In one of the most dramatic Super Bowls ever, the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Arizona Cardinals 27-23, claiming their second title in four years and sixth Super Bowl win overall, breaking the record that the franchise shared with the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. Santonio Holmes caught the game winning touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger with just :35 remaining, balletically tapping both of his feet inbounds while reaching full extension to snare the ball as it sailed just over the outreached hands of three defensive players. Just moments earlier, it seemed as though the Cardinals had the game won after Kurt Warner completed a 64 yard touchdown bomb to Larry Fitzgerald. Warner finished with 31 completions in 43 attempts for 377 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, compiling the second most yards in Super Bowl history; he now owns the top three single game yardage performances in Super Bowl history but is only 1-2 in those contests, with those two defeats coming in the final seconds by a combined seven points.
Roethlisberger completed 21 of 30 passes for 256 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He only had two yards on four rushing attempts but his ability to move around in the pocket and buy time proved to be critical throughout the game, particularly on the game-winning drive. Holmes led both teams with nine receptions for 131 yards and was awarded the Super Bowl MVP but ESPN's Steve Young insisted that Roethlisberger should have won the MVP, declaring, "The Steelers are beat--dead beat--unless Ben Roethlisberger makes about seven or eight improvisational plays at the end of that game on that critical drive and he was the MVP in my mind because of what he did right there. It was like what Dr. Seuss said--he grew three sizes right in front of my eyes...He made play after play after play and without that they are beat." Holmes made some huge plays but I have to agree with Young, who I consider to be the best football analyst on TV; if Roethlisberger does not scramble around, elude the pass rush and then make some tremendous throws, Holmes would have never even had the opportunity to make those plays. The Steelers franchise is justifiably renowned for their punishing running game and hard hitting defense, so it is somewhat ironic that three of their six Super Bowl MVPs have been wide receivers (Lynn Swann and Hines Ward are the other two).
The Cardinals got off to a very slow start and were fortunate to only be trailing 10-0 early in the second quarter; the Steelers seemed to have scored a touchdown on a short run by Roethlisberger to cap off the opening drive of the game but the Cardinals challenged the call and the officials ruled that Roethlisberger had been stopped just shy of the goal line. Pittsburgh Coach Mike Tomlin elected to kick the chip shot field goal instead of going for it on fourth and one, a conservative call but certainly an understandable choice. The Cardinals only managed one first down on their first possession before having to punt the ball and this time the Steelers drove 69 yards for a touchdown. Warner finally got Arizona on the board by engineering a nine play, 83 yard touchdown drive to cut the lead to 10-7. After Roethlisberger threw an interception deep in his own territory late in the first half, the Cardinals were poised to at least tie the game and possibly take the lead. Instead, on first and goal from the one yard line Warner was intercepted by Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison. Holmes' late TD catch will forever be remembered as the signature moment of this game but the biggest play overall was undoubtedly Harrison's 100 yard interception return for a touchdown as time expired in the first half; that was a 14 point swing in a game that was not decided until the final seconds. With all of the talk about what constitutes a Hall of Fame career, that play is a tribute to why Pittsburgh assistant coach Dick LeBeau should be inducted: LeBeau designed the zone blitz that the Steelers have perfected and it was a classic zone blitz call that fooled Warner, as Harrison faked like he was going to rush the passer before dropping back into coverage.
The Cardinals did not score in the third quarter but held the Steelers to three points, meaning that Arizona would need to make the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history to win the game. After the teams traded punts, the Cardinals went to a no huddle offense for the first time in the game and put together an eight play, 87 yard touchdown drive in just 3:57, passing on every down, including a one yard jump ball to Fitzgerald for the score. The teams again traded punts but the Cardinals were able to pin the Steelers in at the one yard line, which led to a safety after the Steelers were called for a holding penalty in the end zone, making the score 20-16 Pittsburgh.
After the free kick, Arizona took over at the 36 yard line. Warner threw an incomplete pass on first down but on second down he hit Fitzgerald on a short slant over the middle and, much like Jerry Rice used to do, Fitzgerald outran everyone to the endzone. The Steelers held Fitzgerald in check for most of the game but he finished with seven receptions for 127 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals now led 23-20 with just 2:37 remaining. That set up the heroics by Roethlisberger and Holmes, who had four receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown on the final drive.
Prior to this game there was talk about how a victory could put the final touches on Warner's Hall of Fame resume, although I think that the two regular season MVPs, one Super Bowl MVP and top five career passer rating that Warner already had make a pretty compelling case on his behalf; Warner certainly played well--though the big first half interception was costly--and he put together what could have been the game-winning drive but--as Young stated so strongly--Roethlisberger is really the player who added to his legacy. Roethlisberger is now the second youngest quarterback to win two Super Bowls and, considering that he has a young coach and a strong defense, it is entirely possible that he could match Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana's record of four Super Bowl victories.
Showing posts with label Arizona Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona Cardinals. Show all posts
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Super Bowl XLIII Preview
Super Bowl XLIII matches a Pittsburgh Steelers franchise with perhaps the NFL's top Super Bowl pedigree (six appearances, five wins, first team to win four Super Bowls) against an Arizona Cardinals franchise that has migrated from Chicago to St. Louis to Arizona but has not captured an NFL championship since 1947. If History and Tradition could put on jerseys and shoulder pads they clearly would be wearing Steelers black and gold but I keep thinking of the old cliche about "throwing out the numbers when these two teams meet"--not because the Steelers and Cardinals play each other that often but because a lot of the names and numbers that are mentioned regarding this matchup are out of date or just irrelevant.
As Rick Pitino might say, Jack Lambert is not walking through that door; Terry Bradshaw is not walking through that door. The Steelers' glorious Super Bowl history will not mean a thing once the game begins--nor will Arizona's mediocre regular season record or the embarrassing losses that the Cardinals suffered down the stretch; those setbacks feel like they happened even longer ago than when Lambert and Bradshaw were winning Super Bowls.
Super Bowl XLIII will be decided based on some intriguing player and coaching matchups. I think that the most important matchup will be Arizona's offense versus Pittsburgh's defense; one of those two units will set the tone for this game. The first inclination may be to assume that Pittsburgh's league-leading defense has the edge but Arizona poses some problems that the Steelers did not have to deal with in their playoff wins over San Diego and Baltimore. Everyone is talking about Larry Fitzgerald and rightfully so: he has already set an NFL postseason record with 419 receiving yards, gaining at least 100 yards in each of Arizona's three playoff victories. Kurt Warner was outstanding in the regular season and he has been even better in the playoffs. He and Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger each have already won a Super Bowl ring but while Roethlisberger went along for the ride when Pittsburgh won Super Bowl XL, Warner ranks first and second on the single game Super Bowl passing yardage list, throwing for 414 yards in St. Louis' 23-16 win versus Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV and compiling 365 yards in St. Louis' 20-17 loss versus New England in Super Bowl XXXVI. The most surprising statistic is that Edgerrin James leads all postseason rushers this season with 203 yards. James provides some much needed balance to Arizona's offensive attack and if he can crank out 75-80 yards on 18-20 carries then the Steelers are going to have their hands full dealing with him while also trying to not get burned by Warner and Arizona's dynamic passing game.
Pittsburgh's offense did not look very potent after Hines Ward was knocked out of the AFC Championship Game with a knee injury. No matter what anyone says, the kind of ligament damage that he suffered requires at least 4-6 weeks to heal, so he will not even be close to 100% in the Super Bowl. Could he still have a big impact? Sure; Jerry Rice had a tremendous performance in Super Bowl XXIX despite playing with a separated shoulder. However, the likelihood is that Ward will be hindered and this may enable Arizona to get away with single covering him, freeing up a defender to play against Pittsburgh's running game. In the days before last year's Super Bowl, Tom Brady was hobbling around in a walking boot while proclaiming that he would be fine during the game--but he was uncharacteristically unable to sidestep the pass rush as the perfect Patriots' season went down the tubes, so Ward can say whatever he wants but his injury may very well have cost the Steelers a potential championship.
The coaching matchup is very interesting. Arizona Coach Ken Whisenhunt and his offensive line coach Russ Grimm were assistant coaches on Bill Cowher's staff when the Steelers won Super Bowl XL. When Cowher retired they were both passed over in favor of Mike Tomlin, who has done a wonderful job as the Steelers Coach. If anyone knows not only what Roethlisberger is thinking but also how to attack Dick LeBeau's defense, it would be Whisenhunt and Grimm, two guys who worked with Roethlisberger on a daily basis while practicing against LeBeau's defense. I think that Jon Gruden's familiarity with the tendencies of his old Oakland team played a big role in Tampa Bay's triumph over the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII; Whisenhunt and Grimm may very well pull off a similar number against their old team.
This is truly a difficult game to handicap. I expect it to be close and I certainly could make a case that Pittsburgh will shut down Arizona's running game, harass Warner into some costly interceptions and win a low scoring game--but if Arizona does not turn the ball over and provide Pittsburgh with easy points then it will be difficult for the Steelers to score enough to win this game. Maybe this is just wishful thinking from an admitted Cleveland Browns fan but after considering all of the matchups, I think that Arizona will win Super Bowl XLIII, 30-24.
As Rick Pitino might say, Jack Lambert is not walking through that door; Terry Bradshaw is not walking through that door. The Steelers' glorious Super Bowl history will not mean a thing once the game begins--nor will Arizona's mediocre regular season record or the embarrassing losses that the Cardinals suffered down the stretch; those setbacks feel like they happened even longer ago than when Lambert and Bradshaw were winning Super Bowls.
Super Bowl XLIII will be decided based on some intriguing player and coaching matchups. I think that the most important matchup will be Arizona's offense versus Pittsburgh's defense; one of those two units will set the tone for this game. The first inclination may be to assume that Pittsburgh's league-leading defense has the edge but Arizona poses some problems that the Steelers did not have to deal with in their playoff wins over San Diego and Baltimore. Everyone is talking about Larry Fitzgerald and rightfully so: he has already set an NFL postseason record with 419 receiving yards, gaining at least 100 yards in each of Arizona's three playoff victories. Kurt Warner was outstanding in the regular season and he has been even better in the playoffs. He and Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger each have already won a Super Bowl ring but while Roethlisberger went along for the ride when Pittsburgh won Super Bowl XL, Warner ranks first and second on the single game Super Bowl passing yardage list, throwing for 414 yards in St. Louis' 23-16 win versus Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV and compiling 365 yards in St. Louis' 20-17 loss versus New England in Super Bowl XXXVI. The most surprising statistic is that Edgerrin James leads all postseason rushers this season with 203 yards. James provides some much needed balance to Arizona's offensive attack and if he can crank out 75-80 yards on 18-20 carries then the Steelers are going to have their hands full dealing with him while also trying to not get burned by Warner and Arizona's dynamic passing game.
Pittsburgh's offense did not look very potent after Hines Ward was knocked out of the AFC Championship Game with a knee injury. No matter what anyone says, the kind of ligament damage that he suffered requires at least 4-6 weeks to heal, so he will not even be close to 100% in the Super Bowl. Could he still have a big impact? Sure; Jerry Rice had a tremendous performance in Super Bowl XXIX despite playing with a separated shoulder. However, the likelihood is that Ward will be hindered and this may enable Arizona to get away with single covering him, freeing up a defender to play against Pittsburgh's running game. In the days before last year's Super Bowl, Tom Brady was hobbling around in a walking boot while proclaiming that he would be fine during the game--but he was uncharacteristically unable to sidestep the pass rush as the perfect Patriots' season went down the tubes, so Ward can say whatever he wants but his injury may very well have cost the Steelers a potential championship.
