Journey to the National Master Title, Part 12

I started the fourth quarter of 2024 with a packed chess weekend. Unfortunately, it was packed with painful losses! I scored 2/4 in the October 5, 2024 Columbus Plus Score tournament. I lost 34 rating points to plummet to 1944. This is the seventh time I have played in a Columbus Plus Score event, and just the second time that I did not achieve a plus score. In the fourth round, I lost to Mehmet Yilanli, the third highest rated seven year old in the United States. Yilanli's published rating for October 2024 was 1696, but his live rating was already 1784 and his post-tournament rating was 1795. 

Things only got worse for me in the October 6, 2024 East Market Round Robin. Originally scheduled as a four round G/45 Swiss, the format was switched to a six round G/25 (with five second increment) round robin because only seven players participated. I lost my first three games before recovering to win my last three games to tie for third-fifth with 3/6. I lost 14 rating points, and my rating slid to 1930. 

In the midst of this disastrous chess weekend, I lost five straight rated games. I cannot remember the last time that I lost five straight rated games. Looking through the past 10 years of my chess performance records, the worst losing streaks that I found were four four-game losing streaks; the most recent one took place in the U2100 section of the 2022 Chicago Open, and the previous one happened in the March 6, 2021 Upper Valley G/45, when I went 0-4 against four players who had each earned or would soon earn the National Master title--a marked contrast to this five game losing streak that included defeats to three players rated below 1800, albeit three players who are underrated kids (one of whom entered the tournament rated 1799 and exited the tournament rated 1857).

I recovered from my "lost chess weekend" to score 3.5/4 in the Columbus G/45 on October 19, 2024, gaining 51 rating points to lift my rating back up to 1981, and tying for first-second with Louis Zhang (who drew with me in the third round).

Louis Zhang (white) versus David Friedman (black), October 19, 2024 Columbus G/45

Then, I scored 3/4 in the October 20, 2024 East Market Swiss, tying for first-third but losing eight rating points to drop to 1973. That marked my 12th first place finish in 2024, tying a personal mark set in 2019. Overall, I scored five wins and three draws during the October 19-20, 2024 weekend, gaining 43 rating points and finishing first twice in one weekend for the first time since April 6-7, 2024.

I entered the October 26, 2024 Cincinnati Tornado with a streak of 11 straight regular rated games without a loss. I won my first round game to extend that streak to 12, but then squandered a winning position in round two and lost to end my streak. I won my last two games to finish with 3/4, earning a tie for second-fourth and gaining three rating points to climb back to 1976.

I won my first two games in the November 10, 2024 East Market Swiss, but then I blundered in my third round game to turn an equal position into a lost position. In the fourth round, I lost for the first time to Keya Jha, the number one rated nine year old girl in the country. I had scored four wins and three draws in our previous games. I lost 19 rating points to drop to 1957.

The Kings Island Open has been one of my favorite tournaments since I first played in the event in 1994. This year, I scored 3/5 in the U2100 section, finishing out of the money and losing 13 rating points to fall to 1944. I won my first two games before facing Gabriel Heyer (1863) in the third round. I had scored 3.5/4 in my previous games versus Heyer, but I had White in each of those games and I had Black this time versus Heyer. He played 1. e3, and I overextended my position trying to "punish" his slightly unorthodox (but sound) opening. 

After round three, I played in the Kings Island Open Saturday Night Blitz, tying for third-eighth out of 35 players with a score of 6/8. There was not a third place prize, but I tied with four other players for the combined U2300/U2100 prize. My USCF blitz rating remained unchanged at 1800, which is my USCF blitz floor; many kids are strong players but have not played many USCF blitz games, so their blitz ratings are hundreds of points lower than their regular ratings: my only two losses were to Sharath Radhakrishnan, whose regular rating is 2248, but whose USCF blitz rating prior to this event was just 1971. He scored 6.5/8 to take clear second behind GM Jianchao Zhou, who finished first with 7.5/8.

