"There's a Gleam": Appreciating Marty Schottenheimer

Coach Marty Schottenheimer, who passed away on February 8 at the age of 77, famously told his players, "There's a gleam." He never explained what he meant, yet we all understood: in every life there are moments of hope/moments of opportunity, and we have to make the most of those moments. 

Schottenheimer's first moment of opportunity to be a head coach--after a five year AFL career during which he played linebacker on a championship team as a rookie (1965 Buffalo Bills), and after a decade as an assistant coach--came with the Cleveland Browns in the middle of the 1984 season. He took over a floundering 1-7 squad and led the team to a 4-4 record down the stretch. Next season, the Browns went 8-8, won their first division title since 1980, and took a 21-3 lead in the Divisional Round playoff game versus the defending AFC champion Miami Dolphins before losing 24-21. The start of Schottenheimer's career in Cleveland foreshadowed how the rest of his career would go: Schottenheimer could turn teams around quickly and produce regular season success, but his teams not only usually lost in the playoffs but they often lost in heartbreaking fashion.

That 1985 loss to the favored Dolphins, even after blowing an 18 point lead, felt less like heartbreak at the time and more like the start of something big. The Browns' rookie quarterback Bernie Kosar would soon emerge as one of the league's top passers, and the Browns advanced to the AFC Championship in each of the next two seasons.

Schotteneheimer led the Browns to a 12-4 record in 1986, setting a franchise NFL record for single season wins that still stands (the Browns had three straight seasons with at least 12 wins from 1946-48 in the All-America Football Conference prior to joining the NFL in 1950). The Browns led the Denver Broncos 20-13 at home late in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship before John Elway orchestrated what will forever be known as "The Drive," a 98 yard march down the field culminating in a five yard touchdown pass to Mark Jackson. The Broncos won in overtime, and advanced to the Super Bowl.

In 1987, the Browns went 10-5 in the strike-shortened season, won the division title, routed the Indianapolis Colts 38-21, and headed to Denver for the AFC Championship with redemption on their minds. Instead, the Browns suffered heartbreak again, as Earnest Byner fumbled just before entering the endzone for what would have been the game-tying touchdown.

The Browns overcame adversity in 1988 to claim a Wild Card berth with a 10-6 record before losing 24-23 to division rival Houston in the Wild Card game. After the season, Schottenheimer and Browns owner Art Modell announced that by mutual consent they had decided that Schottenheimer would not return.

Schottenheimer did not remain unemployed for long. The Kansas City Chiefs hired him prior to the 1989 season. The Chiefs went 8-7-1 that season but then made six straight playoff appearances after making the playoffs just once since 1971. Schottenheimer led the Chiefs to the postseason seven times in 10 seasons--including a pair of 13 win campaigns--but they only advanced to the AFC Championship once. Schottenheimer resigned after the team went 7-9 in 1998, the first losing season in his career. 

He returned to the sideline in 2001 with the Washington Redskins, but despite leading the team to eight wins in the final 11 games after an 0-5 start he was fired by Dan Snyder.

Schottenheimer finished his NFL coaching career in San Diego, where he experienced both the worst regular season of his career (4-12 in 2003) and the best regular season of his career (14-2 in 2006). The Chargers fired Schottenheimer after an internal power struggle following that 14-2 season, and he never coached in the NFL again, though he did win his only professional championship as a head coach in 2012 with the Virginia Destroyers of the United Football League (UFL).

Schottenheimer's Cleveland tenure lasted less than five years at the start of a long and distinguished coaching career, but I will always think of him as a Cleveland Brown. The Browns' run of success under Schottenheimer happened during my adolescence and has not been matched since. That was a fun, if sometimes heartbreaking, time to be a Browns fan. There have been precious few fun times as a Browns fan since that era, and more than 30 years later we Browns fans are still waiting to see back to back playoff appearances (maybe next year!).

Schottenheimer ranks eighth in NFL history in regular season wins (200). The seven coaches ahead of him are either already in the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Don Shula, George Halas, Tom Landry, Curly Lambeau, and Paul Brown) or mortal locks to be inducted as soon as they are eligible (Bill Belichick, Andy Reid).

Hall of Fame coaches who have fewer regular season wins than Schottenheimer include Chuck Noll (193), Bill Parcells (172), Bud Grant (158), Joe Gibbs (154), Steve Owen (153), Bill Cowher (149), Marv Levy (143), Tony Dungy (139), Hank Stram (131), and Weeb Ewbank (130). 

Of course, the Hall of Famers listed above with fewer regular season wins than Schottenheimer each made at least one appearance in the NFL Championship and/or Super Bowl, and--except for Grant and Levy--each won at least one NFL Championship or one Super Bowl. For that matter, each of the coaches ahead of Schottenheimer on the regular season wins list won at least one Super Bowl or NFL Championship, and Reid is the only member of that group who does not have at least two titles.

Schottenheimer ranks just 33rd in playoff wins (5), and he has the worst winning percentage (.278; 5-13 record) among NFL coaches who won at least five playoff games. He has the fourth most playoff losses all-time, but the three coaches who have more losses each had winning records and each won at least one title: Don Shula went 19-17 in the playoffs with two Super Bowl titles, Tom Landry went 20-16 in the playoffs with two Super Bowl titles, and Andy Reid has a 17-15 playoff record with one Super Bowl title.

It is too late for the Hall of Fame to honor Schottenheimer when he could have appreciated it, but there is no rule against posthumous induction. Is he a worthy candidate? If he had won just one Super Bowl he likely would have waltzed into the Hall of Fame a long time ago. Without a championship on his resume, there are lingering questions. Was there something about so-called "Martyball" that was better suited to regular season play than postseason play? Or, did Schottenheimer lift his teams farther than they otherwise would have gone? Is it reasonable to say that he "should" have taken at least one of those teams all the way? 