The coaching matchup is very interesting. Arizona Coach Ken Whisenhunt and his offensive line coach Russ Grimm were assistant coaches on Bill Cowher's staff when the Steelers won Super Bowl XL. When Cowher retired they were both passed over in favor of Mike Tomlin, who has done a wonderful job as the Steelers Coach. If anyone knows not only what Roethlisberger is thinking but also how to attack Dick LeBeau's defense, it would be Whisenhunt and Grimm, two guys who worked with Roethlisberger on a daily basis while practicing against LeBeau's defense. I think that Jon Gruden's familiarity with the tendencies of his old Oakland team played a big role in Tampa Bay's triumph over the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII; Whisenhunt and Grimm may very well pull off a similar number against their old team.
This is truly a difficult game to handicap. I expect it to be close and I certainly could make a case that Pittsburgh will shut down Arizona's running game, harass Warner into some costly interceptions and win a low scoring game--but if Arizona does not turn the ball over and provide Pittsburgh with easy points then it will be difficult for the Steelers to score enough to win this game. Maybe this is just wishful thinking from an admitted Cleveland Browns fan but after considering all of the matchups, I think that Arizona will win Super Bowl XLIII, 30-24.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Midnight Has Not Yet Struck for Cinderella Cardinals
Kurt Warner completed 21 of 28 passes for 279 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a nearly perfect 145.7 passer rating while leading his Arizona Cardinals to a 32-25 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. The Cardinals built a 24-6 halftime lead but had to come from behind after the Eagles scored 19 unanswered points. Warner responded by directing a 14 play, 72 yard fourth quarter touchdown drive that chewed up 7:52 on the clock. As announcers Joe Buck and Troy Aikman suggested, if Warner had not already assembled a Hall of Fame worthy resume then that one drive may very well have sealed the deal. The Eagles got the ball back with 2:53 left in regulation but Donovan McNabb completed just 3 of his next 8 passes--Philadelphia threw the ball on every single play--and the Eagles turned the ball over on downs. Arizona could not quite run out the clock but managed to pin the Eagles deep in their territory with just :09 left.
McNabb completed 28 of 47 passes for 375 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and a 97.4 passer rating. He has been a very good player for a number of years and it is obviously difficult to look at those numbers and then blame him for this loss--but this game is a microcosm of the way McNabb tends to perform in big games. McNabb was horrible in the first half as Arizona built what seemed to be a nearly insurmountable advantage but then, like a streak shooter in basketball, he got hot and put up points in bunches while Philadelphia's defense stymied Warner and the Cardinals. However, when push came to shove, Warner made the plays that gave his team a huge cushion and when his team trailed for the first time he promptly led the Cardinals down the field for the game-winning score. In my preview post I not only almost exactly nailed the score of the game (31-20 Arizona was my prediction), I concluded, "I expect Warner to outduel McNabb much like he did seven years ago" (when Warner's Rams beat McNabb's Eagles in the NFC Championship Game).
Is the "real" McNabb the one who helped his team make a gallant comeback? Or is the "real" McNabb the one who threw several inaccurate passes as his team quickly fell behind and then finished the game by again throwing several inaccurate passes? McNabb deserves credit for leading the Eagles to five NFC Championship Games but he has earned only one victory in that round. He seems destined to be remembered as a player who was very good but not quite good enough to carry a team to a championship.
As for Warner, he has been the lead actor in a similar drama before; a decade ago he helped to transform the St. Louis Rams overnight from a sad sack franchise into Super Bowl champions. Now he has guided the Cardinals--who have not won a championship in six decades--to the franchise's first ever Super Bowl appearance. Warner improved to 3-0 in NFC Championship Game play and he owns one of the top five career playoff passer ratings in NFL history.
The Cardinals are just the second team from a non-strike year to advance to the Super Bowl despite winning fewer than 10 regular season games. They looked dead in the water after losing four games in a five game stretch late in the season--giving up 37, 48, 35 and 47 points in those defeats--but they have scored at least 30 points in each of their three playoff games while holding their opponents to 24 points or less.
In the Super Bowl, Arizona's flashy, pass-oriented offense will provide a stark contrast with Pittsburgh's physical, pounding style but before too much is made of those differences it is worth remembering that during the playoffs the Cardinals have shown that they can play good, hard physical defense while the Steelers have demonstrated big play capability with their passing game. Other subplots include the duel between graybeard Warner and young gun Ben Roethlisberger--each of whom has already led a team to a Super Bowl title--and the coaching matchup between Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt, a former Steelers assistant coach who the Steelers passed over in favor of hiring Tomlin.
McNabb completed 28 of 47 passes for 375 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and a 97.4 passer rating. He has been a very good player for a number of years and it is obviously difficult to look at those numbers and then blame him for this loss--but this game is a microcosm of the way McNabb tends to perform in big games. McNabb was horrible in the first half as Arizona built what seemed to be a nearly insurmountable advantage but then, like a streak shooter in basketball, he got hot and put up points in bunches while Philadelphia's defense stymied Warner and the Cardinals. However, when push came to shove, Warner made the plays that gave his team a huge cushion and when his team trailed for the first time he promptly led the Cardinals down the field for the game-winning score. In my preview post I not only almost exactly nailed the score of the game (31-20 Arizona was my prediction), I concluded, "I expect Warner to outduel McNabb much like he did seven years ago" (when Warner's Rams beat McNabb's Eagles in the NFC Championship Game).
Is the "real" McNabb the one who helped his team make a gallant comeback? Or is the "real" McNabb the one who threw several inaccurate passes as his team quickly fell behind and then finished the game by again throwing several inaccurate passes? McNabb deserves credit for leading the Eagles to five NFC Championship Games but he has earned only one victory in that round. He seems destined to be remembered as a player who was very good but not quite good enough to carry a team to a championship.
As for Warner, he has been the lead actor in a similar drama before; a decade ago he helped to transform the St. Louis Rams overnight from a sad sack franchise into Super Bowl champions. Now he has guided the Cardinals--who have not won a championship in six decades--to the franchise's first ever Super Bowl appearance. Warner improved to 3-0 in NFC Championship Game play and he owns one of the top five career playoff passer ratings in NFL history.
The Cardinals are just the second team from a non-strike year to advance to the Super Bowl despite winning fewer than 10 regular season games. They looked dead in the water after losing four games in a five game stretch late in the season--giving up 37, 48, 35 and 47 points in those defeats--but they have scored at least 30 points in each of their three playoff games while holding their opponents to 24 points or less.
In the Super Bowl, Arizona's flashy, pass-oriented offense will provide a stark contrast with Pittsburgh's physical, pounding style but before too much is made of those differences it is worth remembering that during the playoffs the Cardinals have shown that they can play good, hard physical defense while the Steelers have demonstrated big play capability with their passing game. Other subplots include the duel between graybeard Warner and young gun Ben Roethlisberger--each of whom has already led a team to a Super Bowl title--and the coaching matchup between Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt, a former Steelers assistant coach who the Steelers passed over in favor of hiring Tomlin.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
AFC and NFC Championship Game Previews
Last year, I went 2-2 during the Divisional Playoff round, correctly picking New England and Green Bay but wrongly choosing a pair of 13-3 teams, the Cowboys and the Colts. This year, the top seeds in both conferences--the 13-3 Tennessee Titans and the 12-4 defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants--went belly up at home in the Divisional Playoff round. Those games, plus Arizona's stunning 33-13 road win over 12-4 Carolina (the worst home loss by a second seeded team since the NFL expanded the playoff format in 1990), meant that I went 1-3 during the Divisional Playoff round, with my only correct choice being the reliable Pittsburgh Steelers, 35-24 victors over the San Diego Chargers. The Steelers are now 11-1 in home games in the Divisional Playoffs since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger (they set a record of dubious distinction by losing four out of five AFC Championship Games at home from 1994-2004 but more about that shortly).
My playoff predicting record is a dismal 3-5 so far this season, so I need to be perfect the rest of the way just to match the 6-5 mark that I posted last season. All I can say in my defense is that this year's NFL playoffs have been more wide open and unpredictable than any postseason in recent years--or maybe ever. Home field advantage, playoff seeding, being a hot team or being a cold team--none of these factors seemed to matter at all.
Last week's games featured four rematches of 2008 regular season games and this week's Championship Games are also rematches. Here are my predictions:
NFC Championship Game
The 11-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 11-7 NFC South West Champion Arizona Cardinals.
I've already picked against the Cardinals twice, while I correctly picked the Eagles to beat the Vikings but predicted that their playoff run would end versus the Giants. In other words, I did not expect either team to make it this far. Arizona is the first 9-7 team to host a conference championship game. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner owns a 7-2 career playoff record, including a 1-1 Super Bowl mark and a 29-24 victory over Donovan McNabb and the Eagles in the 2002 NFC Championship Game when Warner played for the Rams. Warner completed 22 of 33 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and a 94.5 passer rating in that game, while McNabb--who has a 9-5 career playoff record, including 0-1 in the Super Bowl--completed 18 of 30 passes for 171 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 73.1 passer rating. Although McNabb has a pedestrian 79.2 career playoff passer rating (Warner's career playoff passer rating is 92.6), McNabb has started in nine playoff victories, trailing only Joe Montana (15), Terry Bradshaw (14), Tom Brady (14), John Elway (14), Brett Favre (12), Roger Staubach (12) and Troy Aikman (11) on the career list. That group is top heavy with modern players due to the multiple expansions of the postseason format in the past few decades and it is worth mentioning that each of the quarterbacks ahead of McNabb won at least one Super Bowl title and made multiple Super Bowl appearances.
The Eagles smashed the Cardinals 48-20 in Philadelphia on Thanksgiving but don't count on the Cardinals playing like they are in a tryptophan induced stupor this time. After sleepwalking through the latter portion of the regular season, the Cardinals have discovered a running game and an opportunistic defense in the playoffs. Arizona defensive end Antonio Smith said, "We had to start it over. Push the reset button and go back to the type of football we were playing at the beginning of the season. Somewhere after we clinched (a playoff spot), we got a little too into ourselves and relaxed on some of the things we focused on before. That's the big difference. This defense has always been a good defense. If anybody watches film and watches us, they will see that." Or you could just ask Jake Delhomme, whose excellent season and fine playoff resume went up in smoke as he threw five interceptions and fumbled once in Carolina's loss to the Cardinals last week.
I would have never imagined that the Cardinals could make it to the NFC Championship Game, let alone host it, but now that they are one home win away from making the franchise's first trip to the Super Bowl I expect Warner to outduel McNabb much like he did seven years ago. Arizona will win, 31-20.
AFC Championship Game
The 13-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 13-4 AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers.
I expected the Steelers to make it to the AFC Championship but thought that they would be visiting Tennessee instead of hosting the Ravens. Baltimore's 13-10 win at Tennessee gave new meaning to the term "head-knocking"; I don't think I've ever seen so many helmets fly off of players' heads in one game. That was a bruising, brutal and ugly game that surely took a lot out of the Ravens mentally and physically. Meanwhile, San Diego hung with Pittsburgh for a half but the Steelers limited the Chargers to one offensive play--a Philip Rivers interception--in the entire third quarter as they cruised to a 35-24 victory.
