The NCAA Tournament Provides Drama, but Does it Provide Great Basketball?

The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament (better known as "March Madness") is one of the sports world's most high-profile and beloved events. Passionate fans energetically cheer for their favorite schools (and, it must be noted, passionate fans wager on the outcomes of the games). No one can dispute March Madness' enduring popularity. However, passion and popularity should never be confused with high efficiency and skill set mastery; the notion that college basketball players and teams play a better and/or "purer" form of the game than NBA players and teams do is demonstrably false.

Put more bluntly and concisely, several of the biggest NCAA games of this season were almost unbearable to watch because the level of play was so bad.

Perhaps mismatches are to be expected during the NCAA Tournament's early stages, so this discussion will focus on the Elite Eight, the Final Four, and the Championship Game. If college basketball is a better and/or "purer" form of the game then surely this would be most evident in the most important games of the year featuring the top eight teams in the country.

In the first Elite Eight game of 2022, Villanova defeated Houston, 50-44. As the low score indicates, the pace of this game was painfully slow, bringing back nightmarish memories of the awful pre-shot clock era when stalling was a regularly used strategy; the NBA began using a 24 second shot clock in the 1954-55 season, but the NCAA did not start using a shot clock until the 1985-86 season, when the college game finally limited each possession to 45 seconds (that number was cut to 35 in 1993-94, and then reduced to the current number of 30 in 2015-16). Houston shot 17-57 from the field (.298), including a brutal 1-20 (.005--that is not a typo!) from three point range. Villanova shot even worse from the field (15-52, .288) but compensated by shooting 5-21 (.238) from three point range--which is bad, but not as bad as Houston--and making all 15 of their free throw attempts. Despite the low number of possessions and high number of missed field goals, the teams combined to commit a total of 20 turnovers.

It is true that defense and rebounding have always been essential elements for winning a basketball championship, but when the field goal percentages in a game would not even be good batting averages it is evident that we are not watching great defense as much as we are watching players and teams that are unable to execute basic, fundamental offensive strategies, and are unable to make shots under pressure. NBA defenses are more sophisticated than college defenses, and NBA players are much more athletic, so if Houston and Villanova players cannot make shots under NCAA Tournament conditions then that does not bode well for how those players may perform at the next level.

The second Elite Eight game featured Duke defeating Arkansas, 78-69. Duke played at a high level, with team shooting splits of .547/.400/.889, but this just highlighted how outmatched Arkansas (.419/.300/1.000) was. Duke led by as many as 18 points, and the margin was not closer than 10 points during the final 11 minutes until Arkansas made a layup with :46 remaining, after which neither team scored the rest of the way. Duke is one of college basketball's elite programs of the past four decades, and Arkansas was not competitive for most of the game.

Kansas stomped Miami 76-50 in the third Elite Eight game. Miami kept the score close in the first half before being outscored 47-15 in the second half; it is difficult to imagine that anyone other than a diehard Kansas fan considered the game entertaining, or even watchable: how can a supposedly "elite" college basketball team score just 15 points in 20 minutes? It is not inconceivable that an NBA team, if motivated to do so, could hold a major college basketball team scoreless for 10, 15, or even 20 minutes, because far too many college teams and players simply lack the necessary fundamental skills to make shots against any kind of defensive resistance.

The Elite Eight concluded with North Carolina jumping out to a 9-0 lead versus Saint Peter's, and never looking back en route to a dominating 69-49 win. Saint Peter's shot 7-31 (.226) from the field in the first half, and trailed 47-20 with 15:33 remaining in the second half before "heating up" to only lose by 20 on 18-60 (.300) field goal shooting--and it's not like North Carolina shot the lights out, either, as the Tar Heels finished with shooting splits of .410/.273/.619. How can anyone consider any of these games, or the NCAA Tournament as a whole, to represent great--or even fundamentally sound--basketball?

This analysis is not meant to take anything away from what Saint Peter's accomplished by advancing to the Elite Eight as a small school; the point is about the overall quality of play at the highest levels of college basketball.

The Final Four opened with Kansas beating Villanova, 81-65. Kansas opened the game with a 10-0 run, and pushed the lead to 38-19 before settling for a 40-29 halftime advantage. Kansas shot 15-31 (.484) from the field in the first half, while Villanova shot just 10-29 (.345) from the field. Kansas outscored Villanova 10-5 to take a 50-34 lead early in the second half, but Villanova rallied to cut the margin to 64-58 before Kansas outscored Villanova 11-1 to remove any doubt. Villanova shot 12-28 (.429) from the field in the second half to finish 22-57 (.386) for the game.

