Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Djokovic Once Again Bests Federer in a Grand Slam Final

A significant amount of the coverage leading up to the U.S. Open Final focused on Roger Federer as an ageless tennis deity who has remade his game and even developed a new shot (which--with his characteristic humblebrag modesty--he calls "SABR," meaning Sneak Attack by Roger) that supposedly is an unstoppable weapon. That is all well and good, except that this coverage has been rendered largely meaningless by a story that should be the headline grabber but likely will not capture as much attention as all of the praise that has been heaped on Federer: the real story is two-fold, namely (1) Novak Djokovic defeated Federer in the U.S. Open Final in four sets and (2) Djokovic is clearly the best player in the world, even if he has not named a shot after himself or convinced writers that it is their sworn duty to wax poetic about his every breath, move and statement.

Much of the mainstream media coverage of tennis defies logical analysis. It does not make sense to assert that (1) Federer is as good as he has ever been and (2) that he is the greatest player of all-time while relentlessly ignoring Federer's struggles versus Rafael Nadal and Djokovic. If Federer is as good as he has ever been and if Federer truly established himself years ago as the greatest player of all-time then he should still be winning Grand Slams. Otherwise, it is only logical to assert--at a minimum--that even if Federer achieved greatest of all-time status at some point in the distant past he has since been supplanted by Nadal and Djokovic. Logically and conceptually it simply does not compute to say that Federer is the greatest of all-time and that he has developed a new shot that makes him better than ever but that the successes of Nadal and Djokovic are irrelevant in terms of the greatest player of all-time debate--and this does not even take into account the fact that a very good case could be made that Bjorn Borg is better than all three of them.

There is no question that Federer is very durable. That durability has enabled him to amass some impressive career numbers, including his record-setting 17 Grand Slam singles titles. However, Federer has appeared in 66 Grand Slam events and his .258 Grand Slam winning percentage is not even close to the record Grand Slam winning percentage posted by Borg (.407). Borg never lost in the first round of a Grand Slam, he lost in the second round just once and he made it to at least the quarterfinals in 20 of his 27 appearances (.741). Federer has lost in the first round of a Grand Slam six times, he has lost in the second round once and he has advanced to the quarterfinals in 46 of his 66 appearances (.697).

Federer's head to head struggles versus Nadal are well documented, with the tally currently standing at 23-10 in Nadal's favor, including 9-2 in Grand Slam matches and 6-2 in Grand Slam Finals. Nadal has not been nearly as durable as Federer, though Nadal has been durable enough to win at least one Grand Slam for 10 straight years (2005-14), breaking the mark of eight set by Borg and later matched by Pete Sampras and Federer. Nadal is tied with Sampras for second on the all-time list with 14 Grand Slam singles titles but Nadal's Grand Slam winning percentage (.326) is much better than Federer's or Sampras' (.269). Injuries have limited Nadal at various points in his career and especially since the French Open in 2014 (Nadal's last Grand Slam singles title) but Federer has suffered an even longer drought, with his last Grand Slam winning coming at Wimbledon in 2012 (Federer's only Grand Slam title since 2010).

The Djokovic-Federer head to head rivalry is now tied at 21-21, but Djokovic enjoys the edge in Grand Slam matches (8-6) and Grand Slam Finals (3-1). Federer won five of their first six head to head encounters but Djokovic has captured 20 of the next 36, including each of the past three times that they have met in a Grand Slam Final. Djokovic has won 10 Grand Slam titles in 44 appearances (.227) while losing twice in the first round and twice in the second round and reaching the quarterfinals 34 times (.773, a percentage even better than Borg's).

If Federer had defeated Djokovic in the U.S. Open Final then this would have been cited as yet another piece of evidence that Federer is indisputably the greatest player of all-time--but Djokovic's win against Federer seemingly does not in the slightest way dent Federer's claim to that title. When Nadal beat Federer like a drum, Federer's fans made the excuse that Nadal was a clay court specialist. Now, Djokovic is beating Federer on hard courts (U.S. Open), on grass courts (Wimbledon) and on clay (2012 French Open, 2015 Italian Open) but nothing can seem to loosen Federer's supposedly secure grip on the mythical greatest of all-time title.