Both the Steelers and the Ravens play bonecrushing defense and want to establish the running game on offense. The Steelers swept the regular season series between these division rivals, but only won those two games by a combined seven points--and that included an overtime period.
In this matchup of mirror image teams, the only real reason to go against Pittsburgh is that the Steelers are just 1-4 at home in the AFC Championship since 1994. However, two of those losses came at the hands of the New England Patriots--winners of three Super Bowls in a four year span--and the other two losses happened more than a decade ago with a different coaching staff and different players.
Baltimore's defense will probably keep the game close for a half but Pittsburgh will win, 24-9.
My playoff predicting record is a dismal 3-5 so far this season, so I need to be perfect the rest of the way just to match the 6-5 mark that I posted last season. All I can say in my defense is that this year's NFL playoffs have been more wide open and unpredictable than any postseason in recent years--or maybe ever. Home field advantage, playoff seeding, being a hot team or being a cold team--none of these factors seemed to matter at all.
Last week's games featured four rematches of 2008 regular season games and this week's Championship Games are also rematches. Here are my predictions:
NFC Championship Game
The 11-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 11-7 NFC South West Champion Arizona Cardinals.
I've already picked against the Cardinals twice, while I correctly picked the Eagles to beat the Vikings but predicted that their playoff run would end versus the Giants. In other words, I did not expect either team to make it this far. Arizona is the first 9-7 team to host a conference championship game. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner owns a 7-2 career playoff record, including a 1-1 Super Bowl mark and a 29-24 victory over Donovan McNabb and the Eagles in the 2002 NFC Championship Game when Warner played for the Rams. Warner completed 22 of 33 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and a 94.5 passer rating in that game, while McNabb--who has a 9-5 career playoff record, including 0-1 in the Super Bowl--completed 18 of 30 passes for 171 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 73.1 passer rating. Although McNabb has a pedestrian 79.2 career playoff passer rating (Warner's career playoff passer rating is 92.6), McNabb has started in nine playoff victories, trailing only Joe Montana (15), Terry Bradshaw (14), Tom Brady (14), John Elway (14), Brett Favre (12), Roger Staubach (12) and Troy Aikman (11) on the career list. That group is top heavy with modern players due to the multiple expansions of the postseason format in the past few decades and it is worth mentioning that each of the quarterbacks ahead of McNabb won at least one Super Bowl title and made multiple Super Bowl appearances.
The Eagles smashed the Cardinals 48-20 in Philadelphia on Thanksgiving but don't count on the Cardinals playing like they are in a tryptophan induced stupor this time. After sleepwalking through the latter portion of the regular season, the Cardinals have discovered a running game and an opportunistic defense in the playoffs. Arizona defensive end Antonio Smith said, "We had to start it over. Push the reset button and go back to the type of football we were playing at the beginning of the season. Somewhere after we clinched (a playoff spot), we got a little too into ourselves and relaxed on some of the things we focused on before. That's the big difference. This defense has always been a good defense. If anybody watches film and watches us, they will see that." Or you could just ask Jake Delhomme, whose excellent season and fine playoff resume went up in smoke as he threw five interceptions and fumbled once in Carolina's loss to the Cardinals last week.
I would have never imagined that the Cardinals could make it to the NFC Championship Game, let alone host it, but now that they are one home win away from making the franchise's first trip to the Super Bowl I expect Warner to outduel McNabb much like he did seven years ago. Arizona will win, 31-20.
AFC Championship Game
The 13-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 13-4 AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers.
I expected the Steelers to make it to the AFC Championship but thought that they would be visiting Tennessee instead of hosting the Ravens. Baltimore's 13-10 win at Tennessee gave new meaning to the term "head-knocking"; I don't think I've ever seen so many helmets fly off of players' heads in one game. That was a bruising, brutal and ugly game that surely took a lot out of the Ravens mentally and physically. Meanwhile, San Diego hung with Pittsburgh for a half but the Steelers limited the Chargers to one offensive play--a Philip Rivers interception--in the entire third quarter as they cruised to a 35-24 victory.
Both the Steelers and the Ravens play bonecrushing defense and want to establish the running game on offense. The Steelers swept the regular season series between these division rivals, but only won those two games by a combined seven points--and that included an overtime period.
In this matchup of mirror image teams, the only real reason to go against Pittsburgh is that the Steelers are just 1-4 at home in the AFC Championship since 1994. However, two of those losses came at the hands of the New England Patriots--winners of three Super Bowls in a four year span--and the other two losses happened more than a decade ago with a different coaching staff and different players.
Baltimore's defense will probably keep the game close for a half but Pittsburgh will win, 24-9.
Friday, January 9, 2009
NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions
This year's Wild Card Weekend was a bit odd, as the road teams were favored in all four contests. After looking carefully at each matchup, I decided that there were good reasons that the home teams were underdogs but when the dust cleared two of those home teams won, so I only correctly picked the outcome of two of the four Wild Card Weekend games. However, the only result that really surprised me was San Diego beating Indianapolis; even though the Chargers have played the Colts very tough in recent years, the Chargers were a banged up 8-8 team while the Colts were the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch and featured the league MVP, Peyton Manning. I had Atlanta squeaking by Arizona 27-24 but acknowledged that the Cardinals had a "puncher's chance if Warner puts a lot of points on the board and avoids committing costly turnovers" and that was exactly what happened in a 30-24 Cardinals win. I knew that Baltimore and Philadelphia would prove to be superior to Miami and Minnesota respectively.
Perhaps the most intriguing thing about the four Divisional Playoff games is that they are all rematches of 2008 regular season contests. Here are my predictions:
Saturday's games:
The 12-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 13-3 AFC South Champion Tennessee Titans.
On paper, Tennessee and Baltimore are about as evenly matched as possible. The Titans posted the best regular season record in the NFL this season but these teams tied for the best point differential (8.8 ppg). The Titans won the regular season matchup 13-10 at Baltimore but the Ravens have won four of their previous seven games versus Tennessee. Both teams have bruising running attacks and fierce defenses.
The Titans are a bit banged up on both the offensive and defensive lines; Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are expected to play but center Kevin Mawae's status is less certain and that could obviously have a major impact on Tennessee in both the running game and the passing game.
The Ravens are coming off of a convincing win against a hot Dolphins team but they have to play on the road against a well rested division champion. The key factor will be that Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins must avoid throwing costly interceptions (hint: be aware of where Ed Reed is and do not throw the football anywhere near him).
Tennessee will win, 24-13.
The 10-7 NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals visit the 12-4 NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers.
Arizona looked terrible in the last few weeks of the regular season but surprised a lot of people by beating Atlanta in the Wild Card game. Still, the Cardinals had a negative point differential during the season, went 0-5 in the Eastern time zone and have lost five of their last seven games to Carolina, including a 27-23 road loss this season. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns in that game but the Panthers did not lose at home this season and are not likely to do so versus Arizona.
Carolina will win, 31-17.
Sunday's games:
The 10-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 12-4 NFC East Champion New York Giants.
These division rivals split their 2008 games, with the Giants winning 36-31 at Philadelphia before losing 20-14 at home. The Eagles have won 10 of the previous 17 meetings overall and the Giants have not been quite the same since losing the services of troubled wide receiver Plaxico Burress. Despite New York's superior record, the two teams had virtually identical point differentials. The winner will be the team that is more physical, does a better job of establishing a running game and is able to avoid costly mistakes. New York is the defending Super Bowl champion, a team that made their title run by putting together a record setting road winning streak. They are well rested and I don't think that they will lose to a talented but inconsistent Philadelphia squad.
New York will win, 24-10
The 9-8 Wild Card San Diego Chargers visit the 12-4 AFC North Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10 this season but that score is very deceptive; the referees erroneously nullified a late Pittsburgh TD, the Steelers outgained San Diego 410 yards to 213 and Ben Roethlisberger completely outplayed Philip Rivers, posting a 96.4 passer rating compared to a season-low 44.4 rating for Rivers. The fact that San Diego has beaten Pittsburgh in both of their playoff matchups is meaningless trivia, because those games took place in 1982 and 1994. The only negative for Pittsburgh going into this game is that Roethlisberger suffered a concussion in the season finale versus Cleveland. Assuming that he is not bothered by any aftereffects from that injury, Pittsburgh should dominate this game.
Pittsburgh will win, 27-7
Perhaps the most intriguing thing about the four Divisional Playoff games is that they are all rematches of 2008 regular season contests. Here are my predictions:
Saturday's games:
The 12-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 13-3 AFC South Champion Tennessee Titans.
On paper, Tennessee and Baltimore are about as evenly matched as possible. The Titans posted the best regular season record in the NFL this season but these teams tied for the best point differential (8.8 ppg). The Titans won the regular season matchup 13-10 at Baltimore but the Ravens have won four of their previous seven games versus Tennessee. Both teams have bruising running attacks and fierce defenses.
The Titans are a bit banged up on both the offensive and defensive lines; Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are expected to play but center Kevin Mawae's status is less certain and that could obviously have a major impact on Tennessee in both the running game and the passing game.
The Ravens are coming off of a convincing win against a hot Dolphins team but they have to play on the road against a well rested division champion. The key factor will be that Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins must avoid throwing costly interceptions (hint: be aware of where Ed Reed is and do not throw the football anywhere near him).
Tennessee will win, 24-13.
The 10-7 NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals visit the 12-4 NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers.
Arizona looked terrible in the last few weeks of the regular season but surprised a lot of people by beating Atlanta in the Wild Card game. Still, the Cardinals had a negative point differential during the season, went 0-5 in the Eastern time zone and have lost five of their last seven games to Carolina, including a 27-23 road loss this season. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns in that game but the Panthers did not lose at home this season and are not likely to do so versus Arizona.
Carolina will win, 31-17.
Sunday's games:
The 10-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 12-4 NFC East Champion New York Giants.
These division rivals split their 2008 games, with the Giants winning 36-31 at Philadelphia before losing 20-14 at home. The Eagles have won 10 of the previous 17 meetings overall and the Giants have not been quite the same since losing the services of troubled wide receiver Plaxico Burress. Despite New York's superior record, the two teams had virtually identical point differentials. The winner will be the team that is more physical, does a better job of establishing a running game and is able to avoid costly mistakes. New York is the defending Super Bowl champion, a team that made their title run by putting together a record setting road winning streak. They are well rested and I don't think that they will lose to a talented but inconsistent Philadelphia squad.
New York will win, 24-10
The 9-8 Wild Card San Diego Chargers visit the 12-4 AFC North Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10 this season but that score is very deceptive; the referees erroneously nullified a late Pittsburgh TD, the Steelers outgained San Diego 410 yards to 213 and Ben Roethlisberger completely outplayed Philip Rivers, posting a 96.4 passer rating compared to a season-low 44.4 rating for Rivers. The fact that San Diego has beaten Pittsburgh in both of their playoff matchups is meaningless trivia, because those games took place in 1982 and 1994. The only negative for Pittsburgh going into this game is that Roethlisberger suffered a concussion in the season finale versus Cleveland. Assuming that he is not bothered by any aftereffects from that injury, Pittsburgh should dominate this game.
Pittsburgh will win, 27-7
Monday, November 10, 2008
Monday Night Football Quick Hits: Kurt Warner for MVP Edition
Kurt Warner went 32-42 for 328 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions as the Arizona Cardinals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 29-24. The 49ers jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead after Allen Rossum returned the opening kickoff 104 yards for a touchdown; the Cardinals trailed the rest of the way until Warner connected on a four yard TD pass to Anquan Boldin with just 4:16 remaining in the game for what proved to be the decisive score. Both teams made numerous errors in the fourth quarter and the outcome was not determined until the Cardinals stopped Michael Robinson on third and goal from the two yard line as time ran out. As usual, ESPN's Steve Young summarized things best: "For a while I thought whoever screwed up last would lose the football game...It was exciting but rather inept football."