Schottenheimer's best regular season team, the 14-2 Chargers, lost to the team of the decade--the New England Patriots--in the playoffs. His 1997 Chiefs went 13-3 but lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. Schottenheimer's two best Browns teams lost close AFC Championship games to Elway's Broncos. Individually, those losses are understandable, but one could also argue that a Hall of Fame coach should have found a way to not come up short in every single one of those contests. 

There are playoff losses that are less understandable, including when his 1995 Chiefs--a 13-3 squad with home field advantage--lost in the Wild Card game to the 9-7 Indianapolis Colts.  

It is difficult to put Schottenheimer at the absolute top level with the coaches who won multiple titles, including (in chronological order) Paul Brown, Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Walsh, Jimmy Johnson, and Bill Belichick--but the Hall of Fame has welcomed coaches who won much less often than Schottenheimer did, and several of those coaches did not win titles. The consistent pattern with Schottenheimer--across more than 20 years and four teams--is that his teams became better after his arrival, and got worse after he departed, which suggests that he maximized or at least came reasonably close to maximizing those teams' potential.

Marty Schottenheimer is a Hall of Famer in my book. Rest in peace, Coach Schottenheimer, and thank you for reminding us all to never stop seeking the "gleam."

Cleveland Browns: "We're Not the Worst NFL Team Ever"

Fans like to declare "We're Number One" but in the aftermath of the Cleveland Browns' 20-17 victory over the San Diego Chargers all that Browns fans can honestly say is "We're Not the Worst NFL Team Ever." The Browns started this season 0-14--and had lost a franchise-record 17 straight games prior to beating the Chargers--but the dubious distinction of worst NFL team ever probably still belongs to the 1976-77 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that went 0-14 in the franchise's first year and then lost the first 12 games in the franchise's second year; those 26 straight losses are an NFL record that ranks among the sports records least likely to be broken (just think about how awful this Browns team is and then realize that they would have had to lose more than another half season's worth of games to match the Buccaneers' epic futility). Or, perhaps the 2008 Detroit Lions merit consideration, as they remain the only NFL team to lose every game in a season since the league expanded the schedule to 16 games in 1978. In any case, the 2016 Browns have elevated themselves out of that conversation, because one win is infinitely more than zero wins.

Browns versus Chargers was one of the most exciting Browns games I have ever watched, but the excitement was perverse, not joyous--kind of like watching a train wreck unfold in slow motion. Until the clock hit triple zeroes, I had no idea what would happen. Even as Josh Lambo's game-tying field goal attempt sailed wide right as time expired, I still was not convinced that the Browns had won; I first had to make sure that no Brown had thrown a helmet in celebration or jumped offsides or called timeout to ice the kicker or committed some other folly that I cannot even imagine or conceive.

It felt strange to become so emotionally invested in the possibility that an awful team might hang on to beat a pretty bad team but being a sports fan sometimes involves suspension of disbelief or logic. Let's be honest: the Browns did not win because they had a great game plan or because they played so well; the Browns won mainly because they were playing a sorry team featuring lame duck Coach Mike McCoy. San Diego's Philip Rivers is a talented quarterback but this season he is the most intercepted passer in the league and after he executed a crisp touchdown drive on the first series of the game he did not do much of note the rest of the way. His Cleveland counterpart, Robert Griffin III, is a marvelously talented athlete who cannot stay healthy or consistently throw the football accurately, two attributes that are rather important for long term success as an NFL quarterback. This was a typical Griffin performance: he ran well, played with heart/determination--and did not finish the game due to injury (he has now been entered into the NFL's concussion protocol and I hope that he is OK not just in a football sense but also as a human being).

Trailing by three points with less than two minutes remaining in the game, the Chargers raced downfield into field goal range with no timeouts because the Browns refused to double cover tight end Antonio Gates, San Diego's most dangerous offensive weapon. The Browns are the anti-New England Patriots; Patriot Coach Bill Belichick identifies the opposing team's best weapon and comes up with a plan to neutralize that weapon but Gates had eight catches for 94 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. After the game, the CBS studio crew (most notably Bill Cowher) gave credit to Browns Coach Hue Jackson because he is an upbeat person who supposedly inspired the Browns to play hard. Look, most of the Browns players are paid more money for one game than the average U.S. citizen earns in an entire calendar year; playing hard is the least that these players can do--not to mention the old cliche "the eye in the sky don't lie": everything a player does is filmed and the habits and techniques that a player demonstrates on film will go a long way toward determining whether or not that player has an NFL job next season.

A well coached team is disciplined and the players are always in the right position, even if the players lack the size, strength and/or speed to complete the play; the 2016 Browns are not just a bad team but they are a team that demonstrably lacks discipline and does not execute properly. CBS color commentator Solomon Wilcots repeatedly pointed out that the Browns should be double-teaming Gates. The coach is responsible for the product on the field; if Jackson is giving the right instructions but the players are not executing then he needs to put different players on the field: the bottom line is that whatever happens on the field has either been taught by the coach or is being permitted to happen by the coach. Remember Mike Singletary's rant about how he would rather play 10 on 11 than put a player on the field who does not buy into the game plan? A lot of people made fun of the way that Singletary delivered that message but his underlying thought process was right on the money.

Speaking of cultivating the right mentality, it should be noted that the problem with the Browns starts at the top and predates Jackson joining the team. Case in point: I did not catch this during the telecast, but apparently the Browns played Kool & the Gang's "Celebration" after the game. I am a lifelong Browns fan. I am happy when my team wins and I am disappointed when my team loses. I hate to quote Mike Tomlin, the coach of the hated Pittsburgh Steelers, but I love the attitude behind his oft-repeated statement, "The standard is the standard." Tomlin's Steelers expect to win any time, any place, regardless of injuries or circumstances. The Steelers are not going to play "Celebration" after one win against a bad team during a season that will not end in a playoff berth, let alone a Super Bowl title (that is the standard that the Steelers set for every season).

