problems we endured in Baltimore, we were able to overcome those (before Bisciotti's infusion). We built this team in the first three years. We were operating off the same budget when we drafted Jonathan (Ogden), Ray (Lewis), Peter Boulware, Chris (McAlister)...The ownership didn't change until 2000." Therefore, Newsome insists that if Modell had not moved the team and had kept Belichick around then the Browns would have become a Super Bowl contender: "I'm saying we would have remained a good football team because it would have started with Belichick. And all of us were there together. You can't write the story without adding Belichick to it." The "all of us" who Newsome referred to is the top notch coaching and scouting staff that Belichick assembled in Cleveland, including not only Newsome but also Nick Saban, Phil Savage, and Scott Pioli--guys who have been involved in building championship programs in the NFL and/or college.

Since the Browns returned to the NFL in 1999, they have been a soft outfit on both sides of the ball, unable to control the line of scrimmage. That is exactly the opposite of the blueprint required to be successful in the AFC North, let alone to win a Super Bowl, as Newsome explains: "One thing you have to understand is the ability to control the line of scrimmage late in the season in this division, and I mean on both sides of the ball. Because the weather becomes a big factor. If you can't control the line of scrimmage, then you're going to have trouble winning."

Belichick and Newsome are long gone from Cleveland. They have made their bones elsewhere and are not coming back. Browns fans can only hope that new Coach Eric Mangini--who was on Belichick's Cleveland staff in the early 1990s--will be able to build the kind of team that Belichick put together a decade and a half ago before Modell broke Cleveland's heart by ripping away the team that is the city's pride and joy.

AFC and NFC Championship Game Previews

Last year, I went 2-2 during the Divisional Playoff round, correctly picking New England and Green Bay but wrongly choosing a pair of 13-3 teams, the Cowboys and the Colts. This year, the top seeds in both conferences--the 13-3 Tennessee Titans and the 12-4 defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants--went belly up at home in the Divisional Playoff round. Those games, plus Arizona's stunning 33-13 road win over 12-4 Carolina (the worst home loss by a second seeded team since the NFL expanded the playoff format in 1990), meant that I went 1-3 during the Divisional Playoff round, with my only correct choice being the reliable Pittsburgh Steelers, 35-24 victors over the San Diego Chargers. The Steelers are now 11-1 in home games in the Divisional Playoffs since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger (they set a record of dubious distinction by losing four out of five AFC Championship Games at home from 1994-2004 but more about that shortly).

My playoff predicting record is a dismal 3-5 so far this season, so I need to be perfect the rest of the way just to match the 6-5 mark that I posted last season. All I can say in my defense is that this year's NFL playoffs have been more wide open and unpredictable than any postseason in recent years--or maybe ever. Home field advantage, playoff seeding, being a hot team or being a cold team--none of these factors seemed to matter at all.

Last week's games featured four rematches of 2008 regular season games and this week's Championship Games are also rematches. Here are my predictions:

NFC Championship Game

The 11-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 11-7 NFC South West Champion Arizona Cardinals.

I've already picked against the Cardinals twice, while I correctly picked the Eagles to beat the Vikings but predicted that their playoff run would end versus the Giants. In other words, I did not expect either team to make it this far. Arizona is the first 9-7 team to host a conference championship game. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner owns a 7-2 career playoff record, including a 1-1 Super Bowl mark and a 29-24 victory over Donovan McNabb and the Eagles in the 2002 NFC Championship Game when Warner played for the Rams. Warner completed 22 of 33 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and a 94.5 passer rating in that game, while McNabb--who has a 9-5 career playoff record, including 0-1 in the Super Bowl--completed 18 of 30 passes for 171 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 73.1 passer rating. Although McNabb has a pedestrian 79.2 career playoff passer rating (Warner's career playoff passer rating is 92.6), McNabb has started in nine playoff victories, trailing only Joe Montana (15), Terry Bradshaw (14), Tom Brady (14), John Elway (14), Brett Favre (12), Roger Staubach (12) and Troy Aikman (11) on the career list. That group is top heavy with modern players due to the multiple expansions of the postseason format in the past few decades and it is worth mentioning that each of the quarterbacks ahead of McNabb won at least one Super Bowl title and made multiple Super Bowl appearances.

The Eagles smashed the Cardinals 48-20 in Philadelphia on Thanksgiving but don't count on the Cardinals playing like they are in a tryptophan induced stupor this time. After sleepwalking through the latter portion of the regular season, the Cardinals have discovered a running game and an opportunistic defense in the playoffs. Arizona defensive end Antonio Smith said, "We had to start it over. Push the reset button and go back to the type of football we were playing at the beginning of the season. Somewhere after we clinched (a playoff spot), we got a little too into ourselves and relaxed on some of the things we focused on before. That's the big difference. This defense has always been a good defense. If anybody watches film and watches us, they will see that." Or you could just ask Jake Delhomme, whose excellent season and fine playoff resume went up in smoke as he threw five interceptions and fumbled once in Carolina's loss to the Cardinals last week.

I would have never imagined that the Cardinals could make it to the NFC Championship Game, let alone host it, but now that they are one home win away from making the franchise's first trip to the Super Bowl I expect Warner to outduel McNabb much like he did seven years ago. Arizona will win, 31-20.

AFC Championship Game

The 13-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 13-4 AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers.

I expected the Steelers to make it to the AFC Championship but thought that they would be visiting Tennessee instead of hosting the Ravens. Baltimore's 13-10 win at Tennessee gave new meaning to the term "head-knocking"; I don't think I've ever seen so many helmets fly off of players' heads in one game. That was a bruising, brutal and ugly game that surely took a lot out of the Ravens mentally and physically. Meanwhile, San Diego hung with Pittsburgh for a half but the Steelers limited the Chargers to one offensive play--a Philip Rivers interception--in the entire third quarter as they cruised to a 35-24 victory.