If Federer were washed up and just playing out the string then one could make the case that at least some of his losses to Nadal and Djokovic should not count when determining the pecking order among these three players--but the reality is that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have been in or reasonably close to their primes from late 2008 to the present. During that time, Federer has been ranked number one in the world for 65 weeks, Nadal has been ranked number one in the world for 141 weeks and Djokovic has been ranked number one in the world for 164 weeks. During that same time span, Federer has won five Grand Slam singles titles, Nadal has won nine Grand Slam singles titles and Djokovic has won nine Grand Slam singles titles. It is difficult to make a reasonable case that Federer is better than Nadal and, considering Djokovic's recent success (three Grand Slam wins in 2015 while appearing in each of the four Grand Slam Finals), it is at least arguable syllogistically that Djokovic is better than Federer as well; after all, if Federer is as good as ever and Djokovic is beating Federer on multiple surfaces than Djokovic is not only better than Federer now but he is better than Federer has ever been.

Just once, it would be refreshing to see a Federer supporter in the media write an article making a point something on the order of "As Federer advanced through this tournament I was reminded of why I like his game so much and why he is so highly regarded but after Federer lost to (Djokovic or Nadal) I was also reminded that, while Federer excels in wiping out the lesser lights, he has never established clear superiority over the other two great players of his time." Federer's SABR turns into a butter knife when he faces Nadal or Djokovic and it is difficult to picture Federer having the necessary mental or physical energy to contend with the relentless Borg in his prime.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

ESPN Whacks Patriots in Knees With Regurgitated and Unsubstantiated Allegations

After NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell's high-priced lawyers got caught with their legal briefs down and were chastised by federal court Judge Richard Berman for their role in helping Goodell impose his own brand of what Judge Berman termed "industrial justice," it was inevitable and predictable that Goodell would put the mafia-style hit (metaphorically speaking) on the Patriots (which is not to suggest that he ordered or told ESPN to do anything but merely that ESPN--like any loyal capo--knows what the big boss wants done and takes care of it as quickly as possible). So, ESPN--the official propaganda mouthpiece of the NFL--just issued a supposedly bombshell-filled investigative report detailing how Goodell's bumbling of the alleged ball deflation matter is actually a "make up call" for Goodell's handling of the so-called "Spygate" scandal.

One thing that "Spygate" has in common with the alleged ball deflation scandal is that, in both instances, ESPN misreported the facts. During "Spygate," ESPN repeated a never verified--and since debunked--allegation that the New England Patriots illegally recorded the St. Louis Rams' walkthrough prior to Super Bowl XXXVI. Not content to misreport the facts during the immediate aftermath of "Spygate," ESPN resurrected that debunked story this year and had to issue a public--albeit buried--apology. Fast forward to this year's alleged ball deflation scandal, when ESPN--specifically Chris Mortensen--incorrectly reported that 11 of New England's 12 footballs were measured at 2 p.s.i. below the minimum permitted levels at halftime of the 2015 AFC Championship Game. ESPN's motto should be "Never Let the Facts Get in the Way of a Story That Can Garner Ratings and Revenue."

The new ESPN article contains no new facts but plenty of salacious allegations and quotes from unnamed sources. It would be shocking if it does not contain factual errors, since that is a staple of ESPN reporting, particularly concerning the Patriots. The gist of the story is that a lot of teams that have lost to the Patriots suspect deeply in their hearts that the Patriots cheat in some way. These teams cannot actually prove this but they are pretty sure it is true. Supposedly, Goodell saved the NFL from doom by burying the truth about the Patriots' cheating but promising that if anyone ever cheats again then he will throw the book at them. Thus, after Mortensen made his erroneous report about the Patriots' alleged ball deflation, Goodell jumped in quickly with his "make up call" for supposedly not dealing with "Spygate" harshly enough.

Since Goodell, via ESPN, is determined to retry "Spygate" in the court of public opinion after getting trounced in an actual court regarding the alleged ball deflation scandal, it is worth revisiting the truth about what actually did--and did not--happen during "Spygate." YourTeamCheats is an excellent guide and I will quote from some of that site's research:

The announced reason that the Patriots were punished was for filming their 2007 regular season game against the Jets from a sideline location instead of from an approved filming location (e.g. a press or media box). The actual reason was because they were told to do something by Goodell and didn't do it...

The Patriots were not punished for filming the Jets defensive signals, as that has never been forbidden by the NFL. As of 2006, however, where you film the game and signals is limited to approved locations. Coincidentally, the Jets had done nearly the exact same thing a year earlier but were not punished, even a little bit, by NFL commissioner and former Jets public relations intern Roger Goodell...

Filming your opponents' signals is--and always has been--completely legal, even today. After a league memo to all clubs in 2006, however, you can't do it from a location where the team could potentially use it during the same game.

As Coach Bill Belichick noted in 2015, 80,000 people can see his team's defensive signals: millions more if a TV camera pans by them. The signals are not meant to be hidden, just as in baseball a third-base coach's signals are not meant to be hidden. They should, however, be properly encrypted, but that is the signaling team's responsibility.