I would say that after a regular season victory the Browns should act like they have done this before but the problem is, the 2016 Browns had not done this before. The ownership group, front office and coaching staff have plunged a once-proud franchise to the lowest point in its long history--but they won one game and avoided being considered the worst team ever. "Celebration," indeed.

The Browns face the Steelers next week. As Wilcots noted, the Browns have no realistic chance to win that game. This is just not right. Browns-Steelers is supposed to be a rivalry game, not a stepping-stone for the Steelers to possibly improve their playoff position.

I am happy that the Browns won; it sure is better than the alternative--but Browns fans will really celebrate when they believe that they have the right owner, front office, coaching staff and quarterback to be successful in the long run and when Browns-Steelers is a competitive contest, not a foregone conclusion to punctuate the most forgettable and lamentable season in Browns' history.

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

This year's Wild Card Weekend was a bit odd, as the road teams were favored in all four contests. After looking carefully at each matchup, I decided that there were good reasons that the home teams were underdogs but when the dust cleared two of those home teams won, so I only correctly picked the outcome of two of the four Wild Card Weekend games. However, the only result that really surprised me was San Diego beating Indianapolis; even though the Chargers have played the Colts very tough in recent years, the Chargers were a banged up 8-8 team while the Colts were the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch and featured the league MVP, Peyton Manning. I had Atlanta squeaking by Arizona 27-24 but acknowledged that the Cardinals had a "puncher's chance if Warner puts a lot of points on the board and avoids committing costly turnovers" and that was exactly what happened in a 30-24 Cardinals win. I knew that Baltimore and Philadelphia would prove to be superior to Miami and Minnesota respectively.

Perhaps the most intriguing thing about the four Divisional Playoff games is that they are all rematches of 2008 regular season contests. Here are my predictions:

Saturday's games:

The 12-5 Wild Card Baltimore Ravens visit the 13-3 AFC South Champion Tennessee Titans.

On paper, Tennessee and Baltimore are about as evenly matched as possible. The Titans posted the best regular season record in the NFL this season but these teams tied for the best point differential (8.8 ppg). The Titans won the regular season matchup 13-10 at Baltimore but the Ravens have won four of their previous seven games versus Tennessee. Both teams have bruising running attacks and fierce defenses.

The Titans are a bit banged up on both the offensive and defensive lines; Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are expected to play but center Kevin Mawae's status is less certain and that could obviously have a major impact on Tennessee in both the running game and the passing game.

The Ravens are coming off of a convincing win against a hot Dolphins team but they have to play on the road against a well rested division champion. The key factor will be that Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins must avoid throwing costly interceptions (hint: be aware of where Ed Reed is and do not throw the football anywhere near him).

Tennessee will win, 24-13.

The 10-7 NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals visit the 12-4 NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers.

Arizona looked terrible in the last few weeks of the regular season but surprised a lot of people by beating Atlanta in the Wild Card game. Still, the Cardinals had a negative point differential during the season, went 0-5 in the Eastern time zone and have lost five of their last seven games to Carolina, including a 27-23 road loss this season. Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns in that game but the Panthers did not lose at home this season and are not likely to do so versus Arizona.

Carolina will win, 31-17.

Sunday's games:

The 10-6-1 Wild Card Philadelphia Eagles visit the 12-4 NFC East Champion New York Giants.

These division rivals split their 2008 games, with the Giants winning 36-31 at Philadelphia before losing 20-14 at home. The Eagles have won 10 of the previous 17 meetings overall and the Giants have not been quite the same since losing the services of troubled wide receiver Plaxico Burress. Despite New York's superior record, the two teams had virtually identical point differentials. The winner will be the team that is more physical, does a better job of establishing a running game and is able to avoid costly mistakes. New York is the defending Super Bowl champion, a team that made their title run by putting together a record setting road winning streak. They are well rested and I don't think that they will lose to a talented but inconsistent Philadelphia squad.

New York will win, 24-10

The 9-8 Wild Card San Diego Chargers visit the 12-4 AFC North Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10 this season but that score is very deceptive; the referees erroneously nullified a late Pittsburgh TD, the Steelers outgained San Diego 410 yards to 213 and Ben Roethlisberger completely outplayed Philip Rivers, posting a 96.4 passer rating compared to a season-low 44.4 rating for Rivers. The fact that San Diego has beaten Pittsburgh in both of their playoff matchups is meaningless trivia, because those games took place in 1982 and 1994. The only negative for Pittsburgh going into this game is that Roethlisberger suffered a concussion in the season finale versus Cleveland. Assuming that he is not bothered by any aftereffects from that injury, Pittsburgh should dominate this game.

Pittsburgh will win, 27-7

Monday Night Football Quick Hits: Brett Favre is Not the Messiah Edition

Just to make things a little more interesting, the San Diego Chargers spotted the New York Jets seven points on Monday night--and then the Chargers cruised to a 48-29 victory that was even more of a rout than that score suggests; the Chargers led 38-14 after three quarters before the Jets tacked on some meaningless points against a prevent defense in the final stanza. The Jets' only points in the first 36 minutes came on David Barrett's 25 yard interception return for a touchdown to end San Diego's first possession of the game and Laveranues Coles' three yard touchdown reception after a 94 yard Leon Washington kickoff return. In other words, the Jets' offense failed to generate even one sustained scoring drive until the fourth quarter.

Although his bad pass gave the Jets an early lead after Barrett's interception return, Philip Rivers had a masterful overall performance (19-25, 250 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, 130.0 passer rating). He spread the ball around to eight different targets, none of whom caught more than four passes. LaDainian Tomlinson scored his first two touchdowns of the season but only rushed for 67 yards on 26 carries (2.6 yards per attempt average), so Rivers really did shoulder the primary offensive burden. Brett Favre may have been the headline story coming into this game but Rivers was easily the best quarterback on the field.