In the fourth round versus Carter Evard (1790 after 19 games; 1862 after Kings Island), after mutual mistakes in the opening I "tilted" in this position:

Any normal move--such as 17. Rcd1--keeps the balance. Instead, I played 17. Bxh6??, foolishly and recklessly going all-in for an attack that I should have realized is unsound. My opponent took my B and then pocketed my d pawn after I played 18. Qxh6. Instead of patiently maneuvering to try to obtain an advantage from an equal position, I went for broke on move 17--and got broken! This is the kind of impulsive, unsound chess that I have to eliminate: there is no reason to give up my B for two pawns both in this specific position, and in general versus a player who I should reasonably expect to outplay without taking risks in a patient, positional game.

I scored 3/4 in the November 24, 2024 East Market Swiss, tying for second-fourth and gaining 19 rating points to climb back to 1963. This was a special tournament because my daughter Rachel played. Although she scored 0/4, she had a great time--and when she has a great time, I have a great time as well. This was Rachel's 10th regular rated tournament, and her second appearance at East Market, the site of her first regular rated tournament (March 12, 2023).

Pre-tournament selfie with Rachel at November 24, 2024 East Market Swiss

I started the December 8, 2024 East Market Swiss with 2.5/3, setting up a last round encounter for first place versus top seeded Deshawn Kelley. Kelley won, dropping me into a tie for fourth-sixth. I gained five rating points to lift my rating to 1968, exactly my rating at the start of 2024.

I scored 2/3 in the Dayton Chess Club's December 14, 2024 G/45 Swiss, tying for second-third and gaining three rating points to improve my rating to 1971. In the first round, Kiran Boyineppally (1750) held me to a draw in a wild time scramble, and then he won his next two games to take clear first.

My 2024 chess year concluded on December 28, 2024 at the Cincinnati Tornado. My daughter Rachel played, and this turned out to be one of my favorite events of the year both because we participated together and because I performed very well, scoring 3.5/4 to tie for first-second with the top seeded player (Will Sedlar, 2315) while gaining 42 rating points to lift my rating above 2000 (2013) for the first time since September 2024. This was my second largest single tournament rating gain in 2024, surpassed only by the 51 rating points that I gained in the October 19, 2024 Columbus G/45 tournament. After winning my first two games versus lower rated opponents, I drew with Gajanan Jayade (2128) in the third round and then I defeated FM Hans Multhopp in the fourth round. Sedlar knocked off the only player with a 3-0 score to join me in the winner's circle. Rachel scored 0/3 with a one point bye in round three, but she loves chess so much that she played several casual games during the third round.

Pre-tournament selfie with Rachel at December 28, 2024 Cincinnati Tornado

I entered October 2023 rated 2038 and dropped all the way to 1940 before bouncing back to 1968 by the end of December 2023. This year, I had a 2004 rating in August, and dropped all the way to 1930 before finishing December with a rating of 2013. I am not sure why I have had such dramatic rating fluctuations in the fall months of the past two years, but without those slumps I would be much closer to reaching my goal.

Regarding the challenge of trying to advance from the 1900-2000 range to 2200 in the current era, I found some interesting data confirming my impression that my current level of play is not substantially lower than my level of play during my peak rating years but rather that the rating distribution has shifted unfavorably for players in my rating range. USCF ratings distribution data from 2004 shows that the 2000 rating level was at the 96.9 percentile, the 2100 rating level was at the 98.1 percentile, and the 2200 rating level was at the 99.2 percentile; the USCF ratings distribution data from 2014 shows that the 2000 rating level was at the 97.8 percentile, the 2100 rating level was at the 98.7 percentile, and the 2200 rating level was at the 99.4 percentile. That data demonstrates that the percentage of players who are National Masters (2200 rating level) has stayed about the same (less than 1 percent) but the percentage of players who are Experts (2000 rating level) has decreased. One factor to keep in mind is that the rating pool of National Masters is artificially inflated by older players who have earned a 2200 rating floor but are likely no longer 2200 strength players. In other words, if one excludes the "floored" National Masters then it is possible that the percentage of players who are maintaining a 2200 performance level has decreased just like the percentage of players who are maintaining a 2000 performance level has decreased.