Both the Steelers and the Ravens play bonecrushing defense and want to establish the running game on offense. The Steelers swept the regular season series between these division rivals, but only won those two games by a combined seven points--and that included an overtime period.

In this matchup of mirror image teams, the only real reason to go against Pittsburgh is that the Steelers are just 1-4 at home in the AFC Championship since 1994. However, two of those losses came at the hands of the New England Patriots--winners of three Super Bowls in a four year span--and the other two losses happened more than a decade ago with a different coaching staff and different players.

Baltimore's defense will probably keep the game close for a half but Pittsburgh will win, 24-9.

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

This year's Wild Card Weekend was a bit odd, as the road teams were favored in all four contests. After looking carefully at each matchup, I decided that there were good reasons that the home teams were underdogs but when the dust cleared two of those home teams won, so I only correctly picked the outcome of two of the four Wild Card Weekend games. However, the only result that really surprised me was San Diego beating Indianapolis; even though the Chargers have played the Colts very tough in recent years, the Chargers were a banged up 8-8 team while the Colts were the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch and featured the league MVP, Peyton Manning. I had Atlanta squeaking by Arizona 27-24 but acknowledged that the Cardinals had a "puncher's chance if Warner puts a lot of points on the board and avoids committing costly turnovers" and that was exactly what happened in a 30-24 Cardinals win. I knew that Baltimore and Philadelphia would prove to be superior to Miami and Minnesota respectively.

Perhaps the most intriguing thing about the four Divisional Playoff games is that they are all rematches of 2008 regular season contests. Here are my predictions:

Saturday's games:

The 12-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 13-3 AFC South Champion Tennessee Titans.

On paper, Tennessee and Baltimore are about as evenly matched as possible. The Titans posted the best regular season record in the NFL this season but these teams tied for the best point differential (8.8 ppg). The Titans won the regular season matchup 13-10 at Baltimore but the Ravens have won four of their previous seven games versus Tennessee. Both teams have bruising running attacks and fierce defenses.

The Titans are a bit banged up on both the offensive and defensive lines; Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are expected to play but center Kevin Mawae's status is less certain and that could obviously have a major impact on Tennessee in both the running game and the passing game.

The Ravens are coming off of a convincing win against a hot Dolphins team but they have to play on the road against a well rested division champion. The key factor will be that Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins must avoid throwing costly interceptions (hint: be aware of where Ed Reed is and do not throw the football anywhere near him).

Tennessee will win, 24-13.

The 10-7 NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals visit the 12-4 NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers.

Arizona looked terrible in the last few weeks of the regular season but surprised a lot of people by beating Atlanta in the Wild Card game. Still, the Cardinals had a negative point differential during the season, went 0-5 in the Eastern time zone and have lost five of their last seven games to Carolina, including a 27-23 road loss this season. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns in that game but the Panthers did not lose at home this season and are not likely to do so versus Arizona.

Carolina will win, 31-17.

Sunday's games:

The 10-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 12-4 NFC East Champion New York Giants.

These division rivals split their 2008 games, with the Giants winning 36-31 at Philadelphia before losing 20-14 at home. The Eagles have won 10 of the previous 17 meetings overall and the Giants have not been quite the same since losing the services of troubled wide receiver Plaxico Burress. Despite New York's superior record, the two teams had virtually identical point differentials. The winner will be the team that is more physical, does a better job of establishing a running game and is able to avoid costly mistakes. New York is the defending Super Bowl champion, a team that made their title run by putting together a record setting road winning streak. They are well rested and I don't think that they will lose to a talented but inconsistent Philadelphia squad.

New York will win, 24-10

The 9-8 Wild Card San Diego Chargers visit the 12-4 AFC North Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10 this season but that score is very deceptive; the referees erroneously nullified a late Pittsburgh TD, the Steelers outgained San Diego 410 yards to 213 and Ben Roethlisberger completely outplayed Philip Rivers, posting a 96.4 passer rating compared to a season-low 44.4 rating for Rivers. The fact that San Diego has beaten Pittsburgh in both of their playoff matchups is meaningless trivia, because those games took place in 1982 and 1994. The only negative for Pittsburgh going into this game is that Roethlisberger suffered a concussion in the season finale versus Cleveland. Assuming that he is not bothered by any aftereffects from that injury, Pittsburgh should dominate this game.

Pittsburgh will win, 27-7

2008 NFL Year in Review/Playoff Preview

In 2007, I correctly picked six of the eight NFL division champions but whiffed on all four Wild Cards; in my 2008 NFL Preview, I also correctly picked six of the 12 playoff teams but in a much different fashion: I only correctly picked two of the eight NFL division champions (Pittsburgh and San Diego) but two teams that I picked as Wild Cards made the playoffs as division champions (Tennessee and the New York Giants), while my other two Wild Card choices (Indianapolis and Philadelphia) were correct. I certainly would like to have been right about at least 75% of my choices but--as I have repeatedly said in this space--more teams go from worst to first (and vice versa) in the NFL than in just about any other league for three reasons: (1) one key injury can wreck a team's season, (2) one loss in a 16 game NFL seasons carries the proportional weight of five NBA losses or 10 MLB losses and (3) many NFL games are not decided until the last couple minutes, so a small number of plays can make the difference between being 10-6 and 6-10.

Some of my picks were just flat out wrong but teams like New England--at 11-5, the Patriots posted a better record than three division champions--and Dallas could very easily have made the playoffs, as I'm sure that most people expected that they would. As for the rise of the Miami Dolphins, I did not see that coming, though I did say that I would not be surprised if Chad Pennington outperformed Brett Favre, which clearly happened throughout the season and in the last game, which was in effect a playoff game for both the Dolphins and Favre's New York Jets. I correctly did not buy the playoff hype about my beloved Cleveland Browns, but I did not foresee that they would finish in last place.