This game contained many interesting storylines/subplots above and beyond being a matchup of division rivals:
1) A young Arizona team emerging as a viable playoff contender under the leadership of graybeard--literally, before he wisely shaved off his facial hair--quarterback Kurt Warner.
2) In contrast to the quarterback position--where Warner won the job from the presumed heir apparent Matt Leinart--at running back the Cardinals have turned to youngster Tim Hightower, apparently signaling the beginning of the end of the career of Edgerrin James.
3) Mike Singletary's vocal attempts to whip his 49ers into being some semblance of a competitive team.
The 6-3 Cardinals now enjoy a four game lead in the anemic NFC West, with the 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams tied for second (or last, depending on how you look at it) at 2-7. The Cardinals have improved on both sides of the ball but Warner is clearly leading the way by playing at an MVP caliber level; in fact, as the Monday Night Countdown crew discussed, if Warner had not already done enough to merit consideration as a Hall of Famer he is putting the finishing touches on his Canton resume with his performance this season. Warner ranks first in the NFL with a 106.4 passer rating, which would be the 12th best single season rating of all-time if he can maintain it (his 109.2 rating in 1999 is tied for the seventh best all-time). Warner ranks second behind only Steve Young in career passer rating and he has now thrown for at least 300 yards in 45.1% of his career games (46 out of 102), by far the highest such percentage (with a minimum of 100 games) in NFL history (Hall of Famer Dan Fouts is a distant second at 28%). Warner already owns two regular season MVPs (1999, 2001), one Super Bowl ring (1999) and one Super Bowl MVP (1999) in two Super Bowl appearances. Tom Jackson rightly noted that there are already quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame who did not achieve all of those things. Warner ranks first all-time in passing yards per game, second in completion percentage and fifth in yards per attempt, a statistic that many people consider to be the most important measure of a quarterback's effectiveness. Frankly, I think that Warner has already done enough to be a Hall of Famer but this season he seems intent on removing any possible doubt from the equation.
Only a few months ago, Warner was considering retirement but when the Cardinals told him that he would be given a legitimate shot to win the starting job from Matt Leinart he jumped at the opportunity and ran with it. Warner told Young after the game that the NFL is not always fair, that a lot of political things go into decisions about who plays and that it frustrated him to sit on the bench last year when he knew that he was good enough to start. The 37 year old Warner is proving that age is just a number, not something that should define or limit a person's opportunities, and it is wonderful and fun to watch him be a full time quarterback again. As Ron Jaworski said during the game, the most important aspect of being a good quarterback is accuracy and Warner is one of the most accurate passers ever.
It is ironic that at the same time that Warner's star is ascending again four-time Pro Bowl running back Edgerrin James--the leading active rusher and the 13th leading rusher of all-time--has been replaced as Arizona's starter by rookie Tim Hightower. When running backs lose it they often lose it quickly and they rarely get it back. James averaged at least 4.1 yards per attempt in six of his first seven seasons but in 2006 and 2007 he averaged 3.4 and 3.8 yards per attempt respectively with a long gain of just 27 yards; this season he is averaging 3.5 yards per attempt with a long gain of 16 yards. Meanwhile, Hightower had 109 yards on 22 carries in his first start, a 34-13 win at St. Louis last week, but he only rushed for 25 yards on 11 carries versus San Francisco. Warner said that he knows exactly how James feels but that James is continuing to be a great teammate and a great presence in the locker room.
During the game, Tony Kornheiser mentioned that Singletary views the locker room as almost a sacred place, takes a "paternal" interest in his players and views the team as a family unit. Kornheiser asked if players will buy into Singletary's approach in an era of high salaries and free agency. Anyone who understands human psychology and what it takes to be a good head coach realizes that this is a naive question: no matter what is at stake financially, most people want--no, crave--to be part of something bigger than themselves, something that they find to be intensely meaningful. Good players will embrace the changes that Singletary is making in the culture surrounding the 49ers and the bad players who don't will be promptly shipped out. Singletary and the 49ers' management have to use the second half of this season to find out which players they can build around and which players are not skilled enough and/or not focused enough to be part of a winning program.
As the 49ers tried to come from behind in the waning moments, Kornheiser attempted to make the outcome of this game into some kind of referendum on Singletary's chances to be the long term answer at head coach--but that is preposterous. This is only Singletary's second game as head coach and it would be asinine to make such a huge, franchise transforming decision on the basis of one game, win or lose. Singletary should be judged on the body of his work throughout the remainder of the season and he should have the opportunity to discuss with management his vision of how to turn the team around.
Singletary's passion and dedication are evident and admirable but by the same token he has to be held accountable to do his job effectively just as much as he rightly holds the players accountable to do their jobs. Young mentioned that Singletary must improve at game management, particularly clock management. Young also noted that the 49ers put inexperienced quarterback Shaun Hill in some precarious situations on several occasions with questionable play calling--and the final play call, running Michael Robinson up the middle with the game on the line, simply made no sense. After the game, Singletary said that offensive coordinator Mike Martz thought that there would be a "cavity" through which Robinson could run but the only "cavity" concerning that play is the hole in the head of anyone who thought (1) this would work and (2) it was the best possible call in that situation. Why not use Pro Bowl running back Frank Gore? Why not roll Hill out with a pass/run option? Whether or not Martz made the Robinson call, ultimately it is Singletary's responsibility to know his personnel and to veto calls that make no sense. I suspect that if Singletary is retained as the head coach he probably will want to hire a different offensive coordinator, one whose mindset more closely matches his own. That is not to say that Martz is a bad coach but Singletary seems to have a different philosophy than Martz does and for a team to be successful the coaching staff needs to have the same ideas about how to play the game.
Singletary certainly seems to understand both what he needs to do and the standard to which the players must hold themselves accountable: he candidly admitted that the 49ers' late game clock management was poor and when someone asked him if he was "happy" that the players displayed energy and intensity he scofffingly replied that happy is not the right word--he expects his players to have energy and be intense and he believes he should be sent home if it ever gets to the point that they don't display those qualities. Singletary is a rookie head coach who will make some mistakes but he is also a breath of fresh air because of his passion and candor, so I hope that he will be provided a full and fair opportunity to build a team in his image.
Here are some notes/comments about Sunday's action:
*The Browns lost to the Broncos 34-30 on Thursday, blowing a two touchdown second half lead at home for the second consecutive game. Cleveland's defense seemed to have improved early in the season but now it is an unmitigated disaster area, giving up 564 yards versus Denver; that is the third worst total in the 803 game NFL history of the franchise, dating back to 1950 when the Browns were one of three All-America Football Conference (AAFC) teams that joined the more established league. The Browns have surrendered 993 yards in the past two games, the most that the team has ever allowed in consecutive contests--and considering how bad the Browns were right after they returned in 1999 that is really saying something.
Running back Jamal Lewis, who played for Baltimore's Super Bowl championship team in 2000, is disgusted by the attitude of some of his Cleveland teammates: "This is the NFL, you can't call it quits until the game is over. But it looks to me like some people called it quits before that. Denver was down, but they didn't call it quits. They kept their heads up and they finished. We didn't do that two weeks in a row--at home. Some people need to check their egos at the door and find some heart to come out here and play hard. This is a man's game. The way we went out there and played two weeks in a row, finishing the same kind of way, it's not there. I think there are some men around here that need to check their selves, straight up. That's it. Honestly, I've never seen anything like it ever in my life as long as I've been playing. I'm not cut from this kind of cloth. I play physical football, and I come out here and give it my all. I give it my all all week. To come out and be up by whatever--this is the NFL. You can't call it quits until the game is over."
Although Lewis' terminology may not have been quite correct--it would be more precise to say that the Browns lost focus, rather than to say that a team that was leading "quit"--but his overall message is right on point and a most telling indictment of a team that had several Pro Bowlers last season but lacks mental toughness and discipline. I'd go into battle with Lewis, Josh Cribbs, Joe Thomas and a few others but there are too many Cleveland players who clearly do not prepare properly during the week or focus on the task at hand during games.
The headline story for the Browns prior to the Denver game was about Brady Quinn replacing Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback. Quinn played well (23-35, 239 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions) but from a team standpoint there was no difference: with Anderson at quarterback the previous week versus Baltimore, the Browns built a big lead and lost; with Quinn at the controls the Browns did exactly the same thing. In other words, quarterback is not the central problem for the Browns. I think that the Browns can win with either quarterback but it has also become sadly apparent that they can lose with either quarterback. One obvious difference with Quinn at the helm is that the Browns looked a bit crisper, committing fewer false start penalties and seeming to be more organized. The NFL Network's Deion Sanders said that the Browns used a simplified game plan that enabled Quinn to be effective and that it also helped Quinn to play against Denver's weak defense, so the jury is still out until Quinn plays well against some tougher teams. Marshall Faulk wondered aloud why the Browns did not come up with a similar game plan to help Anderson shine--and that is a very good question, because Anderson definitely has the skills to be a very good quarterback. Barring injury, Quinn will almost certainly be the starter the rest of the way and Anderson will most likely be traded in the offseason--but I have the feeling that if Anderson lands on the right team, which is to say a team with a competent coaching staff, he will become a very productive quarterback. I have visions of him coming back to Cleveland wearing a different uniform and throwing for 350 yards and four touchdowns as his new team stomps the Browns.
The Browns' organization is flawed from the top down and until that is straightened out the team will not be successful. Bill Walsh used to always say that it should only take a well run team three years to become competitive. The Browns returned to the NFL in 1999 and have made the playoffs one time. During that period they have never been competitive for a sustained stretch--there was a one and done 9-7 playoff year in 2002 followed by four losing seasons and then a 10-6 campaign last year followed by this season's 3-6 showing. That is pathetic and inexcusable decade and reflects poorly on the ownership: the Lerner family has yet to hire the proper football decision makers capable of building a winning team.
*During Sunday evening's SportsCenter, John Saunders said that after Tom Brady suffered his season-ending injury in week one, "Most people thought that New England's season went down with him," adding that "nobody" thought that Matt Cassel--who Cris Carter keeps referring to as a "high school quarterback"--could competently take his place. Saunders needs to spend more time at BEST, because I have repeatedly said that with Cassel at the helm the Patriots can still be a dangerous playoff team, a point that I emphasized in my recap of New England's 41-7 victory over Denver and in last week's Monday Night Football Quick Hits, when I noted the similarities between Cassel's production so far and Brady's statistics right after he took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001:
Cassel cannot match the record breaking standard that Brady set last year but it is useful to remember that in Brady's first year as a starter--when, like Cassel, he was an inexperienced player stepping in for an injured veteran--Brady was not Brady either or at least he was not the Brady of recent vintage: the Patriots closed the 2001 season with six straight victories en route to winning the Super Bowl but in those six games Brady had just six touchdowns and five interceptions, compiling a passer rating below 64 in three of those contests (his passer rating overall that season was 86.5); during the three game playoff run Brady had one touchdown pass and one interception, accumulating passer ratings of 86.2, 84.3 and then 70.4 in the Super Bowl. I'm not saying that the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl this year--but given Bill Belichick's track record it would be foolish to totally dismiss their chances.