My interpretation of that data is that the small cohort of players who are talented enough and work hard enough to earn the NM title has remained roughly the same size, but overall it is more difficult to maintain an Expert level rating than it used to be. I have not found USCF ratings distribution data more recent than 2014, but based on my personal experience I suspect that the trends noted above have continued or even accelerated: objectively, I would say that my level of play now is not much worse than it was in 2014, but in 2014 I was rated over 2100 while now my rating fluctuates in the high 1900s/low 2000s.

Overall, I performed well in 2024, and I set several personal records for regular rated events, including most first place finishes (13, surpassing the 12 that I had in 2019), most events played (41, surpassing the 39 that I played in 2023), most prizes won (29, surpassing the 24 prizes I won in 2023), highest percentage of events in which I won a prize (70.7%, surpassing the 68.8% prize winning percentage that I had in 2020), most combined first/second place finishes (19, surpassing the 18 combined first/second place finishes that I had in 2023), most games played (167, surpassing the 155 games that I played in 2023), most games won (98, surpassing the 93 wins that I had in 2023), and most draws (33, surpassing the 27 draws that I had in 2012). Also, I won one game versus a National Master, pushing my career total to 81.

I had a good year, but not good enough to earn the National Master title. The biggest challenge is to cut down my losses to players rated below 1800. In the first half of the year I had four such losses, but that number ballooned to seven in the second half of the year, which prevented me from surpassing 2100. Similarly, my draw/loss ratio during the first half of the year was good, but I slipped in that regard in the second half of the year. Overall, though, I made progress, and had my best draw/loss ratio ever, which is a step in the right direction.

My five game losing streak over a two tournament span in October made the difference between a good year and an excellent year. I had winning positions in three of those games, and legitimate opportunities to do no worse than draw all five of them; if I had scored 4/5 in those games then my rating would be close to 2100 now instead of languishing in the low 2000s. The losing streak seems like an anomaly, because I won my next three games, and then the next weekend I finished first in two tournaments, gaining a combined 43 rating points.

In Journey to the National Master Title, Part 8, I listed four chess goals for 2024. Here are those goals, with notes about how I performed:

1) Gain 60 rating points per quarter. I gained three rating points in the first quarter of 2024, improving my rating from 1968 to 1971; I gained 10 rating points in the second quarter of 2024, improving my rating from 1971 to 1981; I lost three rating points in the third quarter of 2024, dropping my rating from 1981 to 1978; I gained 35 rating points in the fourth quarter of 2024, improving my rating from 1978 to 2013. Overall, I gained 45 rating points in 2024, which averages out to 11.25 rating points per quarter.

2) Do not lose any games to players rated below 1800. I lost two games to players rated below 1800 in the first quarter of 2024; I lost two games to players rated below 1800 in the second quarter of 2024; I lost three games to players rated below 1800 in the third quarter of 2024; I lost four games to players rated below 1800 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Overall, I lost 11 games to players rated below 1800.

3) Accumulate more draws than losses. I had 15 draws and eight losses in the first quarter of 2024; I had seven draws and nine losses in the second quarter of 2024; I had four draws and seven losses in the third quarter of 2024; I had seven draws and 12 losses in the fourth quarter of 2024. Overall, I had 33 draws and 36 losses.

4) Maintain a winning percentage of at least .750, to break my personal record of .740 set in 2014. My winning percentage was .686, the fifth best of my career.

Here are my chess goals for 2025:

1) Gain 50 rating points per quarter.

2) Do not lose more than six games to players rated below 1800.

3) Accumulate more draws than losses.

4) Maintain a winning percentage of at least .750, to break my personal record of .740 set in 2014.

In 2024, I scored 98 wins, 33 draws, and 36 losses in regular rated tournament games with 13 first place finishes in 41 events. I lost 11 games to players rated below 1800. My net rating gain for 2024 is 45, so I need to gain 187 points to reach my goal.