Favre's numbers may have come out OK in the end (30-42, 271 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, 92.5 passer rating) but, to borrow an old Mike Holmgren line from early in Favre's career, when the outcome was in doubt Favre was "all over the joint" with the football; he not only had the two interceptions but he threw two other sure interceptions that were dropped and he had several other wildly inaccurate passes. In the first three quarters, Favre had one touchdown, two interceptions and a 64.3 passer rating. As I've said all along, Favre will throw the ball up for grabs and it will not always end as happily for the Jets as it did in week one, particularly against the league's better teams. Favre is gutsy and durable and he still has the big arm but--like any other quarterback--he looks better when he has more talent around him. People seem to be forgetting how much other talent there was (and is) in Green Bay; the Packers' success last year was not just all about Favre, even though he did have a great season (his first one since 2004, something else that many people seem to have forgotten). The Jets were 4-12 last year and although they upgraded their talent on paper this offseason I still do not understand why the late signing of Favre convinced so many people that the Jets are really going places this year. The reality is that if everything breaks right for New York maybe they could go 9-7 and grab the last Wild Card berth but everything rarely goes right in the course of a 16 game season and I just don't believe that this is a playoff bound team.

It is either arrogant or incredibly naive to think that Favre can spend the summer throwing a few passes on a high school football field and then come in and run an NFL offense that he has never seen before. Actually, that is also an insult to NFL players and coaches who worked throughout the entire offseason in order to properly prepare for the 2008 campaign.

Before the season began, ESPN's Tom Jackson said repeatedly that quarterbacks travel to Hawaii and prepare for the Pro Bowl in just a few days so it will not take Favre very long to learn the Jets' system. To borrow one of Jackson's pet lines, "Really?" In the Pro Bowl, the defenders basically have to count "steamboats" before they rush the passer, exotic defenses are forbidden by rule and everyone is just trying to look good and not get hurt; there is absolutely no sensible, logical comparison between learning a simplified, Pro Bowl offense and learning a full offensive playbook that a team uses over the course of a 16 game season.

Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young has a much more accurate and nuanced take. He correctly predicted that the Chargers would blow out the Jets--I love how he is one of the few ESPN commentators who never buys the hype or tries to falsely build up a matchup--and he said that it will be a 10 week process for Favre to really learn the Jets' offense. Emmitt Smith then quite logically asked if the Jets brought in the wrong guy. Young replied, "I think they got the right guy; they just got him a month too late. The thing dragged on and I think they wanted to get him in early August or late July so that they could have that time before the real bullets flew."

Stuart Scott asked Young about all the plays in which Favre threw passes to areas of the field where there were only Charger defenders. How much of that was Favre's fault and how much of that was the receivers' fault? Young literally winced at the phrasing of the question before answering, "It's not a 'fault.' Football is glorified choreography. At the end of the day, it's dance steps and the more you do it, the better you are going to be at it. When you can do it for five, six, seven years like the Chargers have with this group of people then you are going to see that kind of play. When you have been doing it for four or five weeks, it shows up. It's not about fault; it's about time together to get the dance steps down."

The problem for the Jets and Favre is that by the time he really knows the Jets' system the team will be 5-5 at best and need to make a strong closing run just to make the playoffs. So there is some logic to Smith's question, because if the Jets are not going anywhere this year--and they're not--was it worth it to bring Favre in for a season or two as opposed to sticking with Chad Pennington or finding out what their younger QBs can do? Essentially, the Packers faced the same question--albeit with an overall roster that is much better than New York's--and they decided that the train had left the station without Favre. The Packers are 2-1 and I seriously doubt that they have any regrets. Imagine for a moment that the Packers are 1-2 and the Jets are 2-1; do you think that the media would make half as many allowances for Aaron Rodgers that they are for Favre? I'm not referring to Young, because he is quite accurately saying that Favre is not playing great and explaining why this is the case; I'm referring to everyone who blasted the Packers for getting rid of Favre and going with Aaron Rodgers: where are all the critics now? It has been nice to hear Cris Carter and Tom Jackson acknowledge how well Rodgers has played so far, because those guys were so certain not even a month ago that Rodgers faced more pressure than any quarterback ever and that Favre was just going to tear up the league starting in week one. Nevertheless, Jackson and Carter are still guilty of overstating what Favre can do; they kept insisting all week that the Jets should not have run the ball three straight times in the red zone last week versus New England and that Favre should have been given the opportunity to throw the ball. The Jets' offense was much more wide open this week but this did not lead to more scoring until garbage time--unless you count the points off of turnovers that Favre provided for the Chargers. We are seeing that maybe New York Coach Eric Mangini had good reasons to not have Favre chucking the ball all over the place inside the five yard line; if you can't run the ball into the endzone in that situation then your team is not going very far, anyway.

It would just be refreshing to see analysts--in all sports--simply report what their eyes are actually seeing instead of saying what their hearts hope to be true. Right now, too many sports analysts base their commentary on who they personally like and dislike as opposed to objectively talking about who is productive and not productive.

The reality is that Packers' management knew what it was doing, while the Jets' management decided to make a deal that created a lot of hype but will ultimately result in no playoff wins before the next quarterback takes over for Favre. Every "expert" who blasted the Packers and praised Favre should now be just as loudly praising Rodgers, apologizing to the Packers and correctly noting that Favre has hardly turned the Jets around. Tony Kornheiser spent all offseason drooling all over Favre but as everything fell apart around Favre on Monday night all Kornheiser could manage was a muted acknowledgment that Favre did not play well. Again, as Jackson would say, "Really?"