Every single NFL team films every single game they play from multiple angles. As they do this, are they supposed to locate and black out the one part of the stadium where the defensive coach is? Should it be a roaming dot if he moves? Obviously not, because the sidelines are just another part of the larger football field and game.

Spygate was:
  • 10% about where they were filming from
  • 90% about Belichick stupidly thumbing his nose at Goodell's new rule, and
  • 0% about what was being filmed
It should have been called WrongLocationgate or F*ckYouRogergate, because there was absolutely no element of spying involved.

Saturday, September 5, 2015

Judge Berman Deflates Roger Goodell's Overinflated Perception of his Power

The deflated football "scandal" is a lot of nonsense that was probably incited by people jealous of the New England Patriots' success (either people in the NFL office who used to work for rival teams and/or people who are currently affiliated with rival NFL teams) and clearly fueled by the sloppy reporting/reckless commentary of "journalists" like Bob Kravitz, Mike Wilbon and Chris Mortensen, each of whom has played fast and loose with the facts while issuing broad, sweeping pronouncements that they are not qualified to make concerning issues of sport, fairness and the law (Peter King also filed a report that was subsequently debunked, but at least he had the good sense and grace to apologize, unlike the defiant Mortensen and the bizarrely proud Kravitz, who listed his self-promoting, bombastic coverage of the story as his "drops the mic" moment on his self-evaluation of his past year's work).

Federal District Court Judge Richard Berman just inserted some common sense--and sound legal principles--into the situation with a scathing 40 page ruling that eviscerates NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell for the heavy-handed, sloppy and unfair way that Goodell and his cronies conducted the investigation and punishment of New England quarterback Tom Brady. After spending millions of dollars, the NFL could not come up with one piece of hard (or even circumstantial) evidence proving that the footballs in question were illegally deflated, let alone that Brady had anything to do with the alleged illegal deflation: the scientific analysis of the footballs in question is, at best, inconclusive, and there is no proof that Brady had anything to do with deflating the footballs even if it is true that the footballs were deliberately deflated in a manner that violates NFL rules. Nevertheless, Goodell suspended Brady for four games (under a bizarre theory equating ball deflation with illegal steroid use, a notion that an incredulous Judge Berman summarily dismissed) and media members dragged Brady's name through the mud, saying that Brady should accept the suspension (or at most bargain for a slight reduction) to just close the matter. I am sure that if someone punished Kravitz, Wilbon or Mortensen on the basis of no evidence those guys would just roll over and accept it.

Instead, Brady took the NFL to court and pounded Goodell even more soundly than Brady's Patriots defeated the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. Judge Berman expressed unconcealed disdain for the NFL's "independent" investigation (the mocking quotes are Judge Berman's) and chastised the league for refusing to grant Brady the opportunity to cross-examine his accusers and see relevant evidence. So, contrary to the incessant media bleating that we have been hearing for months, it is actually the NFL--not Brady--who obstructed the fair investigation of this matter; you can take the word of Kravitz, Wilbon and Mortensen about this point of law or you can take the word of a federal judge who comprehensively reviewed the matter and actually knows how a legal investigation is supposed to work. Goodell also repeatedly moved the goal posts on Brady, changing what Brady was being charged with doing and what basis was being used to determine Brady's punishment. Judge Berman waded through the NFL's sloppy investigation and bizarre, draconian discipline and voided Goodell's four game suspension of Brady. Keep in mind that federal courts rarely overturn an arbitrator's decision but in this case it is so obvious that Goodell neither conducted a competent investigation nor fairly served as the arbitrator of his own ruling that Judge Berman had little choice but to decide the case in Brady's favor.

The NFL has already announced that it will appeal the verdict. Maybe the league will achieve victory at the Circuit Court level, though that seems doubtful since the league's lawyers just lost in the District Court that they selected for this battle (they filed suit in New York because they felt that they would receive more sympathy in that jurisdiction than in any other one). The NFL's refusal to admit wrongdoing, accept defeat and move on brings to mind Grand Moff Tarkin's mocking dismissal of the idea that the Death Star should be evacuated right before Luke Skywalker blew it to smithereens: "Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances."

This saga could potentially drag on for years as it works its way through the federal court system but anyone who enjoys football, respects the legal process and values journalistic integrity hopes that when all is said and done we will no longer have to hear from Goodell, his "independent" investigator Ted Wells, Kravitz (whose most recent column about the Judge Berman ruling betrays a complete inability and/or unwillingness to understand what Judge Berman decided), Wilbon, Mortensen and everyone else who has added much heat but little light to the matter at hand.