The careers of great athletes look inevitable in retrospect, even if those careers did not look inevitable from the onset or during critical moments. In 10 years--if not sooner--the Kansas City Chiefs' 25-22 win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII to clinch back to back championships will be viewed as just another triumph during the midst of the Chiefs capturing three Super Bowls in a five year span. The Chiefs are the NFL's first repeat champions since the 2003-04 New England Patriots. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes earned his third Super Bowl MVP, joining Tom Brady (five) and Joe Montana (four) as the only players to win at least three Super Bowl MVPs. Like Brady and Montana, Mahomes has often engineered come from behind scoring drives to reach and then win the Super Bowl; a dropped pass, a tipped ball, or a missed kick could have derailed any of those drives, but after those drives enter the record books they look inevitable, not fragile.
During Super Bowl LVIII there were many moments when a Chiefs' victory seemed far from inevitable. The 49ers were favored in every game that they played during the regular season and the playoffs, and they lived up to that billing for most of the Super Bowl; they scored first in the Super Bowl, taking a 3-0 lead at the 14:48 mark of the second quarter. They did not trail until Mahomes connected with Marquez Valdes-Scanling on a 16 yard touchdown pass that put the Chiefs up 13-10 with 2:28 remaining in the third quarter, and the 49ers quickly countered with a 75 yard drive culminating in a 10 yard touchdown pass from Brock Purdy to Jauan Jennings with 11:22 remaining in the fourth quarter, putting them ahead 16-13; the Chiefs blocked Jake Moody's point after touchdown, which proved to be a pivotal play affecting strategy and play calling for the rest of the game due to the critical difference between leading by four points and only leading by three points. The teams exchanged field goals during the final 5:46, with the Chiefs' Harrison Butker sending the game to overtime by drilling a 29 yarder with :03 remaining in the fourth quarter. The 49ers took the opening kickoff of overtime and drove 66 yards before Moody made a 27 yard field goal to put them up, 22-19. The 49ers were one defensive stop away from dethroning the reigning Super Bowl champions--but Mahomes led the Chiefs on a 13 play, 75 yard drive culminating in his three yard touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman. Mahomes completed all eight of his passes during the game-winning drive as the Chiefs had two third down conversions and one fourth down conversion. Overall, Mahomes went 34-46 for 333 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception while also leading the team in rushing with 66 yards on nine carries.
Anyone who has played sports at any level understands that a great player elevates his team not only because of his individual talent but also because of the confidence that he inspires in the team: when you play alongside a great player, you know that the game is rarely if ever truly out of reach, so you keep plugging away at your job with the understanding that if the game is close at the end then the great player will probably find a way to put the team over the top. Conversely, teams that do not have a great player are more apt to lose confidence or hope, and thus not keep pushing; when things are not going well, it is human nature to get frustrated and lose focus, but great players transcend that aspect of human nature and thus they inspire their teammates to be transcendent as well.
That is not meant to suggest that the 49ers lack great players or that they gave up. Purdy may be a great player in the making, and it is worth noting that he put his team in the lead after each of his final two drives, forcing Mahomes to direct a drive to tie the game and then direct another drive to win the game.
Football is a game of inches, and Chiefs have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to find the inches that they need to win games. Change just a handful of plays, and Mahomes has no Super Bowl wins instead of three, but that is not how football--or life--works. Mahomes has proven his ability to rise to the occasion when it matters most, regardless of how he, his team, or the other team performed prior to the critical moment. In retrospect, this seems inevitable, much like we don't think about the hypothetical ways that Michael Jordan might not have won six NBA titles; those championships seem inevitable in retrospect.
However, just a few months before Jordan led the Chicago Bulls to their first NBA championship, his teammate Bill Cartwright provided this assessment of Jordan (as related on page 249 of Sam Smith's book The Jordan Rules): "He's the greatest athlete I've ever seen. Maybe the greatest athlete
ever to play any sport. He can do whatever he wants. It all comes so
easy to him. He's just not a basketball player." Many "experts" declared that Jordan was too selfish to ever win a championship; what looks inevitable in retrospect did not seem likely or even possible to many people before it happened. It is fascinating to watch narratives develop and shift over time. Did Michael Jordan's essence as a player change in just a few months, or did he exploit opportunities as those opportunities presented themselves? It took Jordan seven years to reach the NBA Finals for the first time, but after that point he won all six times he reached the NBA Finals. During those championship runs, Jordan's Bulls beat the L.A. Lakers 4-1 in the 1991 NBA Finals after losing game one, they overcame a 2-0 deficit versus the New York Knicks in 1993, they survived a tough seven game series with the Indiana Pacers in 1998, and they beat the Utah Jazz 4-2 in the 1998 NBA Finals after losing game one. In retrospect, all we remember or see is that Jordan went 6-0 in the NBA Finals; the bumps in the road are forgotten, and the prevailing narrative describes a smooth, inevitable path: Jordan's career is summarized by listing the six championships that he won, not the preceding years during which he failed to reach the NBA Finals, and not the playoff series during which his team trailed and could have lost.
Similarly, Mahomes' journey has not always been smooth, but with three Super Bowl wins by the age of 28 he has entered rarefied air, and thus the prevailing narrative compares him with the greatest quarterbacks of all-time. In that conversation, it is important to remember that Tom Brady won seven Super Bowls (including a victory versus Mahomes' Chiefs in Super Bowl LV) and Otto Graham won seven championships in a 10 year AAFC/NFL career. In other words, Mahomes will have to add another haul of Super Bowl rings equal to the career totals of Terry Bradshaw or Joe Montana just to tie Brady or Graham; it should be obvious that this will not be an easy task even for someone as young and great as Mahomes. Football is perhaps the ultimate team sport: the quarterback runs the show on offense and deservedly gets a lot of credit for team wins/team championships, but team wins and team championships are impossible to achieve without the combined efforts of dozens of other players, plus the coaching staff.