Here are some notes/comments about Sunday's action:

Obviously, the headline grabber from this weekend was Miami's 38-13 win over New England, reviving the storylines about how good the Patriots can be without Tom Brady and whether the remainder of this season is some kind of referendum on how good of a coach Bill Belichick is. Taking the latter point first, that is one of the stupidest discussion topics ever thought up by the mainstream sports media--and that's really saying something. As CBS' Phil Simms correctly and succinctly noted during last week's New England-New York Jets game, we found out a long time ago that Belichick is a great coach. As for the Brady question, it is certainly legitimate to wonder what the future holds for the Patriots with Matt Cassel at the helm but it is still way to soon to answer that question. Keep in mind that this loss ended an NFL record 21 game regular season winning streak by the Patriots and that their previous regular season defeat was a 21-0 decision to the Dolphins on December 10, 2006 during which Brady was 12-25 for 78 yards. For several years, the Patriots have struggled versus Miami and until Cassel plays a few more games we won't know for sure if this loss was just part of that trend or an indicator of something else. By the way, that 2006 New England team finished with a 12-4 record and made it to the AFC Championship Game. My prediction is that after this upcoming bye week the Patriots will go on an extended run--six wins in the next eight games or something on that order--that will lift them back into first place in the AFC East.

"My message today was...it ended up being really the power of the will," New York Giants Coach Tom Coughlin said after his team defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 26-23 in overtime. Some would say that the Bengals should derive hope from playing such a close game against the reigning Super Bowl champions or that this performance gives the Bengals a leg up going into next week's game against in-state, in-division rival Cleveland--but I disagree. Maybe if the Bengals were a young, rising team then they could bask in moral victories but this is a franchise that has made one playoff appearance during the Marvin Lewis era and has been rapidly staggering backwards ever since. The talent is there--certainly on the offensive side of the ball--but the discipline and focus is not. In other words, we know that this team is talented enough to challenge even the Giants and we also know that the Bengals are just as capable of looking sloppy and disinterested next week. More than likely, they will respond to this loss the typical way that losers respond: the closeness of the score will make them overconfident; a champion would respond by analyzing the mental errors and physical shortcomings that led to the defeat.

Dallas improved to 3-0 with a 27-16 win over Green Bay at Lambeau Field, the Cowboys' first victory at one of the sport's most revered venues. Marion Barber banged out 142 yards and one touchdown on 28 carries, while little-used Miles Austin was the surprise receiving star with two catches for 115 yards, including a 52 yard touchdown. Terrell Owens finished with just two receptions for 17 yards but he made two plays that showed off his speed: first, after Tony Romo (17-30, 260 yards, one touchdown, one interception) threw an interception in the endzone and Owens was blocked to the ground inside the 10 yard line, Owens got up and incredibly ran down Nick Collins and tackled him at the Dallas 43 yard line; later, when rookie speedster running back Felix Jones raced for a 60 yard touchdown, Owens caught up to him and matched him stride for stride as a blocking escort, preventing would-be tacklers who had the angle from cutting Jones off before he reached pay dirt.

After the game, Austin said of Owens, "Him having two catches, 17 yards doesn't explain what he did. He's attracting double coverage, triple coverage all the time. So for him to do that, it's almost bigger than him making the play." Just like in the second half of last week's game versus the Eagles, when Philadelphia shifted its coverage to Owens and opened up opportunities for Barber and Jason Witten, Owens had a major impact just by being on the field. He certainly can make catches even against double teams and in some games this year it may be necessary for him to do that but for now Romo is making the smart, high percentage play by attacking opposing defenses in their soft spots and giving other players chances to prove that they can make plays.

Although the Packers fell to 2-1, quarterback Aaron Rodgers was very solid: 22-39, 290 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions.

Question of the Week: "I always think that when I eat cottage cheese: How did the first guy who made this know when to quit?"--John Madden (during Dallas' 27-16 Sunday Night Football win over Green Bay).

2008 NFL Preview

The introduction to my 2007 NFL Preview so precisely summarizes the perils of NFL prognosticating that I am simply going to reproduce it here word for word:

There are several reasons that it is not uncommon to see NFL teams go from worst to first (or first to worst) in one season: (1) football is a violent game and one injury to a key player (particularly a star quarterback) can change the balance of power in a division; (2) the season is very short, so one NFL game carries the same impact in the standings as five NBA games or 10 MLB games; (3) games frequently come down to the last two minutes, so the difference between being 10-6 and 6-10 may literally be a few plays spread out over four games. The foregoing explains why Las Vegas has enough money to build bigger and bigger casinos and why it is silly to pretend to predict the exact records that each NFL team will compile during a season--it is tough enough just to figure out who will make the playoffs.

Last year I correctly picked six of the eight division champions. On the other hand, all four of my Wild Card predictions were wrong.

Without further ado, here are my 2008 NFL predictions.

AFC East

1) New England
2) Buffalo
3) New York Jets
4) Miami

Quick Hits:

* You may have heard that the Jets have a new quarterback--some guy named Favre. What no one seems to be paying much attention to is that the Dolphins also have a new quarterback--Chad Pennington, who used to be the Jets' quarterback. A lot of people rag on Pennington's arm strength but he is the NFL's career completion percentage leader and just two years ago he started all 16 games as the Jets went 10-6 and made it to the playoffs. Won't ESPN and the rest of the mainstream media circus have a fit if Pennington has a better season than Favre? If Pennington stays healthy--granted, a big if--don't be surprised if he does just that.

* New England fans have every right to be concerned about Tom Brady's health but assuming that he is functional by the time the regular season starts the Patriots will once again win the division title and be a legit Super Bowl contender. Their overall winning streak was stopped by the Giants in Super Bowl XLII but the Patriots have won 19 consecutive regular season games dating back to 2006 and they have won 22 of their last 23 regular season games. They open the 2008 regular season with games versus the Chiefs, Jets and Dolphins, a bye week, a trip to San Francisco and then a visit to San Diego.

* It's put up or shut up time for the Dick Jauron regime in Buffalo after a pair of 7-9 seasons. The Bills have not made the playoffs since 1999. Call it the Doug Flutie curse: in 1999, Flutie led the Bills to a 10-5 record, Wade Phillips "rested" him in favor of Rob Johnson in game 16 and then Phillips started Johnson in the playoff game versus the Titans. Johnson went 10-22 for 131 yards, Tennessee won courtesy of "The Music City Miracle" and the Bills have never been the same.

