World Chess Championship Heads to Tiebreakers After 12th Consecutive Draw

Game 12 of the 2018 World Chess Championship match came to a sudden, surprising and disappointing end after World Champion Magnus Carlsen offered a draw in a very promising position and relieved Challenger Fabiano Caruana accepted. The match, tied 6-6 after 12 straight draws, will now be decided by tiebreaker games to be played on Wednesday. The first tiebreaker is a best of four match of Rapid Chess (25 minutes per player per game, with a 10 second increment added after each completed move). The second tiebreaker is a series of up to five Blitz Chess matches of two games each played at a time control of five minutes per player per game, with a three second increment added after each completed move. If neither the Rapid nor Blitz tiebreakers prove decisive, then the World Chess Championship will be determined by a one game, winner take all Armageddon showdown during which White has five minutes and Black has four minutes plus draw odds (thus, a draw is a win for Black). An increment of three seconds per move will be applied after move 60 of the Armageddon game. The players will draw lots for color assignments in these games. The prize fund would have been split 60/40 had the outcome been decided during the 12 Classical games but now it will be split 55/45.

For those who love chess as an art and violent sport, it is sad that the linear, classical World Championship will once again be decided by games contested at fast time controls. This is exactly what happened in the previous World Championship match when Carlsen retained his title by defeating Sergey Karjakin 3-1 in a Rapid tiebreak match. At the time, I acknowledged the entertainment value of those Rapid games but also stated unequivocally that this is a "terrible" way to determine who is World Champion. There are separate championship events for Rapid and Blitz, so deciding the classical World Championship with Rapid (and possibly Blitz and even Armageddon) tiebreaks is like determining the NBA Championship with a Three Point Shootout followed by a Slam Dunk Contest; those are great events but they have nothing to do with crowning a champion.

Bobby Fischer, arguably the greatest chess player of all-time and a tremendous fighter, once responded to a draw offer by growling, "I determine when it is a draw!" He won the 1964 U.S. Championship with an unprecedented 11-0 sweep, fighting to the bitter end to win the last game even though the second place finisher (former U.S. Champion Larry Evans) was hopelessly behind with 7.5/11. It was later said that Evans won the tournament and Fischer won the exhibition. Fischer later won 20 straight games en route to claiming the 1972 World Chess Championship; the mental power, psychological tenacity and personal drive that it takes to prevail in 20 consecutive games against the best players in the world is difficult to quantify or explain--but it stands in marked contrast to Carlsen's approach in this match and particularly in game 12, about which he said flatly, "I wasn't in a mood to find the punch." As Gurney Halleck told Paul Atreides in Frank Herbert's Dune, "What has mood to do with it? You fight when the necessity arises--no matter the mood! Mood's a thing for cattle or making love or playing the baliset. It's not for fighting."

It is evident that, based on Carlsen's match strategy to minimize risk as much as possible in the 12 classical games and then seek victory at faster time controls, Carlsen did not believe that "necessity" had arisen in game 12. Carlsen's strategy may make statistical sense based on a comparison of his prowess at faster time controls compared to Caruana's relative ineptitude at such time controls but this situation indicates that the match's format is flawed if fan excitement and decisive games are paramount values.

It also seems that Carlsen in general has lost some of his fighting spirit/motivation, his confidence or perhaps both. Carlsen's confidence may have been shaken after missing a winning shot in game one. Carlsen's public lament about his favorite chess player being himself several years ago--even if offered tongue-in-cheek--strikes an odd note for a World Champion and the highest rated player ever who one would expect to have tremendous confidence in his repeatedly demonstrated abilities.

Is it possible that, having been World Champion and having surpassed the rating record once held first by Fischer and then by Garry Kasparov, Carlsen has lost the drive to be the champion? He wants to win--anyone in his position would want to win--but does Carlsen still want to work hard enough to win or is he content to just kind of coast and accept whatever outcome happens? Prime Carlsen used to show at least some semblance of the fighting spirit that Fischer almost always displayed, for prime Carlsen used to press minuscule edges until his opponent cracked. Now, Carlsen lacks the willpower or patience for such long-term maneuvering.

Grandmaster Alex Yermolinsky, whose pithy, blunt and informed post-game video commentaries have been a treat to watch, speculated that the problem "may not be the format, but the players." He hypothesized that because Carlsen and Caruana have lived and are living rather sheltered lives without deprivation or risk they do not understand or appreciate what is at stake in a World Championship match. Yermolinsky stated that regardless of the outcome on Wednesday, life will proceed the same way for both players, with invitations to closed tournaments with guaranteed paydays and not much at risk.

Carlsen has already accomplished a lot in chess, and defending his crown against the second highest rated player in the world would further enhance his legacy but from the larger viewpoint of the future of the sport this kind of match is not good from an artistic or sporting standpoint--nor is there reason to believe that circumstances would improve if Caruana becomes World Champion, because throughout this match he has alternately been unable or unwilling to push Carlsen despite the fact that it is obvious that Carlsen is content to have 12 draws. If I were Caruana, I would resent the notion that I am easy prey at any time control.

It remains to be seen if either player has saved up any special opening preparation for these final games. If Carlsen has done so, then Caruana--who is uncomfortable anyway at fast time controls--is toast; if Caruana has a surprise up his sleeve then it will be interesting to see Carlsen forced to react to a novelty with limited time to think.

The tiebreaker games will likely be entertaining, but not as entertaining as it would have been to see the title determined by a decisive result in the classical portion of the match.