I was right that the Super Bowl champion Giants would return to the postseason--which is not a given considering that 12 Super Bowl winners missed the playoffs the next year, including the Giants after their 1986 and 1990 championships--but I did not expect them to be so dominant with both Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan missing from the pass rush that was so vital to their title run. My projected AFC Championship (New England-San Diego), NFC Championship (Dallas-Tampa Bay) and Super Bowl (New England-Dallas) matchups are all out the window.

For comparison purposes, here are how the preseason picks from five major publications panned out:

Sports Illustrated: 3/8 division champions, 7/12 playoff qualifiers.

Lindy's: 3/8 division champions, 4/12 playoff qualifiers.

Sporting News: 2/8 division champions, 4/12 playoff qualifiers.

Athlon Sports: 2/8 division champions, 3/12 playoff qualifiers.

Pro Football Weekly: 1/8 division champions, 4/12 playoff qualifiers.

My record does not look so bad compared to the records compiled by full-time NFL writers who have credentialed access to the league; I correctly picked more playoff qualifiers than everyone on this list except for Sports Illustrated. Everyone other than PFW correctly picked Pittsburgh and San Diego as division champions; SI and Lindy's were also right about the Minnesota Vikings winning the NFC North.

Here are my picks for this weekend's playoff games and my (updated) selections for the AFC Championship, NFC Championship and the Super Bowl. Last year, I went 3-1 on Wild Card Weekend, 2-2 in the Divisional Round, 1-1 in the Championship Games and 0-1 in the Super Bowl (6-5 overall*).

Saturday's games:

The 12-4 Wild Card Indianapolis Colts visit the 8-8 AFC West Champion San Diego Chargers.

The Chargers were expected by some people to be Super Bowl contenders but only made it to the playoffs because of Denver's unprecedented collapse: the Broncos were in first place every week of the season except for the week that counts the most, when they got drilled 52-21 by San Diego. The Colts got off to a slow start as Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison recovered from knee surgeries, but they are the hottest team in the league now, owners of a nine game winning streak. The Colts beat the Chargers 23-20 in San Diego on November 23; this time around, Indianapolis will win 31-21.

The 11-5 Wild Card Atlanta Falcons visit the 9-7 NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals clinched a weak division and then clocked out for the last month or so, going 2-3 in their last five games. The Falcons, the surprise team of the year other than the Dolphins, won their final three games and four of their last five. Arizona is a good home team with a powerful offense led by Kurt Warner--the 1999 and 2001 NFL MVP who also won the Super Bowl XXXIV MVP--so the Cardinals have a puncher's chance if Warner puts a lot of points on the board and avoids committing costly turnovers but the Falcons just look like the better team overall. Atlanta will win, 27-24.

Sunday's games:

The 11-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 11-5 AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins.

Both teams enter the playoffs playing well, with the Dolphins riding a five game winning streak and the Ravens winning four of their last five, including their final two games. Although they have identical records, the Ravens were a much more dominant team in terms of point differential (9.1 ppg compared to 1.6 ppg). That fact, coupled with Baltimore's 27-13 victory at Miami on October 19, suggests that Baltimore will win, 21-14.

The 9-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 10-6 NFC North Champion Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings won four of their last five games to edge out the Chicago Bears, while the Eagles also won four of their last five, including their stunning 44-6 rout of division rival Dallas in the last game of the season with the final playoff spot on the line for both teams. Although Minnesota has the slightly better record, the Eagles have a significantly better point differential (8 ppg compared to 2.7 ppg). Donovan McNabb can be an up and down player at times but I trust him in a playoff game more than anyone the Vikings can put on the field at the quarterback position. These teams did not play this season, but the Eagles have won the four previous meetings, three of them by at least 11 points. Philadelphia will win, 34-17.

I expect the Tennessee Titans to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game and the New York Giants to defeat the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. My Super Bowl pick is Tennessee over New York.

*1/8/09 correction: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that I was 0-2 in the Divisional round and 4-5 overall.

Monday Night Football Quick Hits: Steel Curtain Edition

The Pittsburgh Steelers spotted the Washington Redskins a 6-0 lead and then their defense bludgeoned Washington into submission in a 23-6 victory. The Steelers improved to 6-2 and they now not only own first place in the AFC North but they also have the second best record in the entire AFC, trailing only the 8-0 Tennessee Titans. The Steelers have the second best defense in the AFC, allowing only 116 points, 13 more than the Titans have given up. Pittsburgh's starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed just 5 of 17 passes for 50 yards and one interception but he scored a touchdown on a one yard quarterback sneak to put Pittsburgh up 10-6 just before halftime. Roethlisberger reinjured his already balky right shoulder on that play and did not return to action in the second half but the Steelers did not miss a beat as backup quarterback Byron Leftwich went 7-10 for 129 yards and a touchdown, including a big 50 yard completion to Nate Washington that set up a Willie Parker touchdown run on the opening drive of the third quarter. The Steelers held NFL rushing leader Clinton Portis to 51 yards on 13 carries; he had rushed for at least 120 yards while averaging at least five yards per attempt in each of his previous five games, a feat matched by only Jim Brown and O.J. Simpson. Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell has had four games this season with a passer rating of over 100 but Pittsburgh harassed him into his worst game of the season by far, intercepting two of his passes, sacking him seven times and limiting him to a pitiful 4.8 yards per attempt average.