AFC West

1) San Diego
2) Denver
3) Kansas City
4) Oakland

Quick Hits:

* The Chargers are the class of this division but it remains to be seen how much Shawne Merriman's knee injury will hamper his performance.

* The Broncos have not won a Super Bowl since John Elway retired but Mike Shanahan's teams are usually in the playoff hunt; Denver had a down season last year but figures to contend for a Wild Card berth in 2008.

AFC North

1) Pittsburgh
2) Cleveland
3) Baltimore
4) Cincinnati

Quick Hits:

* Year in and year out the Steelers are the most stable organization in this division on and off the field.

* High hopes in Cleveland have been tempered a bit by a rash of injuries and the reality that the Browns face a very tough schedule loaded with nationally televised games.

* The Ravens are still trying to develop a quality starting quarterback.

* The Bengals are an organization that is in disarray on and off the field.

AFC South

1) Jacksonville
2) Indianapolis (Wild Card)
3) Tennessee (Wild Card)
4) Houston

Quick Hits:

* Peyton Manning will not likely be completely healthy by the start of the season and 36 year old Marvin Harrison is coming off of an injury-riddled campaign, so look for the Jaguars to finally break through and win the division title. That said, if the Colts get completely healthy by playoff time they could very well go farther in the postseason than the Jaguars do.

* The Texans are improving but they are in a killer division, so it will be very difficult for them to make the playoffs unless injuries take down at least one of the teams in front of them.

AFC Championship:

New England will not go 16-0 again--14-2 sounds about right--but the Patriots will host the AFC Championship Game and beat the San Diego Chargers.

NFC East

1) Dallas
2) Philadelphia (Wild Card)
3) New York Giants (Wild Card)
4) Washington

Quick Hits:

* No Osi Umenyiora and no Michael Strahan means no Super Bowl repeat for the Giants. They were a Wild Card team in 2007 and they will struggle to earn a Wild Card in 2008.

* Some teams have to go through a bit of heartbreak before they reach the top. The Cowboys are very talented and after a great 2007 regular season they came up just short against the eventual Super Bowl champions.

* If Donovan McNabb stays healthy then the Eagles should be good enough to challenge for the division title.

* The Redskins will probably have a solid record but it is their misfortune to be in such a highly competitive division.

NFC West

1) Seattle
2) Arizona
3) San Francisco
4) St. Louis

Quick Hits:

* In recent years this division has emerged as the poster child for mediocrity. That said, Seattle has been the one bright spot and the Seahawks have enough weapons to be a Super Bowl contender.

* If Kurt Warner stays healthy then the Cardinals could challenge for a Wild Card berth.

NFC North

1) Green Bay
2) Minnesota
3) Detroit
4) Chicago

Quick Hits:

* The race between Green Bay and Minnesota for the division title will be fierce, because the second place team may not make the playoffs.

* If Detroit's defense improves then the Lions could be a dark horse contender for the division title.


NFC South:

1) Tampa Bay
2) New Orleans
3) Carolina
4) Atlanta

Quick Hits:

* Jeff Garcia is a perennially underrated quarterback and the Buccaneers are putting together a good defense, so look for Tampa Bay to have a strong season.

* New Orleans and Carolina will bounce back from their disappointing 2007 seasons but they will not quite be good enough to keep up with Tampa Bay.

NFC Championship:

Dallas will defeat Tampa Bay.

Super Bowl:

New England will defeat Dallas.

Monday Night Football Quick Hits

Darren Sproles did his best LaDainian Tomlinson imitation, rushing 13 times for 102 yards and one touchdown as San Diego edged Seattle 18-17 in the Monday Night Football preseason finale. Here are some quick hits about the game/telecast:

1) Before he became a TV celebrity, Tony Kornheiser was one of my favorite sportswriters. He used to craft in depth, insightful articles for a variety of publications, including Inside Sports, a now-defunct magazine that at one time featured a lot of very high quality writing. Kornheiser was not in the MNF booth this week due to his recent hernia surgery and, while I wish him a speedy and full recovery, it must be said that I did not miss him during this telecast. Kornheiser's MNF role--whether by his own choosing or the decisions of the director and producer--consists of making pop culture references and allegedly supplying historical context but in reality simply narrating over a montage of pop culture images at the beginning of the telecast. I much prefer to hear Ron Jaworski explaining exactly what is happening during the game; Jaworski is a true student--and teacher--of the game. If I wanted pop culture references or one liners then I would tune in to Comedy Central. Kornheiser is smart, funny and talented, just like Dennis Miller--but I don't want to see or hear either of them in the MNF announcers' booth.

2) Stat of the night: Most yards from scrimmage per game, NFL history (min. 100 games played): LaDainian Tomlinson, 126.4 ypg; Jim Brown, 125.5 ypg; Barry Sanders, 118.9 ypg.

3) When Michele Tafoya asked San Diego defensive end Luis Castillo about the possibility that Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman might miss the entire season, Castillo's response hit the perfect note: Castillo clearly stated that Merriman is a great player who will be sorely missed but Castillo also expressed confidence that Merriman's substitute, Jyles Tucker, will perform well. I immediately thought back to the 2004 season when then-Eagles wide receiver Terrell Owens suffered a devastating injury--a sprained ankle combined with a broken fibula--less than two months before the Super Bowl. When Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb was asked how the Eagles would do without Owens, he blithely replied that the Eagles had already made it to three straight NFC Championship Games without Owens. Even though that was an accurate statement, it was the wrong thing to say and the wrong way to say it; unlike Castillo, McNabb failed to find the delicate balance between praising the injured star's importance while also displaying confidence in the abilities of his backup. McNabb's flub understandably rubbed the sensitive Owens the wrong way and set the stage for the deterioration of the McNabb-Owens relationship.