Some people speculate about what Belichick's career won-loss record would have been like without Tom Brady but it is just as valid to ask what Brady's career would have been like without Belichick; Belichick did an outstanding job of coaching Brady and bringing him along from being a backup quarterback to a solid starter to a Pro Bowler to an MVP. It is obviously far too soon to say what kind of player Cassel will ultimately become but any objective person can clearly see that Belichick and his staff have done an excellent job of coaching Cassel.
The Patriots will face the New York Jets on Thursday night with first place in the AFC East on the line. The Jets demolished St. Louis 47-3 on Sunday but their defense--and St. Louis miscues--set up a lot of those scores. Brett Favre threw for just 167 yards and one touchdown, though he did complete an outstanding 14 of his 19 attempts. Favre has put up decent statistics in his first year in New York but his replacement in Green Bay--Aaron Rodgers--and the quarterback that the Jets sent to Miami--Chad Pennington--are both having better seasons than Favre is. Pennington has rallied the 1-15 Dolphins to a 5-4 record, placing them just one game behind the Patriots and the Jets. While it is true that Green Bay has slid from 13-3 last year to 4-5 this season, that has much more to do with their leaky defense than with the quarterback change: Favre had a 95.7 passer rating last season, while Rodgers has a 93.3 passer rating this season. Favre's rating as a Jet this year is 89.8 and he leads the NFL in interceptions with 12, while Rodgers only has five interceptions.
Look for Favre to toss three interceptions versus New England as the Patriots beat the Jets to take over clear first place in the AFC East. The Jets have a better record than I expected them to have at this point but 6-3 could become 6-6 very quickly: after traveling to New England the Jets visit Tennessee and then face a Denver team that is fighting to stay on top in the AFC West.
This game contained many interesting storylines/subplots above and beyond being a matchup of division rivals:
1) A young Arizona team emerging as a viable playoff contender under the leadership of graybeard--literally, before he wisely shaved off his facial hair--quarterback Kurt Warner.
2) In contrast to the quarterback position--where Warner won the job from the presumed heir apparent Matt Leinart--at running back the Cardinals have turned to youngster Tim Hightower, apparently signaling the beginning of the end of the career of Edgerrin James.
3) Mike Singletary's vocal attempts to whip his 49ers into being some semblance of a competitive team.
The 6-3 Cardinals now enjoy a four game lead in the anemic NFC West, with the 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams tied for second (or last, depending on how you look at it) at 2-7. The Cardinals have improved on both sides of the ball but Warner is clearly leading the way by playing at an MVP caliber level; in fact, as the Monday Night Countdown crew discussed, if Warner had not already done enough to merit consideration as a Hall of Famer he is putting the finishing touches on his Canton resume with his performance this season. Warner ranks first in the NFL with a 106.4 passer rating, which would be the 12th best single season rating of all-time if he can maintain it (his 109.2 rating in 1999 is tied for the seventh best all-time). Warner ranks second behind only Steve Young in career passer rating and he has now thrown for at least 300 yards in 45.1% of his career games (46 out of 102), by far the highest such percentage (with a minimum of 100 games) in NFL history (Hall of Famer Dan Fouts is a distant second at 28%). Warner already owns two regular season MVPs (1999, 2001), one Super Bowl ring (1999) and one Super Bowl MVP (1999) in two Super Bowl appearances. Tom Jackson rightly noted that there are already quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame who did not achieve all of those things. Warner ranks first all-time in passing yards per game, second in completion percentage and fifth in yards per attempt, a statistic that many people consider to be the most important measure of a quarterback's effectiveness. Frankly, I think that Warner has already done enough to be a Hall of Famer but this season he seems intent on removing any possible doubt from the equation.
Only a few months ago, Warner was considering retirement but when the Cardinals told him that he would be given a legitimate shot to win the starting job from Matt Leinart he jumped at the opportunity and ran with it. Warner told Young after the game that the NFL is not always fair, that a lot of political things go into decisions about who plays and that it frustrated him to sit on the bench last year when he knew that he was good enough to start. The 37 year old Warner is proving that age is just a number, not something that should define or limit a person's opportunities, and it is wonderful and fun to watch him be a full time quarterback again. As Ron Jaworski said during the game, the most important aspect of being a good quarterback is accuracy and Warner is one of the most accurate passers ever.
It is ironic that at the same time that Warner's star is ascending again four-time Pro Bowl running back Edgerrin James--the leading active rusher and the 13th leading rusher of all-time--has been replaced as Arizona's starter by rookie Tim Hightower. When running backs lose it they often lose it quickly and they rarely get it back. James averaged at least 4.1 yards per attempt in six of his first seven seasons but in 2006 and 2007 he averaged 3.4 and 3.8 yards per attempt respectively with a long gain of just 27 yards; this season he is averaging 3.5 yards per attempt with a long gain of 16 yards. Meanwhile, Hightower had 109 yards on 22 carries in his first start, a 34-13 win at St. Louis last week, but he only rushed for 25 yards on 11 carries versus San Francisco. Warner said that he knows exactly how James feels but that James is continuing to be a great teammate and a great presence in the locker room.
During the game, Tony Kornheiser mentioned that Singletary views the locker room as almost a sacred place, takes a "paternal" interest in his players and views the team as a family unit. Kornheiser asked if players will buy into Singletary's approach in an era of high salaries and free agency. Anyone who understands human psychology and what it takes to be a good head coach realizes that this is a naive question: no matter what is at stake financially, most people want--no, crave--to be part of something bigger than themselves, something that they find to be intensely meaningful. Good players will embrace the changes that Singletary is making in the culture surrounding the 49ers and the bad players who don't will be promptly shipped out. Singletary and the 49ers' management have to use the second half of this season to find out which players they can build around and which players are not skilled enough and/or not focused enough to be part of a winning program.
As the 49ers tried to come from behind in the waning moments, Kornheiser attempted to make the outcome of this game into some kind of referendum on Singletary's chances to be the long term answer at head coach--but that is preposterous. This is only Singletary's second game as head coach and it would be asinine to make such a huge, franchise transforming decision on the basis of one game, win or lose. Singletary should be judged on the body of his work throughout the remainder of the season and he should have the opportunity to discuss with management his vision of how to turn the team around.
Singletary's passion and dedication are evident and admirable but by the same token he has to be held accountable to do his job effectively just as much as he rightly holds the players accountable to do their jobs. Young mentioned that Singletary must improve at game management, particularly clock management. Young also noted that the 49ers put inexperienced quarterback Shaun Hill in some precarious situations on several occasions with questionable play calling--and the final play call, running Michael Robinson up the middle with the game on the line, simply made no sense. After the game, Singletary said that offensive coordinator Mike Martz thought that there would be a "cavity" through which Robinson could run but the only "cavity" concerning that play is the hole in the head of anyone who thought (1) this would work and (2) it was the best possible call in that situation. Why not use Pro Bowl running back Frank Gore? Why not roll Hill out with a pass/run option? Whether or not Martz made the Robinson call, ultimately it is Singletary's responsibility to know his personnel and to veto calls that make no sense. I suspect that if Singletary is retained as the head coach he probably will want to hire a different offensive coordinator, one whose mindset more closely matches his own. That is not to say that Martz is a bad coach but Singletary seems to have a different philosophy than Martz does and for a team to be successful the coaching staff needs to have the same ideas about how to play the game.
Singletary certainly seems to understand both what he needs to do and the standard to which the players must hold themselves accountable: he candidly admitted that the 49ers' late game clock management was poor and when someone asked him if he was "happy" that the players displayed energy and intensity he scofffingly replied that happy is not the right word--he expects his players to have energy and be intense and he believes he should be sent home if it ever gets to the point that they don't display those qualities. Singletary is a rookie head coach who will make some mistakes but he is also a breath of fresh air because of his passion and candor, so I hope that he will be provided a full and fair opportunity to build a team in his image.
Here are some notes/comments about Sunday's action:
*The Browns lost to the Broncos 34-30 on Thursday, blowing a two touchdown second half lead at home for the second consecutive game. Cleveland's defense seemed to have improved early in the season but now it is an unmitigated disaster area, giving up 564 yards versus Denver; that is the third worst total in the 803 game NFL history of the franchise, dating back to 1950 when the Browns were one of three All-America Football Conference (AAFC) teams that joined the more established league. The Browns have surrendered 993 yards in the past two games, the most that the team has ever allowed in consecutive contests--and considering how bad the Browns were right after they returned in 1999 that is really saying something.
Running back Jamal Lewis, who played for Baltimore's Super Bowl championship team in 2000, is disgusted by the attitude of some of his Cleveland teammates: "This is the NFL, you can't call it quits until the game is over. But it looks to me like some people called it quits before that. Denver was down, but they didn't call it quits. They kept their heads up and they finished. We didn't do that two weeks in a row--at home. Some people need to check their egos at the door and find some heart to come out here and play hard. This is a man's game. The way we went out there and played two weeks in a row, finishing the same kind of way, it's not there. I think there are some men around here that need to check their selves, straight up. That's it. Honestly, I've never seen anything like it ever in my life as long as I've been playing. I'm not cut from this kind of cloth. I play physical football, and I come out here and give it my all. I give it my all all week. To come out and be up by whatever--this is the NFL. You can't call it quits until the game is over."
Although Lewis' terminology may not have been quite correct--it would be more precise to say that the Browns lost focus, rather than to say that a team that was leading "quit"--but his overall message is right on point and a most telling indictment of a team that had several Pro Bowlers last season but lacks mental toughness and discipline. I'd go into battle with Lewis, Josh Cribbs, Joe Thomas and a few others but there are too many Cleveland players who clearly do not prepare properly during the week or focus on the task at hand during games.
The headline story for the Browns prior to the Denver game was about Brady Quinn replacing Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback. Quinn played well (23-35, 239 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions) but from a team standpoint there was no difference: with Anderson at quarterback the previous week versus Baltimore, the Browns built a big lead and lost; with Quinn at the controls the Browns did exactly the same thing. In other words, quarterback is not the central problem for the Browns. I think that the Browns can win with either quarterback but it has also become sadly apparent that they can lose with either quarterback. One obvious difference with Quinn at the helm is that the Browns looked a bit crisper, committing fewer false start penalties and seeming to be more organized. The NFL Network's Deion Sanders said that the Browns used a simplified game plan that enabled Quinn to be effective and that it also helped Quinn to play against Denver's weak defense, so the jury is still out until Quinn plays well against some tougher teams. Marshall Faulk wondered aloud why the Browns did not come up with a similar game plan to help Anderson shine--and that is a very good question, because Anderson definitely has the skills to be a very good quarterback. Barring injury, Quinn will almost certainly be the starter the rest of the way and Anderson will most likely be traded in the offseason--but I have the feeling that if Anderson lands on the right team, which is to say a team with a competent coaching staff, he will become a very productive quarterback. I have visions of him coming back to Cleveland wearing a different uniform and throwing for 350 yards and four touchdowns as his new team stomps the Browns.
The Browns' organization is flawed from the top down and until that is straightened out the team will not be successful. Bill Walsh used to always say that it should only take a well run team three years to become competitive. The Browns returned to the NFL in 1999 and have made the playoffs one time. During that period they have never been competitive for a sustained stretch--there was a one and done 9-7 playoff year in 2002 followed by four losing seasons and then a 10-6 campaign last year followed by this season's 3-6 showing. That is pathetic and inexcusable decade and reflects poorly on the ownership: the Lerner family has yet to hire the proper football decision makers capable of building a winning team.