The team stats don't really tell the complete story of this game: Washington gained 221 yards of total offense--just three fewer than the Steelers did--but nearly a fourth of that total came on a meaningless drive in the final minutes that ended in a Campbell interception. A better indicator of Pittsburgh's dominance is Washington's 3-15 third down conversion ratio. It is also worth noting that both of Washington's scores--two early field goals--came after "drives" in which the Redskins did not make a single first down; Washington recovered an onside kick on the first play of the game but could not advance the ball and then a bit later the Redskins intercepted Roethlisberger but again could not gain any ground.

Portis summed things up best: "We were hoping to go out and play our football, play smash-mouth football. Instead, we got smashed."

Here are some notes/comments about Sunday's action:

*Dallas, widely considered to be the most talented team in the NFL before the season began, fell to 5-4 after losing 35-14 to the New York Giants. Brad Johnson, starting at quarterback for the Cowboys in place of the injured Tony Romo, was benched after he completed just 5 of 11 passes for 71 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. His first interception almost certainly would have been a touchdown if he had thrown an accurate pass to Terrell Owens on a slant pattern; instead, Corey Webster picked off Johnson's errant throw and returned it 57 yards. The Giants scored a touchdown on the resulting drive to go up 14-0. Johnson was the starting quarterback for Tampa Bay's Super Bowl championship team in 2002; he had 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions that year, leading the league by having just 1.3 % of his pass attempts picked off, but now he is a 40 year old veteran who has already been intercepted five times in just three games as Romo's substitute. The blame here lies not so much with Johnson but rather with whoever in the Cowboys' organization failed to sign an adequate backup quarterback; few starting quarterbacks play all 16 games, so it is imperative to have a backup who can at least be reasonably effective in spot duty. Clearly, Johnson is not capable of filling that job at this stage of his career.

After the game, members of the media tried to goad Owens into making inflammatory comments but he simply replied, "My opinion doesn't matter. I can say it all day. I can give you my opinion right now but all y'all are going to do is bash me on my opinion." Fox Sports' Terry Bradshaw said, "I've got to applaud Terrell Owens. He's done an excellent job of being very, very judicious with his words." Jimmy Johnson added, "I do feel bad for him because they (the media) try to bait him into saying something that's controversial."Even Tom Jackson--a frequent critic of Owens--begrudgingly conceded during Monday Night Countdown that Owens has displayed a lot of maturity with his comments to the media this season.

*The Cleveland Browns squandered a 27-13 second half lead at home versus the Baltimore Ravens and suffered a 37-27 loss that probably ended their playoff hopes. Quarterback Derek Anderson hardly distinguished himself (17-33, 219 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) but he was also victimized by a dropped Braylon Edwards pass on a perfect throw that should have resulted in a long touchdown. The signature memory from this game will no doubt be Anderson's errant screen pass that Terrell Suggs intecepted and ran back for a game-clinching touchdown with 2:43 remaining.

The Browns have already announced that second year man Brady Quinn will start get his first regular season start at quarterback on Thursday night versus Denver. Quinn has looked good in limited preseason action the past couple years but who knows how well that will translate into regular season play; I fear that the Browns may be rushing him into the fray too soon and without a good enough supporting cast around him, two conditions that doomed 1999 number one overall first pick Tim Couch, who possibly could have been a good NFL player in a different circumstance. ESPN's Trent Dilfer, who won a Super Bowl ring as a starting quarterback for Baltimore and briefly played in Cleveland, declared that the Browns' decision reflects the "many layers of dysfunction" in the team's organization, starting at the very top with owner Randy Lerner. Dilfer said, "Number one, it is known that you do not bench a quarterback when you are on a bad football team. You bench a quarterback when it is a good football team and the quarterback is holding you back. This is a bad football team. More importantly, I played in Cleveland for a year and I was shell shocked how this organization at the very highest level is so influenced by public opinion. They listen to the talk radio. The owner for the Cleveland Browns makes knee jerk decisions to fill seats and you cannot be successful in the National Football League now or long term if you are basing your decisions about what the public wants."

The Browns made an exciting run in the latter part of last season but I fear that my initial concerns about Romeo Crennel's coaching and Phil Savage's decision making in the front office were in fact quite well founded; after the Browns lost their home opener 34-7 versus Pittsburgh last season, I wrote, "Savage and Crennel need to put a better product on the field quickly or owner Randy Lerner needs to send their Keystone Kops routine packing and bring in a real football administration that will generate wins instead of excuses." The Browns seemed to show some signs of progress but now it looks like that was just a mirage that masked the reality that the Browns are a disorganized, dysfunctional, losing organization.

Monday Night Football Quick Hits: Terrible Towel Overtime Edition

As a Cleveland Browns fan, watching Pittsburgh play Baltimore is a "good news/bad news" proposition: the good news is that one of the teams will lose but the bad news is that one of the teams will win (a scoreless tie would be nice but unrealistic even for these two defensive-minded teams). Although I root against both teams, I have a confession to make: I greatly respect the Steelers' organization and I wish that the Browns would use that franchise as a template for how to build a team. The Steelers believe in playing physical football on both sides of the ball and their players are disciplined, tough and focused. The Steelers have had three head coaches during my lifetime: Chuck Noll won four Super Bowls, Bill Cowher won one Super Bowl and it would not surprise me if Mike Tomlin--who is only in his second season as Pittsburgh's head coach--wins a Super Bowl at some point. Intelligent, tough minded leadership translates into winning and that is why the Steelers are regularly a playoff team and often a Super Bowl contender. The Steelers don't panic, whine or make excuses; they just get the job done. I wish that the preceding sentences could truthfully be said about the Browns.

Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore 23-20 in overtime, the Steelers' 14th straight home victory on Monday Night Football, extending their own NFL record. This was Baltimore's fifth straight MNF loss, which is tied for the third longest active streak. The Steelers' offense looked horrible during the first half and Baltimore led 13-3 late in the third quarter. Two Steelers--including first round draft pick Rashard Mendenhall--suffered season-ending injuries during the game and the Steelers were forced to use fourth string running back Mewelde Moore but they stayed true to their formula of physical, disciplined football and turned the game around in a 15 second span. First, Ben Roethlisberger connected with Santonio Holmes for a 38 yard touchdown pass to cut Baltimore's lead to 13-10. Then, James Harrison forced Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco to fumble and LaMarr Woodley scooped up the ball and rambled seven yards into the endzone to put Pittsburgh up 17-13. Pittsburgh later extended the lead to seven before Flacco led Baltimore on a 76 yard scoring drive that culminated in a two yard Le'Ron McClain touchdown run to tie the score at 20. After stopping the Steelers, the Ravens had an opportunity to go for the win in a two minute drill situation but they elected instead to play for overtime. The Ravens won the toss but went three and out, after which the Steelers quickly moved into field goal range and Jeff Reed slid a 46 yard kick just inside the left upright.

Baltimore finished the game with more total yards (243-237), more first downs (16-11) and more time of possession (34:22-31:43) but the Ravens committed eight penalties for 72 yards while the Steelers only had five infractions for 29 yards. One penalty in particular really hurt Baltimore: Jarret Johnson committed a personal foul after an eight yard run by Nate Washington just three plays before Roethlisberger's touchdown pass to Holmes. The Steelers had not done much on offense up to that point but those big 15 yards tacked on to the end of the run gave them some momentum and put them in scoring range.

ESPN's Monday Night Countdown show focused on a lot of nonsense but while we are drowning in an ocean of hype and biased commentary, Steve Young provides an oasis of rational analysis. Prior to the game, Stuart Scott tried to hype up the so-called bulletin board material that Steelers running back Mendenhall supposedly provided by sending a text message to his friend, Ravens running back Ray Rice, who promptly revealed the contents of the message to the rest of the Ravens. When Scott asked what Mendenhall should learn from this, Young rightly dismissed the whole issue as a non-story, declaring, "I'll tell you what he found out: that Ray Rice is not his friend. That's what he found out. He didn't say this to the press. He didn't say it to the media. He said it to his buddy in a text message, which can be all kinds of hyperbole that they do between friends. To have your friend send it to Ray Lewis seems a little bit over the top." Scott interjected, "But why take the chance?" Young responded, "Who cares? It's just between friends. It's just for fun. Like he said, 'I would never say that publicly.' Of course he wouldn't, because he's not that stupid. Here's the bottom line, though: I always laughed at teams that would say, 'Steve, we're going to really try to kill you this week.' Really? It's the NFL; it's the fastest game in the history of sports. You can't be any faster; you can't want it any more. Everybody is paid a bunch of money. All this bulletin board stuff, I think, is college stuff. Pro football, especially the Ravens, they are going to come 100,000 miles an hour (anyway). It doesn't matter."

Steve Young is right. Talk doesn't matter. Hype doesn't matter. The Steelers are just a little tougher and a little smarter and that is why they beat the Ravens and took over first place in the AFC North. If Ray Lewis needs some text message from a rookie to get hyped up for a game then he is not as tough or smart as he wants everyone to think that he is. Pittsburgh has made the playoffs in three of the previous four seasons and won one Super Bowl during that stretch, while Baltimore has made the playoffs just once in the past four years, so anyone who knows that history is not surprised that Pittsburgh found a way to win this game. Mendenhall's comments had nothing to do with the outcome of the game.

Here are some notes/comments about Sunday's action:

This was not the Rose Bowl, the Orange Bowl or even the Poulan Weed-Eater Bowl. No, it was the Ineptitude Bowl, hosted by the winless Cincinnati Bengals and won 20-12 by the previously winless Cleveland Browns. With apologies to Gene Rayburn and "The Match Game," "How inept was it?" It was so inept that the teams combined for 15 penalties (nine by Cleveland, six by Cincinnati) and seven turnovers (two by Cleveland, five by Cincinnati). At the end of the game, the Browns received a delay of game penalty when they could not figure out how to get the right 11 players on the field to go into "victory formation" for a kneel down; to be fair, this is not a formation that the Browns have used very often recently. One play epitomized the mutual ineptitude that characterized this contest: late in the first half, Bengals quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick--playing in place of injured starter Carson Palmer--was intercepted by Eric Wright, who apparently thought that this was his opportunity to showcase his open field running skills and ability to choreograph blocking schemes; while Wright ran around and gestured to indicate what his blockers should do, Cincinnati running back Chris Perry rocked his world and knocked the ball loose. Chad Loco Cinco (who was a non-factor with just three catches for 28 yards, though he did catch his first TD of the season) recovered for the Bengals at the Cleveland 45 yard line for a gain of five yards and a first down. Cincinnati then advanced the ball 17 yards in seven plays to kick a field goal to take a 6-3 halftime lead. The Browns scored two third quarter touchdowns and then hung on for dear life to avoid falling into the AFC North cellar.