4) Jaworski noted several times that Seattle quarterback Charlie Frye (19-29, 219 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions) made "stick" (i.e., accurate delivery into a tight space) throws and manipulated the defensive coverage with his eyes. Last season in Cleveland, Frye became the first NFL quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger to start week one and then get traded prior to week two. Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren is a noted quarterback guru, so it will be interesting to see how Frye develops in Seattle. Maybe this was just a one game, preseason fluke, but Frye was not converting lucky plays: the abilities to read coverages and make "stick" throws are things that should stand him in good stead for the rest of his career. I wonder how much of Frye's growth is just a result of a natural maturation process and how much of it has been accelerated by the coaching that he is receiving. Granted, Derek Anderson became a Pro Bowl quarterback in Cleveland after Frye's departure, but Anderson's success was based more on arm strength and derring-do than "stick" throws or manipulating coverages; in fact, touch and reading defenses seem to be Anderson's weaknesses, as evidenced by his completion percentage and interception rate. Did Frye fail in Cleveland because he was simply thrown into the fire too soon or because he never received the proper coaching to develop his talent?

Patriots Are One Win Away From Immortality

The New England Patriots did not play their best game but they held off the resilient San Diego Chargers to win the AFC Championship, 21-12. San Diego kept the game close even though several of their key offensive players battled injuries; quarterback Philip Rivers (19-37, 211 yards, 0 touchdowns, two interceptions) and tight end Antonio Gates (two receptions for 17 yards) went the whole way but running back LaDainian Tomlinson made only a cameo appearance before his knee injury forced him to be a spectator. Meanwhile, New England quarterback Tom Brady completed 22 of 33 passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns but he also had three interceptions and did not consistently display the pinpoint accuracy that enabled him to set the all-time playoff record for single-game completion percentage against Jacksonville last week. His longest completion went for just 18 yards--and that was Randy Moss' only catch. With their deep passing game stymied, the Patriots turned to their running game and Laurence Maroney delivered, gaining 106 of his 122 yards in the second half. As CBS' Phil Simms noted during the telecast, the Patriots literally have five or six different offenses, so if a team stops one of them then Coach Bill Belichick just switches to another one; few defenses are equipped mentally or physically to deal with everything that the Patriots can do in terms of their different personnel groups, clever play calling and good execution.

Chapter 18 of the Patriots' pursuit of perfection could be titled "All's Well That Ends Well." It certainly did not start off well for the Patriots: they were forced to punt on their first two possessions and Brady threw an interception the third time they had the ball. The Chargers converted that opportunity into a field goal to take an early 3-0 lead. New England answered that score with a 65 yard touchdown drive. The big difference in the game is that the Patriots converted most of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns but the Chargers had to settle for field goals. The Patriots led 14-9 at halftime.

The Chargers intercepted Brady on the Patriots' opening drive in the third quarter but again were only able to convert that opportunity into three points. The Patriots then drove all the way to the San Diego 2 yard line only to come up empty after yet another Brady interception, his first one in the red zone since New England's playoff loss to Denver two years ago. San Diego went three and out after that and the Patriots took a two score lead after an eight play, 67 yard drive resulted in a six yard Brady to Wes Welker touchdown pass. A little over 12 minutes remained in the game but for all intents and purposes it was over because it was obvious that the Chargers could not score a touchdown against the Patriots and there was not enough time left for them to kick enough field goals to overcome a 21-12 deficit (assuming that they could stop New England after each score). The Chargers' next drive stalled at the New England 36 and the Patriots took possession with 9:13 left in the game. Remarkably, San Diego never got the ball back because New England drained all of the remaining time off of the clock, alternating Maroney runs with some key catches by underrated running back Kevin Faulk. The Patriots could have scored more points had they wanted to but instead ended the game with a couple kneeldowns.

The uninitiated may downplay New England's win by citing San Diego's injuries, Brady's subpar statistics or the relative closeness of the final score but this was an impressive victory by a great team: most teams, even the very good ones, have a core set of things that they do well and if they are not able to do those things well then they will lose. For most of this season, the Patriots have featured a wide open, high scoring passing game, they have not run the ball that well and their red zone defense has been sporadic. In the second half against the Chargers, the Patriots changed their game plan and personnel groupings, abandoning the deep passing game in favor of multiple tight end formations out of which they ran the ball and threw short passes. They made some mistakes and Brady was not as accurate as usual but when they did not turn the ball over they scored touchdowns. On defense, the Patriots compensated for the offense's reduced production with great performances in the red zone. Yes, the Chargers were banged up at key positions but they are still a talented team--one that was good enough to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions on their home field last week. Even very good teams sometimes lose when they have off games but that is one of the things that makes this Patriots' team so special: they find a way to win no matter what. They may not always play perfectly but they are one win away from achieving perfection.

What Will Happen On Championship Sunday?

Five of my first six predictions about this year's NFL playoffs were correct but my percentage took a hit on Sunday when a pair of 13-3 favorites lost. It is interesting to see how close I came to getting those games right, too. This is what I wrote about Indianapolis and Dallas respectively: "The Chargers certainly have enough talent to pull off the upset but a late (Peyton) Manning-led drive will give the Colts a 31-28 victory"; "(Terrell) Owens will play, he will limp slightly and Dallas will win, 24-21." Of course, the Colts lost to San Diego 28-24 after a late Manning-led drive faltered, while the Cowboys fell to New York 21-17 after Tony Romo's potential game-winning touchdown pass was intercepted in the endzone. In other words, you could say that I came within perhaps two plays of not only correctly picking those games but getting the exact score right. However, as a former Cowboys coach is fond of saying, you are what your record says you are, so I am 5-3 so far.