*During Sunday evening's SportsCenter, John Saunders said that after Tom Brady suffered his season-ending injury in week one, "Most people thought that New England's season went down with him," adding that "nobody" thought that Matt Cassel--who Cris Carter keeps referring to as a "high school quarterback"--could competently take his place. Saunders needs to spend more time at BEST, because I have repeatedly said that with Cassel at the helm the Patriots can still be a dangerous playoff team, a point that I emphasized in my recap of New England's 41-7 victory over Denver and in last week's Monday Night Football Quick Hits, when I noted the similarities between Cassel's production so far and Brady's statistics right after he took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001:
Cassel cannot match the record breaking standard that Brady set last year but it is useful to remember that in Brady's first year as a starter--when, like Cassel, he was an inexperienced player stepping in for an injured veteran--Brady was not Brady either or at least he was not the Brady of recent vintage: the Patriots closed the 2001 season with six straight victories en route to winning the Super Bowl but in those six games Brady had just six touchdowns and five interceptions, compiling a passer rating below 64 in three of those contests (his passer rating overall that season was 86.5); during the three game playoff run Brady had one touchdown pass and one interception, accumulating passer ratings of 86.2, 84.3 and then 70.4 in the Super Bowl. I'm not saying that the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl this year--but given Bill Belichick's track record it would be foolish to totally dismiss their chances.
Some people speculate about what Belichick's career won-loss record would have been like without Tom Brady but it is just as valid to ask what Brady's career would have been like without Belichick; Belichick did an outstanding job of coaching Brady and bringing him along from being a backup quarterback to a solid starter to a Pro Bowler to an MVP. It is obviously far too soon to say what kind of player Cassel will ultimately become but any objective person can clearly see that Belichick and his staff have done an excellent job of coaching Cassel.
The Patriots will face the New York Jets on Thursday night with first place in the AFC East on the line. The Jets demolished St. Louis 47-3 on Sunday but their defense--and St. Louis miscues--set up a lot of those scores. Brett Favre threw for just 167 yards and one touchdown, though he did complete an outstanding 14 of his 19 attempts. Favre has put up decent statistics in his first year in New York but his replacement in Green Bay--Aaron Rodgers--and the quarterback that the Jets sent to Miami--Chad Pennington--are both having better seasons than Favre is. Pennington has rallied the 1-15 Dolphins to a 5-4 record, placing them just one game behind the Patriots and the Jets. While it is true that Green Bay has slid from 13-3 last year to 4-5 this season, that has much more to do with their leaky defense than with the quarterback change: Favre had a 95.7 passer rating last season, while Rodgers has a 93.3 passer rating this season. Favre's rating as a Jet this year is 89.8 and he leads the NFL in interceptions with 12, while Rodgers only has five interceptions.
Look for Favre to toss three interceptions versus New England as the Patriots beat the Jets to take over clear first place in the AFC East. The Jets have a better record than I expected them to have at this point but 6-3 could become 6-6 very quickly: after traveling to New England the Jets visit Tennessee and then face a Denver team that is fighting to stay on top in the AFC West.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday Night Football Quick Hits: Terrible Towel Overtime Edition
As a Cleveland Browns fan, watching Pittsburgh play Baltimore is a "good news/bad news" proposition: the good news is that one of the teams will lose but the bad news is that one of the teams will win (a scoreless tie would be nice but unrealistic even for these two defensive-minded teams). Although I root against both teams, I have a confession to make: I greatly respect the Steelers' organization and I wish that the Browns would use that franchise as a template for how to build a team. The Steelers believe in playing physical football on both sides of the ball and their players are disciplined, tough and focused. The Steelers have had three head coaches during my lifetime: Chuck Noll won four Super Bowls, Bill Cowher won one Super Bowl and it would not surprise me if Mike Tomlin--who is only in his second season as Pittsburgh's head coach--wins a Super Bowl at some point. Intelligent, tough minded leadership translates into winning and that is why the Steelers are regularly a playoff team and often a Super Bowl contender. The Steelers don't panic, whine or make excuses; they just get the job done. I wish that the preceding sentences could truthfully be said about the Browns.
Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore 23-20 in overtime, the Steelers' 14th straight home victory on Monday Night Football, extending their own NFL record. This was Baltimore's fifth straight MNF loss, which is tied for the third longest active streak. The Steelers' offense looked horrible during the first half and Baltimore led 13-3 late in the third quarter. Two Steelers--including first round draft pick Rashard Mendenhall--suffered season-ending injuries during the game and the Steelers were forced to use fourth string running back Mewelde Moore but they stayed true to their formula of physical, disciplined football and turned the game around in a 15 second span. First, Ben Roethlisberger connected with Santonio Holmes for a 38 yard touchdown pass to cut Baltimore's lead to 13-10. Then, James Harrison forced Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco to fumble and LaMarr Woodley scooped up the ball and rambled seven yards into the endzone to put Pittsburgh up 17-13. Pittsburgh later extended the lead to seven before Flacco led Baltimore on a 76 yard scoring drive that culminated in a two yard Le'Ron McClain touchdown run to tie the score at 20. After stopping the Steelers, the Ravens had an opportunity to go for the win in a two minute drill situation but they elected instead to play for overtime. The Ravens won the toss but went three and out, after which the Steelers quickly moved into field goal range and Jeff Reed slid a 46 yard kick just inside the left upright.
Baltimore finished the game with more total yards (243-237), more first downs (16-11) and more time of possession (34:22-31:43) but the Ravens committed eight penalties for 72 yards while the Steelers only had five infractions for 29 yards. One penalty in particular really hurt Baltimore: Jarret Johnson committed a personal foul after an eight yard run by Nate Washington just three plays before Roethlisberger's touchdown pass to Holmes. The Steelers had not done much on offense up to that point but those big 15 yards tacked on to the end of the run gave them some momentum and put them in scoring range.
ESPN's Monday Night Countdown show focused on a lot of nonsense but while we are drowning in an ocean of hype and biased commentary, Steve Young provides an oasis of rational analysis. Prior to the game, Stuart Scott tried to hype up the so-called bulletin board material that Steelers running back Mendenhall supposedly provided by sending a text message to his friend, Ravens running back Ray Rice, who promptly revealed the contents of the message to the rest of the Ravens. When Scott asked what Mendenhall should learn from this, Young rightly dismissed the whole issue as a non-story, declaring, "I'll tell you what he found out: that Ray Rice is not his friend. That's what he found out. He didn't say this to the press. He didn't say it to the media. He said it to his buddy in a text message, which can be all kinds of hyperbole that they do between friends. To have your friend send it to Ray Lewis seems a little bit over the top." Scott interjected, "But why take the chance?" Young responded, "Who cares? It's just between friends. It's just for fun. Like he said, 'I would never say that publicly.' Of course he wouldn't, because he's not that stupid. Here's the bottom line, though: I always laughed at teams that would say, 'Steve, we're going to really try to kill you this week.' Really? It's the NFL; it's the fastest game in the history of sports. You can't be any faster; you can't want it any more. Everybody is paid a bunch of money. All this bulletin board stuff, I think, is college stuff. Pro football, especially the Ravens, they are going to come 100,000 miles an hour (anyway). It doesn't matter."
Steve Young is right. Talk doesn't matter. Hype doesn't matter. The Steelers are just a little tougher and a little smarter and that is why they beat the Ravens and took over first place in the AFC North. If Ray Lewis needs some text message from a rookie to get hyped up for a game then he is not as tough or smart as he wants everyone to think that he is. Pittsburgh has made the playoffs in three of the previous four seasons and won one Super Bowl during that stretch, while Baltimore has made the playoffs just once in the past four years, so anyone who knows that history is not surprised that Pittsburgh found a way to win this game. Mendenhall's comments had nothing to do with the outcome of the game.
Here are some notes/comments about Sunday's action:
This was not the Rose Bowl, the Orange Bowl or even the Poulan Weed-Eater Bowl. No, it was the Ineptitude Bowl, hosted by the winless Cincinnati Bengals and won 20-12 by the previously winless Cleveland Browns. With apologies to Gene Rayburn and "The Match Game," "How inept was it?" It was so inept that the teams combined for 15 penalties (nine by Cleveland, six by Cincinnati) and seven turnovers (two by Cleveland, five by Cincinnati). At the end of the game, the Browns received a delay of game penalty when they could not figure out how to get the right 11 players on the field to go into "victory formation" for a kneel down; to be fair, this is not a formation that the Browns have used very often recently. One play epitomized the mutual ineptitude that characterized this contest: late in the first half, Bengals quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick--playing in place of injured starter Carson Palmer--was intercepted by Eric Wright, who apparently thought that this was his opportunity to showcase his open field running skills and ability to choreograph blocking schemes; while Wright ran around and gestured to indicate what his blockers should do, Cincinnati running back Chris Perry rocked his world and knocked the ball loose. Chad Loco Cinco (who was a non-factor with just three catches for 28 yards, though he did catch his first TD of the season) recovered for the Bengals at the Cleveland 45 yard line for a gain of five yards and a first down. Cincinnati then advanced the ball 17 yards in seven plays to kick a field goal to take a 6-3 halftime lead. The Browns scored two third quarter touchdowns and then hung on for dear life to avoid falling into the AFC North cellar.
Browns' fans continue to call for quarterback Derek Anderson's head. Granted, Anderson has hardly distinguished himself this season but last year he was 10-5 as a starter and was selected to the Pro Bowl. He had the best season that a Browns quarterback has had since Bernie Kosar was in his prime. Anderson has the necessary physical tools to be a top of the line NFL quarterback. Yes, he needs to improve his decision making and his accuracy but if you carefully examine NFL history you will find that many championship-winning quarterbacks struggled to some extent before putting everything together. Eli Manning is a good example of this. I'm not saying that Anderson will definitely become a championship-winning quarterback but it is silly and counterproductive to focus so much wrath at him when the Browns are underperforming in so many other areas. Anderson struggled in the first half against the Bengals but in the second half he made some nice throws and led the team on the scoring drives that won the game. Roethlisberger did not look great for much of the game against Baltimore but he got it done when it counted. John Elway used to do that, too; think about it: you don't set records for fourth quarter comebacks unless you made some mistakes earlier in the game to fall behind in the first place. The thing that I hate most about the Browns' quarterback controversy is that it seems like some Cleveland fans are rooting against Anderson just so that they can crow about being "right" that Brady Quinn should be the starter. I want to see the Browns win and I would never root against the team's starting quarterback, whoever he may be. The Browns need to get everyone healthy and back on the field and then they can more fairly evaluate Anderson's performance. Right now, all that can honestly be said is that Anderson can make some throws that few other NFL quarterbacks can make but there are still some rough edges to his game that need to be smoothed out. By the way, Terry Bradshaw did not throw more touchdowns than interceptions in a season until his sixth season and he ended up leading Pittsburgh to four Super Bowl titles. The Browns have done a pretty good job of providing players and/or coaches for Super Bowl winning teams in the past two decades (Earnest Byner, Keenan McCardell, Matt Stover are just three of 59 former Browns who have participated in the Super Bowl since Tony Grossi became the Plain Dealer's beat writer for the Browns in the 1980s), so before they cast Anderson aside they better be sure that he is not going to be the next Jim Plunkett (a so-called bust for New England and San Francisco in the 1970s who led the Raiders to two Super Bowl wins).