Browns' fans continue to call for quarterback Derek Anderson's head. Granted, Anderson has hardly distinguished himself this season but last year he was 10-5 as a starter and was selected to the Pro Bowl. He had the best season that a Browns quarterback has had since Bernie Kosar was in his prime. Anderson has the necessary physical tools to be a top of the line NFL quarterback. Yes, he needs to improve his decision making and his accuracy but if you carefully examine NFL history you will find that many championship-winning quarterbacks struggled to some extent before putting everything together. Eli Manning is a good example of this. I'm not saying that Anderson will definitely become a championship-winning quarterback but it is silly and counterproductive to focus so much wrath at him when the Browns are underperforming in so many other areas. Anderson struggled in the first half against the Bengals but in the second half he made some nice throws and led the team on the scoring drives that won the game. Roethlisberger did not look great for much of the game against Baltimore but he got it done when it counted. John Elway used to do that, too; think about it: you don't set records for fourth quarter comebacks unless you made some mistakes earlier in the game to fall behind in the first place. The thing that I hate most about the Browns' quarterback controversy is that it seems like some Cleveland fans are rooting against Anderson just so that they can crow about being "right" that Brady Quinn should be the starter. I want to see the Browns win and I would never root against the team's starting quarterback, whoever he may be. The Browns need to get everyone healthy and back on the field and then they can more fairly evaluate Anderson's performance. Right now, all that can honestly be said is that Anderson can make some throws that few other NFL quarterbacks can make but there are still some rough edges to his game that need to be smoothed out. By the way, Terry Bradshaw did not throw more touchdowns than interceptions in a season until his sixth season and he ended up leading Pittsburgh to four Super Bowl titles. The Browns have done a pretty good job of providing players and/or coaches for Super Bowl winning teams in the past two decades (Earnest Byner, Keenan McCardell, Matt Stover are just three of 59 former Browns who have participated in the Super Bowl since Tony Grossi became the Plain Dealer's beat writer for the Browns in the 1980s), so before they cast Anderson aside they better be sure that he is not going to be the next Jim Plunkett (a so-called bust for New England and San Francisco in the 1970s who led the Raiders to two Super Bowl wins).

The Washington Redskins earned an impressive 26-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas as Jim Zorn became the first Washington coach since George Allen to win his first game in Texas Stadium. Naturally, whenever Dallas loses the "experts" look for excuses to either blame Terrell Owens or assert that Owens is "selfish." Owens finished with seven receptions for 71 yards and one touchdown, plus two rushes for 11 yards. As usual, Owens not only made plays but he attracted extra defensive attention that opened up opportunities for his teammates. Dallas' problem was not on offense--the Cowboys gained 344 yards and converted six of 12 third down plays--but rather on defense: the Redskins gained 381 yards and controlled the ball for 38:09. Clearly, when the Cowboys had the ball they were productive but their defense was not able to get enough stops. Yet, instead of speaking this simple truth, the Monday Night Countdown crew devoted a whole segment to nothing but bashing Owens. Tom Jackson and Chris Berman both said that they have "read this book before and know how it ends," suggesting that Owens will soon be feuding with quarterback Tony Romo. This echoed an earlier Trent Dilfer lament that instead of talking about how well Washington played they were forced to discuss Owens. Guess what, Trent? No one is forcing you to do anything. You are one cog in the machine that calls itself the "Worldwide Leader" and you and that machine can focus your massive resources on whatever you choose to talk about, so nothing is stopping you from devoting a whole segment to what Washington did well as opposed to what Owens is supposedly doing wrong.

Isn't it interesting how Jackson and Cris Carter spent the first month of the season campaigning for the Jets to open up their offense and throw the ball more to take advantage of Brett Favre's talents but they think that it is a bad thing that Owens wants the Cowboys to open up their offense to take advantage of his skills? Owens has more touchdown receptions than anyone in NFL history other than Jerry Rice and the Romo-Owens tandem has produced more TD receptions than any other duo in the league since Romo became a starter. The bottom line is that the Cowboys should have Owens run the deep routes that he wants to run and that when he is single-covered or beats the defense Romo should throw him the ball, whether that is five times a game or 25 times a game; if the defense reacts by double-teaming Owens, then Romo should go elsewhere--but the onus is then on Romo and whoever is "elsewhere" to be productive. Berman, Jackson and the others on the Monday Night Countdown set made a big deal that 19 or 20 of the Cowboys' offensive plays versus Washington involved Owens but that number is meaningless without context. What really matters is how many times Owens was open, how many of those times he got the ball and how productive he was. If Romo threw Owens the ball when Owens was not open, that is not Owens' fault. Owens has said all along that he doesn't care how often he gets the ball as long as the team is winning, so if someone else is open then Romo should throw that guy the ball and keep the chains moving. Owens is not saying that the Cowboys should force the ball to him; he is saying that he wants to run certain routes so that he can get open more easily against the way defenses are covering him, thus enabling him to make more plays. Why is that a bad thing? How is that any different than the Jets opening things up to take advantage of Favre's arm strength? Why is Favre everyone's hero but everyone thinks that it is OK to crap on Owens night and day? I would not suggest that I know more about football than the former Pro Bowl players on the Monday Night Countdown set, so one is forced to assume that at some level they know that what they are saying is not true; they go after Owens either for reasons of personal animus or because the show's producers think that controversy makes for better, more entertaining television. Owens is not perfect--no one is--but you cannot convince me that he deserves even a fraction of the negative coverage that he receives.