Speaking of coaches, remember when Andy Reid was derided as a coach who is not capable of winning the big game? Hall of Fame coaches Don Shula and Tom Landry were both saddled with that label before winning two Super Bowls each, and now Reid is one of just five coaches with at least three Super Bowl wins, though it should be noted that Paul Brown won four AAFC titles plus three NFL titles, while George Halas won five NFL titles, and Vince Lombardi won three NFL titles before capturing two Super Bowl titles. Shula and Landry are revered as winners, and no one talks about their early, painful playoff defeats; in a similar fashion, Reid has transformed the narrative about his career. Just as it may have once looked inevitable that Shula, Landry, and Reid would never win the big one, in retrospect it seems obvious that they were destined to capture multiple championships.
Next season, Mahomes, Reid, and the Chiefs have an opportunity to win an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl--and if they accomplish that feat, no one will remember how close that game was.
4 comments:
This is one of the problems I have with how most people rate players. Mahomes is amazing, no doubt. But if Butker misses his 57-yard record-setting FG and/or Moody doesn't have his PAT blocked just for 2 examples, it's highly unlikely the Chiefs win. None of that diminishes how great Mahomes is and played in the Super Bowl. But if similar things happen during each of Mahomes' Super Bowl runs, he has 0 titles. He is viewed much less amazing if he only has 2, 1, or 0 titles compared to his current 3 titles. The inverse could be the same for someone winning a lot. Players are often viewed much better than they actually are with the more titles they have.
Purdy looks like a serviceable starting QB, but that's about it. There's very few starting QBs in the league that couldn't have gotten the 49ers to the Super Bowl. They were a completely stacked team top to bottom around Purdy. With that said, the 49ers were very fortunate to win even 1 playoff game, let alone 2. But then their and most specifically Purdy's narrative would've changed dramatically if they won the Super Bowl. It still has some.
I want to ask about the final TD. I can't seem to find an explanation. But, if that final play would've resulted short of a TD for the Chiefs and time ran out, would the game have been over? It seems to me that the Chiefs messed that up severely and could've had several more chances to score a TD if they used their remaining timeouts before having to settle for a FG if they failed to score a TD. It seemed surprising to me that they wouldn't call a timeout with 30-40 seconds left instead of starting the last play with 7 seconds left. I guess the 49ers were confused too.
Anonymous:
The points you raised in your first paragraph echo the theme of my article: what may look inevitable from a historical standpoint was often far from inevitable as it happened.
You are underrating Purdy. He played very well in the Super Bowl, and each of the last two times that he left the field he had given his team the lead. The loss should not be blamed on him, and I disagree that most starting QBs could have taken the 49ers to the Super Bowl. Most starting QBs make more mistakes than Purdy does, and most of them cannot make the reads and throws that he makes.
The playoff OT timing--as explained during the telecast--requires that each team be given an opportunity to score on offense (unless the first TD is scored by the defense). So, if the Chiefs had not scored a TD then the OT would have continued into a second OT quarter with the Chiefs needing a FG to continue the game or a TD to win on the spot.
I think that's besides the point if Purdy left the field with his team in the lead. There's a lot more to it than just that. He didn't play poorly, but there's nothing exciting to me about his overall play. And it's not like the 49ers were scoring much or doing very well offensively which was primarily his fault. Unlike with Mahomes who has a lot less to work with than Purdy and yes he did make one bad throw for an INT, but his teammates kept fumbling the ball and he had horrible field position most of the game. Mahomes was playing awesome or doing the most he could.
The 49ers 2 TDs happened from bizarre circumstances(trick play that Purdy wasn't really involved in and a desperation 4th down call just before their 2nd TD, which then Jennings was wide open in the end zone). The Chiefs do have a solid defense, but the 49ers offense struggled mightily. He usually had all day to throw because of his stellar O-line, and we all know when a QB has all day to throw, basically all of them can pick apart any defense. Not to mention he has by far the best RB in the league, probably the best FB, a top 5 TE, and excellent WRs. It's nearly impossible not to succeed with all of that for any NFL-caliber QB. Looking at all the 49ers playoff games, there's a lot left to be desired. The 49ers had to comeback in each of their 2 wins, and one was basically a miracle comeback vs. the Lions. The other was against a barely better than mediocre team in the Packers where Purdy kept throwing the ball straight to the Packers defenders but they couldn't catch it. That's basically pure luck when stuff like that happens.
Ahh, thanks for the clarification. I didn't know that having one opportunity stopped at the end of the 1st OT or not. Seems a bit odd to have a game clock then. But, if the Chiefs had made a FG to tie the game instead of winning with a TD and then the 49ers make a FG to go back up by 3, do the Chiefs get another chance to tie/win or is the game over then?
Anonymous:
This season, Purdy led the NFL in passer rating, TD%, yards per attempt, and QBR. Moving away from the numbers/analytics, if you watch him play it is evident that he sees the field well and can make any throw. His playoff numbers were lower but still very good, and one would expect playoff numbers to be lower than regular season numbers due to strength of opposition. There is plentiful evidence that he is a well above average quarterback, so we can agree to disagree.
If the Chiefs had tied the game with a field goal, then the overtime becomes sudden death, which means that the next team that scores in any way wins the game.
Post a Comment