The Washington Redskins earned an impressive 26-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas as Jim Zorn became the first Washington coach since George Allen to win his first game in Texas Stadium. Naturally, whenever Dallas loses the "experts" look for excuses to either blame Terrell Owens or assert that Owens is "selfish." Owens finished with seven receptions for 71 yards and one touchdown, plus two rushes for 11 yards. As usual, Owens not only made plays but he attracted extra defensive attention that opened up opportunities for his teammates. Dallas' problem was not on offense--the Cowboys gained 344 yards and converted six of 12 third down plays--but rather on defense: the Redskins gained 381 yards and controlled the ball for 38:09. Clearly, when the Cowboys had the ball they were productive but their defense was not able to get enough stops. Yet, instead of speaking this simple truth, the Monday Night Countdown crew devoted a whole segment to nothing but bashing Owens. Tom Jackson and Chris Berman both said that they have "read this book before and know how it ends," suggesting that Owens will soon be feuding with quarterback Tony Romo. This echoed an earlier Trent Dilfer lament that instead of talking about how well Washington played they were forced to discuss Owens. Guess what, Trent? No one is forcing you to do anything. You are one cog in the machine that calls itself the "Worldwide Leader" and you and that machine can focus your massive resources on whatever you choose to talk about, so nothing is stopping you from devoting a whole segment to what Washington did well as opposed to what Owens is supposedly doing wrong.
Isn't it interesting how Jackson and Cris Carter spent the first month of the season campaigning for the Jets to open up their offense and throw the ball more to take advantage of Brett Favre's talents but they think that it is a bad thing that Owens wants the Cowboys to open up their offense to take advantage of his skills? Owens has more touchdown receptions than anyone in NFL history other than Jerry Rice and the Romo-Owens tandem has produced more TD receptions than any other duo in the league since Romo became a starter. The bottom line is that the Cowboys should have Owens run the deep routes that he wants to run and that when he is single-covered or beats the defense Romo should throw him the ball, whether that is five times a game or 25 times a game; if the defense reacts by double-teaming Owens, then Romo should go elsewhere--but the onus is then on Romo and whoever is "elsewhere" to be productive. Berman, Jackson and the others on the Monday Night Countdown set made a big deal that 19 or 20 of the Cowboys' offensive plays versus Washington involved Owens but that number is meaningless without context. What really matters is how many times Owens was open, how many of those times he got the ball and how productive he was. If Romo threw Owens the ball when Owens was not open, that is not Owens' fault. Owens has said all along that he doesn't care how often he gets the ball as long as the team is winning, so if someone else is open then Romo should throw that guy the ball and keep the chains moving. Owens is not saying that the Cowboys should force the ball to him; he is saying that he wants to run certain routes so that he can get open more easily against the way defenses are covering him, thus enabling him to make more plays. Why is that a bad thing? How is that any different than the Jets opening things up to take advantage of Favre's arm strength? Why is Favre everyone's hero but everyone thinks that it is OK to crap on Owens night and day? I would not suggest that I know more about football than the former Pro Bowl players on the Monday Night Countdown set, so one is forced to assume that at some level they know that what they are saying is not true; they go after Owens either for reasons of personal animus or because the show's producers think that controversy makes for better, more entertaining television. Owens is not perfect--no one is--but you cannot convince me that he deserves even a fraction of the negative coverage that he receives.
Also, who the hell is Keyshawn Johnson to say that if the ball were thrown to him 20 times he'd make 20 catches and his team would win? Johnson also repeatedly said that Owens does not care about winning. The truth is that Owens owns the NFL single game reception record with 20, while Johnson was never the deep threat or reliable scoring option that Owens is, so the only place that Johnson is catching 20 balls is in his overactive imagination. Owens worked hard to rehab a broken ankle and was arguably the best player on the field during Super Bowl XXXIX, catching nine passes for 122 yards as his Philadelphia Eagles lost to the New England Patriots 24-21 as Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb ran out of gas down the stretch. Johnson did play on a Super Bowl championship team in 2002 with Tampa Bay but midway through the next season he was the third leading receiver on the squad when Coach Jon Gruden suspended him for the rest of the season for conduct detrimental to the team. Based on skill set and attitude, Johnson is quite possibly the last person on Earth who should ever open his mouth to comment about Owens' abilities, work ethic or commitment to winning. As for Cris Carter, unlike Johnson he was a great player but it is a little tiresome to hear Carter lecture Owens about character and commitment. Carter is a former drug addict whose off field problems came close to ruining his career; I give Carter all the credit in the world for straightening his life out but as far as we know Owens has never been in trouble with the law and he has always worked extremely hard to develop his God-given talents to the fullest. Owens is a self-made man who should be admired for his work ethic and dedication. Maybe he has not always said the right things but he has always done the right things on and off the field to be the most productive football player he can be. Give me a locker room full of guys like that and I'd gladly go to battle fully expecting to contend for a Super Bowl title every year. One of the reasons that Bill Belichick is so successful is that he ignores what the media says about players and he makes his own judgments. According to the media, Corey Dillon was supposedly a bad guy, a malcontent, but Belichick recognized that Dillon was just frustrated by the unprofessional atmosphere in Cincinnati (as opposed to one of ESPN's favorite receivers, Loco Cinco, who is a major factor in why that atmosphere is still unprofessional) and Dillon went on to be a major contributor to New England's Super Bowl winning team in the 2004 season. I guarantee you that Belichick would sign Owens in a heartbeat if Owens were available.
Isn't it amazing that the same guys who are killing Owens have nothing but good things to say about Steve Smith, a player who on two separate occasions assaulted one of his teammates? Smith has serious anger management issues and he should either be in jail or at the very least be receiving appropriate counseling but instead he is back on the field and the ESPN guys are falling over themselves to praise Smith because after he scored a touchdown he gave the ball to his most recent assault victim, Ken Lucas. If one of your co-workers broke your nose but he gave you a souvenir would you feel satisfied? Would you think that this gesture proved that he was a great guy? What hurts a team more: asking that the offensive game plan fully utilize your abilities or injuring a starting player on your own team and getting suspended? I'd love to hear the full version of what questions Owens was actually asked and the full version of his answers, because a classic mainstream media propaganda technique involves "creative" editing of soundbites; it "works" for everyone from "60 Minutes" to "SportsCenter."
This weekend was sheer heaven for ESPN's crew because they not only seized the opportunity to create a Terrell Owens controversy out of thin air but Brett Favre had a performance for the ages, throwing a career-high six touchdown passes (he had five TDs in a game on three previous occasions, most recently in 1998) as the New York Jets defeated the Arizona Cardinals 56-35. Favre had been hobbled during the week by a left ankle injury but he once again showcased his amazing durability and proved that he still has a lot of ammunition left in his rocket arm. Favre's Arizona counterpart, Kurt Warner, helped out the Jets with a schizophrenic performance that included 472 passing yards, two touchdowns--and six (!) turnovers: three interceptions and three fumbles lost (Warner fumbled a fourth time but Arizona retained possession). Favre rightly cautioned that after this win the Jets should not start printing up playoff tickets or Super Bowl tickets; he understands that Arizona has historically been a horrible road team--particularly on the East Coast--and that you cannot count on forcing seven turnovers (Anquan Boldin lost a fumble in addition to Warner's miscues) every week. The Jets' defense is leaky--giving up 35 second half points--and it remains to be seen if New York can beat high quality, tough minded teams. Nevertheless, when a soon to be 39 year old future Hall of Famer like Favre can add yet another line to his personal record book that is impressive, even if all of ESPN's crowing about Favre is going to look silly by the end of the season when the Jets don't make the playoffs.
Quote of the Week: "Two more flags and you would have had an amusement park."--Ron Jaworski after four penalty flags hit the turf following the opening kickoff of overtime during Pittsburgh's 23-20 overtime Monday Night Football win over Baltimore.
Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore 23-20 in overtime, the Steelers' 14th straight home victory on Monday Night Football, extending their own NFL record. This was Baltimore's fifth straight MNF loss, which is tied for the third longest active streak. The Steelers' offense looked horrible during the first half and Baltimore led 13-3 late in the third quarter. Two Steelers--including first round draft pick Rashard Mendenhall--suffered season-ending injuries during the game and the Steelers were forced to use fourth string running back Mewelde Moore but they stayed true to their formula of physical, disciplined football and turned the game around in a 15 second span. First, Ben Roethlisberger connected with Santonio Holmes for a 38 yard touchdown pass to cut Baltimore's lead to 13-10. Then, James Harrison forced Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco to fumble and LaMarr Woodley scooped up the ball and rambled seven yards into the endzone to put Pittsburgh up 17-13. Pittsburgh later extended the lead to seven before Flacco led Baltimore on a 76 yard scoring drive that culminated in a two yard Le'Ron McClain touchdown run to tie the score at 20. After stopping the Steelers, the Ravens had an opportunity to go for the win in a two minute drill situation but they elected instead to play for overtime. The Ravens won the toss but went three and out, after which the Steelers quickly moved into field goal range and Jeff Reed slid a 46 yard kick just inside the left upright.
Baltimore finished the game with more total yards (243-237), more first downs (16-11) and more time of possession (34:22-31:43) but the Ravens committed eight penalties for 72 yards while the Steelers only had five infractions for 29 yards. One penalty in particular really hurt Baltimore: Jarret Johnson committed a personal foul after an eight yard run by Nate Washington just three plays before Roethlisberger's touchdown pass to Holmes. The Steelers had not done much on offense up to that point but those big 15 yards tacked on to the end of the run gave them some momentum and put them in scoring range.
ESPN's Monday Night Countdown show focused on a lot of nonsense but while we are drowning in an ocean of hype and biased commentary, Steve Young provides an oasis of rational analysis. Prior to the game, Stuart Scott tried to hype up the so-called bulletin board material that Steelers running back Mendenhall supposedly provided by sending a text message to his friend, Ravens running back Ray Rice, who promptly revealed the contents of the message to the rest of the Ravens. When Scott asked what Mendenhall should learn from this, Young rightly dismissed the whole issue as a non-story, declaring, "I'll tell you what he found out: that Ray Rice is not his friend. That's what he found out. He didn't say this to the press. He didn't say it to the media. He said it to his buddy in a text message, which can be all kinds of hyperbole that they do between friends. To have your friend send it to Ray Lewis seems a little bit over the top." Scott interjected, "But why take the chance?" Young responded, "Who cares? It's just between friends. It's just for fun. Like he said, 'I would never say that publicly.' Of course he wouldn't, because he's not that stupid. Here's the bottom line, though: I always laughed at teams that would say, 'Steve, we're going to really try to kill you this week.' Really? It's the NFL; it's the fastest game in the history of sports. You can't be any faster; you can't want it any more. Everybody is paid a bunch of money. All this bulletin board stuff, I think, is college stuff. Pro football, especially the Ravens, they are going to come 100,000 miles an hour (anyway). It doesn't matter."
Steve Young is right. Talk doesn't matter. Hype doesn't matter. The Steelers are just a little tougher and a little smarter and that is why they beat the Ravens and took over first place in the AFC North. If Ray Lewis needs some text message from a rookie to get hyped up for a game then he is not as tough or smart as he wants everyone to think that he is. Pittsburgh has made the playoffs in three of the previous four seasons and won one Super Bowl during that stretch, while Baltimore has made the playoffs just once in the past four years, so anyone who knows that history is not surprised that Pittsburgh found a way to win this game. Mendenhall's comments had nothing to do with the outcome of the game.
