V Thoughts About Super Bowl XLVII

I: The term "elite" is thrown around far too casually but, regardless of how we should properly characterize Joe Flacco's overall body of work and/or current ranking among NFL quarterbacks, it is indisputable that Flacco just authored one of the greatest postseason runs ever by a quarterback: 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while leading the Baltimore Ravens to road victories against teams helmed by the two best quarterbacks of this era (Tom Brady and Peyton Manning) en route to capturing the Super Bowl MVP after dissecting a dominant San Francisco 49ers defense by completing 22 of 33 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Call him Bazooka Joe, because he has a cannon for a right arm, a cannon that blows apart opposing defenses with accurate downfield shots at crucial moments.

II: Boomer Esiason nailed it; Esiason gave his CBS colleague (and former Ray Lewis teammate) Shannon Sharpe credit for directly asking Ray Lewis about Lewis' role in the still-unsolved double murder of Jacinth Baker and Richard Lollar for which Lewis pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice but Esiason bluntly stated what no one on ESPN (and just about every other media outlet) dared to say: Lewis' answers about that crime are completely unsatisfactory and Lewis' legacy is tainted by that crime. Lewis' comments to Sharpe were particularly callous and heartless; Lewis said "God has never made a mistake" and Lewis not only took credit for paying money to the victims' families (which he did not out of the kindness of his heart but to settle civil lawsuits) but he declared that his success on the football field after those murders proves his innocence because he believes that God would never elevate to prominence someone who did wrong. By Lewis' twisted standard, no successful person could ever be convicted of a crime; apparently, Lewis never heard of Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin and a myriad of other historical figures who attained lasting fame/notoriety while committing horrific crimes. I am not equating Lewis with Hitler and Stalin but the point is that it is presumptuous for anyone--let alone a man like Lewis who has yet to divulge all that he knows about the double murder--to speak for God and/or God's plan. Lewis' abilities/success as a football player do not justify anything that he does off of the football field, though it is obvious that he and many others think otherwise; far too many athletes, members of the media and fans apparently believe that if someone can get 15 tackles in a playoff game then it is OK if that person literally gets away with murder (or, at the very least, is an accessory to murder by keeping silent).

If Lewis truly wants to be a great humanitarian then he must give a complete account of what really happened on the night of the double murder--period, point blank. Nothing else that he says or does will ever outweigh his role as participant and/or accessory in that crime. Lewis can start by explaining what happened to the clothes he was wearing that night, then he can explain how blood from one of the victims (Jacinth Baker) ended up in his limousine and finally he can detail exactly what he did and/or saw during the two killings.

III: Before the Super Bowl, Colin Kaepernick said that there is no reason to be nervous before a game as long as you prepare properly. That sounds good but the reality is that great performers ranging from Johnny Carson to Emmitt Smith have all admitted to being very nervous before appearing on the biggest stage--and Kaepernick himself certainly looked nervous at times during the first half of the Super Bowl. Kaepernick was in a bit of denial prior to the big game but he adjusted well and he almost led his 49ers to the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.

IV: Steve Young said that the Super Bowl is often decided in the first half because one team is not quite ready and falls too far behind due to mental errors and mistakes. Even though the 49ers ultimately made the game close, Young's description proved to be accurate (although his prediction about who would win was wrong) and it must be admitted that the game was essentially decided in the first 30 minutes (or, to be precise, the first 31 minutes, as the Jacoby Jones kickoff return on the opening play of the second half effectively put the game out of reach).

V: I don't have access to the "all 22" coaches' film so maybe I am missing something but I just do not understand why the 49ers did not run four plays out of the Pistol formation once they reached Baltimore's five yard line on their last drive of the game; the passes that the 49ers attempted were high risk, low reward and I do not believe that the Ravens could have stopped the run/pass option four straight times with the game on the line: the 49ers could have spread the Ravens out to mitigate the pass rush and then Kaepernick would have been able to either run for the score or else pass to a receiver who was single-covered. Yes, everything seems a lot simpler when viewed from one's living room couch as opposed to when viewed from the sidelines of the biggest game of the year but I think that John Harbaugh outcoached Jim Harbaugh in that crucial sequence of plays.

Analyzing the "Harbaugh Bowl"

Super Bowl XLVII will likely always be called the "Harbaugh Bowl" (or "Harbaugh Bowl I" if brothers Jim and John Harbaugh face each other more than once in the NFL's biggest game) but the outcome will not be decided by coaching--the two excellent coaches will cancel each other out--but rather by matchups and the ability to execute under pressure.

The 2000 Baltimore Ravens won the franchise's first and only Super Bowl with a dominant defense supplemented by just enough timely scoring: their blueprint was to hold opposing teams to fewer than two touchdowns (they gave up a league-best 10.3 ppg during the regular season and an astonishing 5.8 ppg in four postseason games) and then figure out how to muster up at least 14 points from the offense and special teams (and, occasionally, the defense). The 2012 Ravens score 4.1 ppg more than the 2000 Ravens did and they allow their opponents to score 11.2 ppg more than the 2000 Ravens did; the 2012 Ravens gave up 19 ppg in their three playoff wins prior to the Super Bowl but they scored 30 ppg. Quarterback Joe Flacco may be the best long ball passer in the league, so the 2012 Ravens can threaten the entire field and thus spread the defense out to pave the way for the Ray Rice-led rushing attack.

The San Francisco 49ers were established as the early favorite and even though the initial line has tightened a bit the oddsmakers still lean toward the NFC Champion. Second year quarterback Colin Kaepernick became a starter when Alex Smith suffered a concussion and Kaepernick kept the job by proving that he could provide a big play dynamic that Smith lacks; Kaepernick initially made his name as a runner but he also has a strong arm and he reads defenses surprisingly well considering his lack of NFL experience. The 49ers are a big, physical team on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in rushing--the hallmark of a physical offensive team--and second in points allowed. Kaepernick shredded the Green Bay Packers with 181 yards rushing (setting the NFL single game record for rushing yards by a quarterback in the regular season or playoffs) in a 45-31 Divisional Round playoff win and then he picked apart the Atlanta Falcons with 16-21 passing for 233 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in a 28-24 NFC Championship Game win.

The biggest key to the Super Bowl will be whether or not the Ravens can contain the running game featuring Frank Gore, LaMichael James and Kaepernick without getting gashed by Kaepernick's precision passing. My rooting interest in this game is well-documented--my heart does not want to see Ray Lewis lead Art Modell's former team to victory--but that does not affect my ability to objectively analyze this contest: I would pick the Ravens if I thought that they were the better team but, even though they may be able to match the 49ers' physicality, the Super Bowl will be decided by two or three explosive offensive plays created by the hands and/or feet of Kaepernick. San Francisco will win, 31-21.