As a reward for traveling halfway across the country and beating the defending Super Bowl champions on the road, the bruised and battered Chargers get to venture completely across the country to take on the unblemished, 17-0 New England Patriots. Teams with similar itineraries to the Chargers' generally perform poorly because of the mental/physical fatigue from the extra travel (and the extra game; New England had a first round bye). The Chargers are especially worn down because starting quarterback Philip Rivers and All-Pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson each left the Indianapolis game with injuries and were not able to return. Tomlinson will likely play against New England, but Rivers' status is still uncertain. When the Chargers were at full strength in week two, the Patriots plastered them 38-14 but it is fair to say that San Diego is a much better team now--but not much better than New England. Whether Rivers or backup Billy Volek is under center, the Patriots' defense will be well prepared. The bottom line to beat New England is that you have to score at least 30 points because the Patriots rarely turn the ball over and when they don't turn the ball over they put points on the board.

Like Jacksonville, San Diego may keep things close for a half but New England will pull away and win easily, 37-17

The Dallas Cowboys had the best team in the NFC for most of the season, they beat Green Bay once and defeated the New York Giants twice but after Terrell Owens got hurt we found out just how vital he had been to the team's success. Dallas' offense ground to a complete halt during the six quarters that he missed. When Owens returned to action against the Giants last week, the offense showed some signs of life but breakdowns in pass protection, errant throws by Tony Romo and the fact that Owens clearly was still not 100% combined to doom the Cowboys. Even though Owens was back on the field weeks ahead of schedule, he was still enough of a threat that the Giants double-teamed him on the fateful last play of the game when Romo was intercepted; that illustrates not only how tough it is to cover even a hobbled Owens but also that teams simply do not fear the other Cowboys' players. None of this is meant to take anything away from the Giants, whose nine game road winning streak (including the playoffs) is very impressive. Eli Manning may have had the signature moment of his career versus the Cowboys, putting together some crucial TD drives and showing a lot of poise and composure. That said, it is difficult to believe that a Wild Card team is going to come into Lambeau Field and ruin the storybook season that Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers have put together; it looks like only the Patriots have the coaching, the depth and the focus to make the clock strike midnight for the Cheesehead Cinderallas but we'll talk more about that matchup if it in fact becomes reality. Green Bay could not have gotten off to a worse start against Seattle, with two fumbles leading to a quick 14-0 deficit, but the Packers still won in a blowout.

Green Bay will take an early lead, Eli Manning will throw an interception or two, and the rout will be on as the Packers roll to a 31-10 victory.

Colts Will be Well Rested When They Watch the AFC Championship Game

When the Indianapolis Colts rested most of their starters and lost the regular season finale to the Tennessee Titans, I noted that this strategy had backfired on Colts' Coach Tony Dungy in 2005, when Indianapolis went into rest mode, closing the regular season by losing one game and barely winning another before being upset at home in the playoffs after a bye week. Sure enough, the same thing happened to the Colts this time around as the San Diego Chargers upset the defending Super Bowl champions 28-24 to advance to the AFC Championship Game. How much impact did resting have on the Colts? Their defense gave up more points and more yards versus the Chargers than they did in any of the 16 regular season games; their offense amassed a lot of yards but converted just 3 of 11 third downs, committed three turnovers and did not display much balance, gaining 402 passing yards but just 44 rushing yards. It is not clear whether or not Marvin Harrison was healthy enough to play against the Titans but if he was and the Colts simply rested him for the Chargers game that turned out to be a mistake, too; he fumbled the first time that he touched the ball and was not even on the field during the Colts' final possessions. I don't know if Harrison's subpar performance stemmed simply from rust or if he really is not healthy yet. However, the Colts may have been better served either using him in the Titans game or shutting him down for this year, because he contributed nothing against the Chargers and his fumble deep in Chargers' territory almost certainly took points off of the board.

Above and beyond the statistics, I object to the idea that certain games don't matter. If the Titans game truly did not matter, then the Colts should simply have forfeited it and not paid a game check to any of their players. By the way, a couple things should be clarified about how the Colts-Titans game affected the race between the Titans and the Browns for the final Wild Card berth. It is true that the Colts had no obligation to go out of their way to help either team; the real problem here is that the Colts handled this situation in such an egregious manner--keeping their top players in the game until the precise moment when certain individual statistical milestones were reached and then pulling them out--that they turned a regular season game into a glorified preseason game. That ripped off anyone who bought a ticket--and seems to have had the opposite of the intended effect by also sabotaging their first playoff game. Furthermore, while it is undeniable that the Browns could have earned a playoff berth on their own simply by beating a bad Bengals team the week before, it is also undeniable that the Browns won 10 games by playing against teams that gave their all. The Titans won nine games by playing against teams that gave their all and one game against the Colts' bench players. Rather than watching the Colts mail it in, I would have preferred to see a game between the Browns and the Titans.

The New England Patriots were criticized earlier in the season for allegedly running up the score but their approach is that every time they have the ball they are trying to score and every time the opposing team has the ball they are trying to stop them from scoring. Speaking of the Patriots, in the last week of the season they played the New York Giants in a game that was "meaningless" for both teams in terms of playoff seedings, although the game had obvious historical significance because the Patriots were trying to complete the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history. The Giants played their starters throughout the contest and, even though they lost to the Patriots, they used that performance to build momentum for their current playoff run, which includes road victories against Tampa Bay last week and Dallas on Sunday. While the Colts executed poorly against the Chargers, the Giants had no turnovers against the Cowboys and executed a flawless two minute drill to score an important touchdown just before halftime en route to a 21-17 win. No one can say for sure how much it hurt the Colts to rest players or how much it helped the Giants to fight so valiantly against the Patriots in a "meaningless game"--but it is wrong for a team to think for one minute that certain games don't matter and/or that it is possible to turn off one's focus for one week and then turn it back on for another week.

In the coming days and weeks, you will hear and read a lot of overheated nonsense about the Mexican vacation that Dallas quarterback Tony Romo took during the bye week but the big story of this year's Divisional Playoffs is the vacation that the defending champion Colts took during the final week of the regular season--and perhaps the second biggest story is the vacation that the Giants refused to take during the final week of the regular season.