Here are some notes/comments about Sunday's action:
This was not the Rose Bowl, the Orange Bowl or even the Poulan Weed-Eater Bowl. No, it was the Ineptitude Bowl, hosted by the winless Cincinnati Bengals and won 20-12 by the previously winless Cleveland Browns. With apologies to Gene Rayburn and "The Match Game," "How inept was it?" It was so inept that the teams combined for 15 penalties (nine by Cleveland, six by Cincinnati) and seven turnovers (two by Cleveland, five by Cincinnati). At the end of the game, the Browns received a delay of game penalty when they could not figure out how to get the right 11 players on the field to go into "victory formation" for a kneel down; to be fair, this is not a formation that the Browns have used very often recently. One play epitomized the mutual ineptitude that characterized this contest: late in the first half, Bengals quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick--playing in place of injured starter Carson Palmer--was intercepted by Eric Wright, who apparently thought that this was his opportunity to showcase his open field running skills and ability to choreograph blocking schemes; while Wright ran around and gestured to indicate what his blockers should do, Cincinnati running back Chris Perry rocked his world and knocked the ball loose. Chad Loco Cinco (who was a non-factor with just three catches for 28 yards, though he did catch his first TD of the season) recovered for the Bengals at the Cleveland 45 yard line for a gain of five yards and a first down. Cincinnati then advanced the ball 17 yards in seven plays to kick a field goal to take a 6-3 halftime lead. The Browns scored two third quarter touchdowns and then hung on for dear life to avoid falling into the AFC North cellar.
Browns' fans continue to call for quarterback Derek Anderson's head. Granted, Anderson has hardly distinguished himself this season but last year he was 10-5 as a starter and was selected to the Pro Bowl. He had the best season that a Browns quarterback has had since Bernie Kosar was in his prime. Anderson has the necessary physical tools to be a top of the line NFL quarterback. Yes, he needs to improve his decision making and his accuracy but if you carefully examine NFL history you will find that many championship-winning quarterbacks struggled to some extent before putting everything together. Eli Manning is a good example of this. I'm not saying that Anderson will definitely become a championship-winning quarterback but it is silly and counterproductive to focus so much wrath at him when the Browns are underperforming in so many other areas. Anderson struggled in the first half against the Bengals but in the second half he made some nice throws and led the team on the scoring drives that won the game. Roethlisberger did not look great for much of the game against Baltimore but he got it done when it counted. John Elway used to do that, too; think about it: you don't set records for fourth quarter comebacks unless you made some mistakes earlier in the game to fall behind in the first place. The thing that I hate most about the Browns' quarterback controversy is that it seems like some Cleveland fans are rooting against Anderson just so that they can crow about being "right" that Brady Quinn should be the starter. I want to see the Browns win and I would never root against the team's starting quarterback, whoever he may be. The Browns need to get everyone healthy and back on the field and then they can more fairly evaluate Anderson's performance. Right now, all that can honestly be said is that Anderson can make some throws that few other NFL quarterbacks can make but there are still some rough edges to his game that need to be smoothed out. By the way, Terry Bradshaw did not throw more touchdowns than interceptions in a season until his sixth season and he ended up leading Pittsburgh to four Super Bowl titles. The Browns have done a pretty good job of providing players and/or coaches for Super Bowl winning teams in the past two decades (Earnest Byner, Keenan McCardell, Matt Stover are just three of 59 former Browns who have participated in the Super Bowl since Tony Grossi became the Plain Dealer's beat writer for the Browns in the 1980s), so before they cast Anderson aside they better be sure that he is not going to be the next Jim Plunkett (a so-called bust for New England and San Francisco in the 1970s who led the Raiders to two Super Bowl wins).
The Washington Redskins earned an impressive 26-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas as Jim Zorn became the first Washington coach since George Allen to win his first game in Texas Stadium. Naturally, whenever Dallas loses the "experts" look for excuses to either blame Terrell Owens or assert that Owens is "selfish." Owens finished with seven receptions for 71 yards and one touchdown, plus two rushes for 11 yards. As usual, Owens not only made plays but he attracted extra defensive attention that opened up opportunities for his teammates. Dallas' problem was not on offense--the Cowboys gained 344 yards and converted six of 12 third down plays--but rather on defense: the Redskins gained 381 yards and controlled the ball for 38:09. Clearly, when the Cowboys had the ball they were productive but their defense was not able to get enough stops. Yet, instead of speaking this simple truth, the Monday Night Countdown crew devoted a whole segment to nothing but bashing Owens. Tom Jackson and Chris Berman both said that they have "read this book before and know how it ends," suggesting that Owens will soon be feuding with quarterback Tony Romo. This echoed an earlier Trent Dilfer lament that instead of talking about how well Washington played they were forced to discuss Owens. Guess what, Trent? No one is forcing you to do anything. You are one cog in the machine that calls itself the "Worldwide Leader" and you and that machine can focus your massive resources on whatever you choose to talk about, so nothing is stopping you from devoting a whole segment to what Washington did well as opposed to what Owens is supposedly doing wrong.
Isn't it interesting how Jackson and Cris Carter spent the first month of the season campaigning for the Jets to open up their offense and throw the ball more to take advantage of Brett Favre's talents but they think that it is a bad thing that Owens wants the Cowboys to open up their offense to take advantage of his skills? Owens has more touchdown receptions than anyone in NFL history other than Jerry Rice and the Romo-Owens tandem has produced more TD receptions than any other duo in the league since Romo became a starter. The bottom line is that the Cowboys should have Owens run the deep routes that he wants to run and that when he is single-covered or beats the defense Romo should throw him the ball, whether that is five times a game or 25 times a game; if the defense reacts by double-teaming Owens, then Romo should go elsewhere--but the onus is then on Romo and whoever is "elsewhere" to be productive. Berman, Jackson and the others on the Monday Night Countdown set made a big deal that 19 or 20 of the Cowboys' offensive plays versus Washington involved Owens but that number is meaningless without context. What really matters is how many times Owens was open, how many of those times he got the ball and how productive he was. If Romo threw Owens the ball when Owens was not open, that is not Owens' fault. Owens has said all along that he doesn't care how often he gets the ball as long as the team is winning, so if someone else is open then Romo should throw that guy the ball and keep the chains moving. Owens is not saying that the Cowboys should force the ball to him; he is saying that he wants to run certain routes so that he can get open more easily against the way defenses are covering him, thus enabling him to make more plays. Why is that a bad thing? How is that any different than the Jets opening things up to take advantage of Favre's arm strength? Why is Favre everyone's hero but everyone thinks that it is OK to crap on Owens night and day? I would not suggest that I know more about football than the former Pro Bowl players on the Monday Night Countdown set, so one is forced to assume that at some level they know that what they are saying is not true; they go after Owens either for reasons of personal animus or because the show's producers think that controversy makes for better, more entertaining television. Owens is not perfect--no one is--but you cannot convince me that he deserves even a fraction of the negative coverage that he receives.
Also, who the hell is Keyshawn Johnson to say that if the ball were thrown to him 20 times he'd make 20 catches and his team would win? Johnson also repeatedly said that Owens does not care about winning. The truth is that Owens owns the NFL single game reception record with 20, while Johnson was never the deep threat or reliable scoring option that Owens is, so the only place that Johnson is catching 20 balls is in his overactive imagination. Owens worked hard to rehab a broken ankle and was arguably the best player on the field during Super Bowl XXXIX, catching nine passes for 122 yards as his Philadelphia Eagles lost to the New England Patriots 24-21 as Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb ran out of gas down the stretch. Johnson did play on a Super Bowl championship team in 2002 with Tampa Bay but midway through the next season he was the third leading receiver on the squad when Coach Jon Gruden suspended him for the rest of the season for conduct detrimental to the team. Based on skill set and attitude, Johnson is quite possibly the last person on Earth who should ever open his mouth to comment about Owens' abilities, work ethic or commitment to winning. As for Cris Carter, unlike Johnson he was a great player but it is a little tiresome to hear Carter lecture Owens about character and commitment. Carter is a former drug addict whose off field problems came close to ruining his career; I give Carter all the credit in the world for straightening his life out but as far as we know Owens has never been in trouble with the law and he has always worked extremely hard to develop his God-given talents to the fullest. Owens is a self-made man who should be admired for his work ethic and dedication. Maybe he has not always said the right things but he has always done the right things on and off the field to be the most productive football player he can be. Give me a locker room full of guys like that and I'd gladly go to battle fully expecting to contend for a Super Bowl title every year. One of the reasons that Bill Belichick is so successful is that he ignores what the media says about players and he makes his own judgments. According to the media, Corey Dillon was supposedly a bad guy, a malcontent, but Belichick recognized that Dillon was just frustrated by the unprofessional atmosphere in Cincinnati (as opposed to one of ESPN's favorite receivers, Loco Cinco, who is a major factor in why that atmosphere is still unprofessional) and Dillon went on to be a major contributor to New England's Super Bowl winning team in the 2004 season. I guarantee you that Belichick would sign Owens in a heartbeat if Owens were available.
Isn't it amazing that the same guys who are killing Owens have nothing but good things to say about Steve Smith, a player who on two separate occasions assaulted one of his teammates? Smith has serious anger management issues and he should either be in jail or at the very least be receiving appropriate counseling but instead he is back on the field and the ESPN guys are falling over themselves to praise Smith because after he scored a touchdown he gave the ball to his most recent assault victim, Ken Lucas. If one of your co-workers broke your nose but he gave you a souvenir would you feel satisfied? Would you think that this gesture proved that he was a great guy? What hurts a team more: asking that the offensive game plan fully utilize your abilities or injuring a starting player on your own team and getting suspended? I'd love to hear the full version of what questions Owens was actually asked and the full version of his answers, because a classic mainstream media propaganda technique involves "creative" editing of soundbites; it "works" for everyone from "60 Minutes" to "SportsCenter."
This weekend was sheer heaven for ESPN's crew because they not only seized the opportunity to create a Terrell Owens controversy out of thin air but Brett Favre had a performance for the ages, throwing a career-high six touchdown passes (he had five TDs in a game on three previous occasions, most recently in 1998) as the New York Jets defeated the Arizona Cardinals 56-35. Favre had been hobbled during the week by a left ankle injury but he once again showcased his amazing durability and proved that he still has a lot of ammunition left in his rocket arm. Favre's Arizona counterpart, Kurt Warner, helped out the Jets with a schizophrenic performance that included 472 passing yards, two touchdowns--and six (!) turnovers: three interceptions and three fumbles lost (Warner fumbled a fourth time but Arizona retained possession). Favre rightly cautioned that after this win the Jets should not start printing up playoff tickets or Super Bowl tickets; he understands that Arizona has historically been a horrible road team--particularly on the East Coast--and that you cannot count on forcing seven turnovers (Anquan Boldin lost a fumble in addition to Warner's miscues) every week. The Jets' defense is leaky--giving up 35 second half points--and it remains to be seen if New York can beat high quality, tough minded teams. Nevertheless, when a soon to be 39 year old future Hall of Famer like Favre can add yet another line to his personal record book that is impressive, even if all of ESPN's crowing about Favre is going to look silly by the end of the season when the Jets don't make the playoffs.
Quote of the Week: "Two more flags and you would have had an amusement park."--Ron Jaworski after four penalty flags hit the turf following the opening kickoff of overtime during Pittsburgh's 23-20 overtime Monday Night Football win over Baltimore.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