The much anticipated second Final Four game featured Duke versus North Carolina. North Carolina ended Coach Mike Krzyzewski's regular season career by beating his Blue Devils 94-81 at Cameron Indoor Stadium, avenging Duke's 87-67 win at North Carolina on February 5--and North Carolina ended Kryzewski's NCAA Tournament career by beating his Blue Devils 81-77. The first half was very competitive, with neither team leading by more than six points, but the offensive execution was sloppy at both ends of the court: North Carolina shot just 12-34 (.353) from the field, while Duke shot 16-37 (.432) from the field as the Blue Devils led 37-34 at halftime. Both teams were awful from three point range in the first half, with North Carolina shooting 3-13 (.231) and Duke shooting 2-12 (.167). The Tar Heels shot 5-6 from three point range at the start of the second half en route to taking a 60-55 lead. Duke kept attacking inside, and used a 10-4 run to go up, 65-64. With North Carolina clinging to a 75-74 lead, Duke's Mark Williams missed two free throws, and then Caleb Love hit a dagger three pointer to make the score 78-74; that sequence exemplified the game's two big themes: the Tar Heels shot 7-13 (.538) from three point range in the second half to finish 10-26 (.385) overall, while Duke struggled to make free throws (12-20, .600). North Carolina shot 27-64 (.423) from the field overall, while Duke shot 30-72 (.417), including 5-22 (.227) from three point range.

Kryzewski's resume--including five NCAA championships and a record 13 Final Four appearances--indicates that he is one of the greatest college coaches of all-time, but it is worth noting that his Duke team this season lost seven times to an unranked team while being ranked in the AP Top 10, the most such losses in one season since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989-90. Throughout his career, his teams have often lost to underdog teams in the NCAA Tournament--including a loss as the second seed to 15th seed Lehigh in 2012, one of just 10 times a second seed has lost to the 15th seed, and a loss as the third seed to 14th seed Mercer in 2014. Kryzewski did a great job of building Duke into a recruiting powerhouse, but it could be argued that--considering the amount of talent his teams had relative to other teams during the past several decades--he could/should have won even more than he did.

The NCAA Championship Game featuring Kansas and North Carolina epitomized the characteristics and trends described above: we saw an abundance of energy and passion, but that should not in any way be confused with high level execution or a consistent display of basic fundamental skills. Kansas won 72-69, making history with the biggest comeback (16 points) in NCAA Championship Game history. Kansas began the game with a 7-0 run, but trailed 40-25 at halftime, tied for the fourth largest halftime deficit in NCAA Championship Game history. Kansas shot 10-33 (.303) from the field in the first half, including 2-7 (.286) from three point range and 6-21 (.286) in the paint. North Carolina built a 15 point halftime lead despite shooting just 12-33 (.364) from the field in the first half, including 3-11 (.273) from three point range. Kansas opened the second half with a 20-6 run to erase most of North Carolina's advantage, and then Kansas tied the score at 50 on a three point play by Ochai Agbaji with 10:53 remaining in the contest. Agbaji, who scored 12 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in the Championship Game after scoring 21 points on 6-8 field goal shooting in the Final Four rout of Miami, was voted the Final Four Most Outstanding Player. Kansas soon took a 56-50 lead, and was on top most of the rest of the way, though North Carolina briefly went up 69-68 with 1:41 remaining. Even after shooting 19-33 (.576) from the field in the second half, Kansas shot just 29-66 (.439) from the field overall, including 6-17 (.353) from three point range. North Carolina shot just 11-40 (.275) from the field in the second half, including 2-12 (.167) from three point range, finishing 23-73 (.315) overall, including 5-23 (.217) from three point range.

There are many reasons that the quality of play at the highest levels of college basketball is not as good as the quality of play in the NBA. The first, most obvious, and indisputable reason is that in no field of endeavor would it be reasonable to expect apprentices to outperform seasoned professionals: an apprentice craftsman is not superior to an experienced craftsman, and apprentice basketball teams/players are not superior to experienced professional basketball teams/players. The second reason is that there is very little continuity in major college basketball because the best players leave school after just one season; this is not to suggest that players should not be allowed to leave or that they should choose not leave: the point is that the best college-age basketball players in the world are, for the most part, playing in the NBA, not in college. The talent drain of young players going to the NBA means that every year the best college teams are rebuilding, which in turn means that rivalries--at least in terms of individual player matchups--cannot be sustained, and it also means that the best teams do not have a chance to build chemistry or work much on skill set development. Each college season consists of a breathless race to determine which group of talented freshmen can gel as quickly as possible to peak during the one and done NCAA Tournament before the best players jump straight to the NBA. This is the basketball version of fast food, not gourmet cooking, and that is why we see unwatchable games with wretched field goal percentages.

There is no question that the worst NBA team could beat the best NCAA team by at least 20-30 points. Not only are the NBA players more athletic, more talented, and more fundamentally sound, but they are coached better. 

The NCAA Tournament is very popular and generates much passion, but popularity and passion should not be confused with mastery of basketball fundamentals. 