Also, who the hell is Keyshawn Johnson to say that if the ball were thrown to him 20 times he'd make 20 catches and his team would win? Johnson also repeatedly said that Owens does not care about winning. The truth is that Owens owns the NFL single game reception record with 20, while Johnson was never the deep threat or reliable scoring option that Owens is, so the only place that Johnson is catching 20 balls is in his overactive imagination. Owens worked hard to rehab a broken ankle and was arguably the best player on the field during Super Bowl XXXIX, catching nine passes for 122 yards as his Philadelphia Eagles lost to the New England Patriots 24-21 as Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb ran out of gas down the stretch. Johnson did play on a Super Bowl championship team in 2002 with Tampa Bay but midway through the next season he was the third leading receiver on the squad when Coach Jon Gruden suspended him for the rest of the season for conduct detrimental to the team. Based on skill set and attitude, Johnson is quite possibly the last person on Earth who should ever open his mouth to comment about Owens' abilities, work ethic or commitment to winning. As for Cris Carter, unlike Johnson he was a great player but it is a little tiresome to hear Carter lecture Owens about character and commitment. Carter is a former drug addict whose off field problems came close to ruining his career; I give Carter all the credit in the world for straightening his life out but as far as we know Owens has never been in trouble with the law and he has always worked extremely hard to develop his God-given talents to the fullest. Owens is a self-made man who should be admired for his work ethic and dedication. Maybe he has not always said the right things but he has always done the right things on and off the field to be the most productive football player he can be. Give me a locker room full of guys like that and I'd gladly go to battle fully expecting to contend for a Super Bowl title every year. One of the reasons that Bill Belichick is so successful is that he ignores what the media says about players and he makes his own judgments. According to the media, Corey Dillon was supposedly a bad guy, a malcontent, but Belichick recognized that Dillon was just frustrated by the unprofessional atmosphere in Cincinnati (as opposed to one of ESPN's favorite receivers, Loco Cinco, who is a major factor in why that atmosphere is still unprofessional) and Dillon went on to be a major contributor to New England's Super Bowl winning team in the 2004 season. I guarantee you that Belichick would sign Owens in a heartbeat if Owens were available.

Isn't it amazing that the same guys who are killing Owens have nothing but good things to say about Steve Smith, a player who on two separate occasions assaulted one of his teammates? Smith has serious anger management issues and he should either be in jail or at the very least be receiving appropriate counseling but instead he is back on the field and the ESPN guys are falling over themselves to praise Smith because after he scored a touchdown he gave the ball to his most recent assault victim, Ken Lucas. If one of your co-workers broke your nose but he gave you a souvenir would you feel satisfied? Would you think that this gesture proved that he was a great guy? What hurts a team more: asking that the offensive game plan fully utilize your abilities or injuring a starting player on your own team and getting suspended? I'd love to hear the full version of what questions Owens was actually asked and the full version of his answers, because a classic mainstream media propaganda technique involves "creative" editing of soundbites; it "works" for everyone from "60 Minutes" to "SportsCenter."

This weekend was sheer heaven for ESPN's crew because they not only seized the opportunity to create a Terrell Owens controversy out of thin air but Brett Favre had a performance for the ages, throwing a career-high six touchdown passes (he had five TDs in a game on three previous occasions, most recently in 1998) as the New York Jets defeated the Arizona Cardinals 56-35. Favre had been hobbled during the week by a left ankle injury but he once again showcased his amazing durability and proved that he still has a lot of ammunition left in his rocket arm. Favre's Arizona counterpart, Kurt Warner, helped out the Jets with a schizophrenic performance that included 472 passing yards, two touchdowns--and six (!) turnovers: three interceptions and three fumbles lost (Warner fumbled a fourth time but Arizona retained possession). Favre rightly cautioned that after this win the Jets should not start printing up playoff tickets or Super Bowl tickets; he understands that Arizona has historically been a horrible road team--particularly on the East Coast--and that you cannot count on forcing seven turnovers (Anquan Boldin lost a fumble in addition to Warner's miscues) every week. The Jets' defense is leaky--giving up 35 second half points--and it remains to be seen if New York can beat high quality, tough minded teams. Nevertheless, when a soon to be 39 year old future Hall of Famer like Favre can add yet another line to his personal record book that is impressive, even if all of ESPN's crowing about Favre is going to look silly by the end of the season when the Jets don't make the playoffs.

Quote of the Week: "Two more flags and you would have had an amusement park."--Ron Jaworski after four penalty flags hit the turf following the opening kickoff of overtime during Pittsburgh's 23-20 overtime Monday Night Football win over Baltimore.

Two Minute Drill: The Patriots Void Pittsburgh's Guarantee

While many pundits jumped off of the Patriots' bandwagon this week--or at least cautioned that the New England-Pittsburgh game would be close--I declared, "a game that is going to be touted all week as an upset in the making will turn out to be a 14 point New England win. You heard it here first." I even offered three possible offensive tactics that the Patriots might employ to good effect: (1) flooding the Pittsburgh secondary with five receivers to burn the Steelers' blitz; (2) using screen passes to the running backs to beat the blitz; (3) running Maroney right at the blitzers to keep them on their heels. The latter two scenarios did not play out (Kevin Faulk only caught three passes for 15 yards and the Patriots only ran for 22 total yards) but the Patriots definitely flooded the Pittsburgh secondary with receivers as Randy Moss (seven receptions for 135 yards and two touchdowns), Jabar Gaffney (seven receptions for 122 yards and one touchdown) and Wes Welker (nine receptions for 78 yards and one touchdown) all had big days. Tom Brady completed 32 of 46 passes for 399 yards, tossing four touchdowns without throwing an interception or being sacked even once. So much for the theory that Philadelphia and Baltimore provided a "blueprint" for slowing down New England's record-setting offense. New England shut out Pittsburgh 17-0 in the second half en route to a 34-13 victory and the Patriots did all of this against a defense that still ranks first in the NFL in both points per game (14.5 ppg) and yards per game (245.5 ypg) even after the numbers from this contest are included in their totals.

Of course, little-used Pittsburgh safety Anthony Smith--whose 15 minutes of fame are now officially over--authored the prologue to one of this game's subplots by guaranteeing a Steelers victory; the Patriots wrote the remaining chapters with their play on the field. "No matter what you say during the week, it comes down to how you play," said Brady. "I think the receivers probably get more motivated than the quarterback. He just happened to have those plays on him. He's the one who has to go back to his team." Coach Bill Belichick does not often comment about players from other teams but even he took a shot at Smith after the game, saying, "We've played against a lot better safeties than him, I'll tell you."

ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli notes, "the Patriots called 33 consecutive pass plays, and they didn't have a designed run in the second half until only 2:49 remained in the game." Do you think that Smith's remarks influenced the Patriots' play calling a little bit? Is the sky blue? Does Bill Belichick wear a hooded sweatshirt? Are the Patriots trying to kill everybody? Yes, yes and yes. Moss offered this description of Brady, who is on the verge of rewriting the single-season records for quarterbacks: "Poise. Patience. And the determination to go out and kill you at any given time." Next up for the Patriots are the New York Jets, a 3-10 outfit coached by Eric "I sent the NFL after Bill Belichick and now I will have to pay the price" Mangini. No extra motivation there, right?

Moss is not impressed by what he has seen or heard from New England's two most recent opponents: "The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, as far as toughness and their mouths, have a lot in common. They do their talking during the week, and we do our talking on the field. I've played in the league 10 years, and I don't think I've ever heard a player say anything like that. To guarantee a victory--that was something hard. I don't know if his team had his back or not."

Speaking of Baltimore, the real Ravens stood up--or, more precisely, meekly submitted--versus the Indianapolis Colts in the Sunday night game. The Ravens are apparently so impressed with themselves for playing a close game with the Patriots--and so indignant about how the officials allegedly stole that contest from them--that they have nothing left in the tank. The Colts scored the game's first 30 points, cruising to a 44-20 win.

Baltimore and Cincinnati are surprise teams this season in the AFC North--but not for good reasons. The pleasant surprise in the division is the Cleveland Browns, who improved to 8-5 with a 24-18 victory over the New York Jets. The Browns made the win more difficult than it should have been, nearly squandering a 17-6 fourth quarter lead, but this is the kind of game that recent Browns squads have lost with depressing regularity; it is worth noting several reasons why this time was different:

(1) the Browns spent the third overall pick in the draft on left tackle Joe Thomas, who has shored up the offensive line, which now provides time for the passing game to click and also blasts open holes for the running backs. The Browns sealed the deal versus the Jets when Jamal Lewis' 31 yard touchdown run on third and four put Cleveland up 24-15 with 1:31 left in the game.

(2) Lewis is the most productive running back that the Browns have had literally in decades.

(3) Derek Anderson is a top notch quarterback who has a strong arm and usually does not look confused, two traits that have been sorely lacking in most of the Browns' recent quarterbacks.

The Achilles' heel for the Browns--and the reason that this team is competing for a wild card spot but is not a legitimate contender for a championship--is their defense. CBS' Randy Cross said that the defense plays well but it lacks consistency. Unfortunately, a couple things that the Browns' defense consistently does are give up a lot of yards (387 versus the Jets, nearly matching the team's league-worst average yield of 389.7 yards per game) and points (an acceptable 18 versus the Jets but a league-worst 27.4 ppg overall). If General Manager Phil Savage can add some playmakers to the defense to match the exploits of Anderson, Lewis, wide receiver Braylon Edwards, tight end Kellen Winslow and special teams wunderkind Joshua Cribbs then the Browns will finally be able to compete with Pittsburgh for supremacy in the AFC North.

Were the Patriots Lucky to Beat the Ravens?

Today on ESPN's "First Take," former NBA guard Greg Anthony and Skip Bayless debated whether or not the Patriots were lucky to beat the Ravens last night. Bayless' take is that the Ravens would have won were it not for Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan calling timeout on one fourth down play where the Ravens appeared to have stuffed the Patriots and then the Patriots committing a false start on the next fourth down play that also seemed to be going nowhere; of course, New England converted a fourth and six after that penalty en route to scoring the game-winning touchdown. Anthony argued that players ease up after they hear an official's whistle, so it is impossible to say whether or not the Ravens really would have stopped the Patriots' initial fourth down play; as for the penalty being lucky, Anthony logically pointed out that in most cases when a team converts fourth and six against a good defense on the road that we praise that team for its execution. Listening to the two of them argue back and forth sounded very much like eavesdropping on someone who has actually competed at a high level and understands what that is all about trying in vain to explain those experiences to someone who has no idea what he is talking about.

Later on the show, former New York Giants Coach (and former Baltimore Ravens assistant coach) Jim Fassel offered his perspective on the timeout that Rex Ryan called. Fassel said that he had no problem with one of his assistant coaches calling a timeout provided it was a critical situation in the game and it was apparent that the team was not lined up correctly or had the wrong personnel on the field; there is not always time for the assistant to ask permission to call timeout or to have a whole discussion about it. As for the specific sequence in yesterday's game, Fassel said that he spoke with Ryan and what happened was the Ravens only had one defensive lineman on the field prior to the first fourth down play. The Patriots love to run a quarterback sneak right up the middle in such cases, so Ryan called the timeout to get the right personnel on the field; if he had not done so and then the Patriots successfully ran the sneak then Ryan would have been rightly criticized for having the wrong personnel group on the field. Fassel said that the smaller players that the Ravens had on the field went after the play so aggressively that it looked like maybe they would have stopped it anyway but that calling the timeout was the right thing to do strategically.

The bottom line is that, as Anthony correctly said, we will never know if the Ravens would have stopped the first fourth and one play if it had gone all the way through and we also will never know what would have happened without the false start penalty on the next play--but good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose. This year, the Ravens are a bad team and the Patriots are a very good team; the Ravens had an opportunity to stop the Patriots on a fourth and six play and did not do it. That--and other blown chances on both sides of the ball--is why the Ravens lost. Bayless always seems to look for ways to blame the losing team instead of praising the winning team for its poise and execution. Next time, Bayless should do what Fassel did: pick up the phone, talk to someone who was actually involved in what happened and apply that information to his analysis.