Further Reading:

Baylor Dominates Gonzaga to Win the 2021 NCAA Title (April 2021)

Separating the Grownups From the Kids in Basketball (November 2018) 

Heels Stomp Spartans (2009 NCAA Championship)

C(h)alm in the Clutch: Kansas Defeats Memphis in OT, 75-68 (2008 NCAA Championship) 

Early Entry Players Have Diluted Both College and Pro Basketball (March 2008)

New Blood Versus Blue Blood: Memphis Faces Kansas on Championship Monday

So much for this being the greatest, most competitive Final Four ever. One would think that four number one seeds who had only lost nine games collectively in the regular season could combine to produce two closely contested National Semifinal games but that did not prove to be the case: UCLA stayed close for a half before Memphis ran over, around and through the Bruins in a 78-63 win, while Kansas hit North Carolina with a 40-12 run to start their game and then let the Tar Heels creep to within four points before delivering the knockout blow in an 84-66 victory.

What did we learn from these two lopsided contests? First and foremost, speed kills--particularly when the fast guys are also big. UCLA simply could not contain Derrick Rose (25 points, nine rebounds, four assists, 7-16 field goal shooting) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (28 points, 9-17 field goal shooting), who went wherever they wanted to go and did whatever they wanted to do. As CBS' Billy Packer put it, Rose "plays under control but with speed and power." Packer also noted that Russell Westbrook (22 points on 10-19 field goal shooting) looked like he would fit in nicely in Memphis colors but the rest of the UCLA team simply could not match up with Memphis' big, fast guards. The Bruins wanted to play a slow paced game but they could not get defensive stops or control the boards and therefore could not impose their tempo on Memphis. Call this the "38 special game," because Memphis set an all-time NCAA single-season record by notching win number 38. Curiously, the three previous teams that won 37 games did not win championships in their record-setting seasons.

For most of the first half of the Kansas-North Carolina game it looked like the Tar Heels were running around in cement shoes while the Jayhawks were on roller skates--or that Kansas was actually played seven on five. North Carolina, the top seeded team in the entire tournament, trailed 38-12 at the 7:32 mark of the first half and Packer flatly declared, "It's over." It seemed a bit early for such a definitive statement but his sentiment was quite understandable considering how completely inept North Carolina looked. Kansas pushed the lead to 40-12 but then, as Jayhawks Coach Bill Self put it after the game, they "went brain dead." Inexplicably, Kansas players started jacking up shots from all angles and their defensive intensity noticeably dropped off. Part of this undoubtedly stemmed from fatigue but it also seemed like they thought that the game was over and they could just do whatever they wanted to do. The Tar Heels closed to within a very workable 15 point margin before a last second Sherron Collins jumper made the halftime score 44-27.

Packer said that the first three minutes of the second half would prove to be vital. Kansas certainly looked sharp on the first possession, crisply executing a play that resulted in a Mario Chalmers layup. After three minutes, Kansas still led 52-36. The Tar Heels had finally figured out how to score but they still were not getting many stops and, as Jim Nantz helpfully noted, North Carolina could not afford to trade baskets. Then, all of a sudden, the next five minutes turned into the Danny Green/Wayne Ellington show. Green nailed a three, then he made a two point jumper, then Ellington made a jumper and Kansas' lead had shrunk to 54-44 with 14:10 left. Neither team scored for nearly two minutes, as players from both squads took ill advised shots. Packer observed, "Both teams are not making good judgments when they've got an advantage on the break." Earlier in the game, he repeatedly mentioned that North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough is not a shotblocker but that he is good at taking charges; Hansbrough took three charges in the first half and Packer was mystified that Kansas' players did not understand that they should simply stop crashing into him and instead shoot pullup jumpers that Hansbrough would not be able to block.

After the brief lull by both teams, Ellington sandwiched a couple baskets around a Hansbrough putback and North Carolina only trailed by four, 54-50. The Tar Heels had answered Kansas' 40-12 opening salvo with a 38-14 bombardment of their own. This looked like it had all the makings of the greatest comeback (or greatest choke, depending on your perspective) in Final Four history but Brandon Rush--who scored a game-high 25 points--made a nifty driving layup and North Carolina never got closer than five points the rest of the way. When the Tar Heels tried a half court trap in an attempt to force turnovers or goad Kansas into shooting long jumpers, the Jayhawks patiently broke the trap with one pass and then--following the classic dictum that Hubie Brown always preaches--found the open man under the basket with the second pass out of the trap. Ellington cooled off and the rout was again on for Kansas.

What we are left with now could be called "New blood versus blue blood": the Memphis program has a limited Final Four history but is undergoing a revival under John Calipari, while the Kansas program has a rich, deep tradition that dates all the back to James Naismith. I expected North Carolina to win the championship, so you can take this prediction with a grain of salt, but now I think that this is Memphis' year.