Monday, January 15, 2024

Texans Demolish Browns, 45-14

The Cleveland Browns entered Houston on Saturday as a road favorite--an unusual circumstance in the NFL playoffs--but the Texans routed the Browns 45-14 to put a sudden and disappointing end to the Browns' season. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud nearly had a perfect passer rating (157.2 out of a maximum possible 158.3) as he eviscerated the Browns' highly touted defense. Stroud had 236 passing yards and three touchdowns without being sacked in the first half en route to becoming the youngest quarterback to win a playoff game. Meanwhile, Cleveland's late-season acquisition Joe Flacco--the MVP of Super Bowl XLVII for Baltimore who played very well down the stretch for Cleveland--became the first quarterback to toss multiple pick-sixes in a playoff game since 2007. Flacco tossed those pick-sixes on consecutive possessions, which has not happened in the NFL playoffs since Rich Gannon did it in Super Bowl XXXVII. Stroud is beginning what looks to be a promising career, while the soon to be 39 year old Flacco may have played his last NFL game. 

Full credit to the Texans for a job well-done, but as a long-suffering Browns fan my focus is trained squarely on the losers (which is not meant to detract in any way from what the Texans accomplished).

Kevin Stefanski did an excellent job leading the injury-riddled Browns to an 11-6 record in the 2023 regular season, as the Browns overcame season-ending injuries suffered by elite running back Nick Chubb and starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. Stefanski is the only Browns coach since Bill Belichick to win a playoff game; three years ago, the Cleveland Browns defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 48-37 to notch the Browns' first road playoff win since 1969 and their first playoff win overall since 1995. The Browns scored more than 48 points in a playoff game just twice in their storied history, defeating Buffalo 49-7 in the 1948 All-America Football Conference (AAFC) Championship Game, and routing Detroit 56-10 in the 1954 NFL Championship Game. After beating Pittsburgh, the Browns lost to the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, 22-17.

Stefanski is easily the Browns' best coach since Belichick, although being the best Browns coach during that dreadful period in franchise history is admittedly a low hurdle to jump. While giving Stefanski credit for the success he has enjoyed, it must be noted that the Browns have often flunked situational football on his watch. The 2023 Browns led the league in most turnovers, and ranked second in most penalties committed. Turnovers and penalties often result from a lack of concentration and discipline; both traits are honed in practice, which is where the best coaches make their mark in any sport (notwithstanding the obsession that many media members have with in-game adjustments). I will never forget my conversation with Tom Brown, who started at safety for the Green Bay teams that won the first two Super Bowls (he also played briefly in MLB for the Washington Senators). Brown told me that what changed for the Packers after the departure of Coach Vince Lombardi is that during practice the team lacked the attention to detail that characterized Lombardi's approach to the game, and that lack of attention to detail in practice led to sloppiness during games. 

The turnovers, defensive lapses, and other mistakes the Browns committed during this debacle are all too familiar to Browns fans. The Browns did not look ready or well-prepared. It is worth noting that Stefanski rested most of his starters in the final game of the 2023 regular season, and the Browns suffered a 31-14 drubbing at the hands of their intrastate division rival Cincinnati Bengals. I understand why the Browns rested their players, and I realize that the Browns were not the only team that rested their starters, but I have never been a fan of resting, load management, tanking, or anything other than trying hard to win every game. Tony Dungy was a great coach, but he only won one Super Bowl--and he won that Super Bowl in one of the rare seasons (2006) that he did not rest his key players down the stretch. During other seasons, Dungy's well-rested players watched other teams play in the Super Bowl. Dungy rested his players in the 2007 season finale, and they responded by laying an egg in their first playoff game, giving up more points and more yards than they did in any regular season game, much like the Browns' vaunted defense collapsed versus the Texans despite being so well-rested. In contrast, Tom Coughlin won two Super Bowls, and he should be commended/respected for trying to win every game, an approach that helped his New York Giants win a Super Bowl versus the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

The Houston-Cleveland matchup is intriguing not only from a coaching/preparation standpoint but also because of the 2022 trade that sent quarterback Deshaun Watson from Houston to Cleveland in exchange for six draft picks; the early returns suggest that the Texans won that trade by an even wider margin than they won this game: Watson has been often injured and only seldom effective as a Brown, while the Texans used the draft picks to acquire (either directly via the draft or by trading the draft picks) running back Dameon Pierce, defensive end Will Anderson Jr., receiver Tank Dell, guard Kenyon Green, linebacker Christian Harris, receiver John Metchie III, and defensive end Thomas Booker. The Texans still have three more draft picks from that trade, so they can run up the score so to speak if one or more of those draft picks play well. Pierce led the Texans in rushing (939 yards) as a rookie in 2022, but had a diminished role this season (416 yards) after Devin Singletary emerged as the featured back. As a rookie this season, Anderson Jr. has already made an impact. Fellow rookie Dell had 47 catches for 709 yards and seven touchdowns in 11 games this season before breaking his leg. Green has not made his presence felt yet, but the Texans traded down in the draft to select him, in the process acquiring a fourth round pick and two fifth round picks. The Texans packaged one of those fifth round picks with a third round pick to move up and select Harris in 2022. Harris is a key player for the Texans' defense; the Texans used the fourth round pick to select Metchie III, who missed all of the 2022 season with leukemia but bounced back to have 16 catches this season. Booker is no longer with the Texans.

Before the Houston game, the Browns thought that they had a Super Bowl caliber defense, a veteran quarterback who had already won a Super Bowl, and an offense that featured enough good playmakers to enable Flacco to shine. All of that hope and expectation meant little after kickoff, so the Browns head into yet another offseason facing more questions than answers: 

Is Stefanski a Super Bowl-caliber coach? 

Will Watson get healthy and stay healthy? 

Will Watson return to playing at a Pro Bowl level if he stays healthy? 

Will Chubb be the same player he was before tearing up his knee?

Why did the Browns' highly praised defense fall apart when the stakes were highest? Unless the Texans go on a playoff run that proves otherwise, the Browns were embarrassed by a team that is not a Super Bowl contender, which is very disconcerting.

Friday, January 12, 2024

Appreciating Bill Belichick and Nick Saban

In the past two days, the greatest college football coach of all-time--Nick Saban--retired, and the greatest pro football coach of all-time--Bill Belichick--amicably parted ways with the New England Patriots. It is unclear if Saban will coach again, but it seems likely that Belichick will get another NFL head coaching job. It is fitting to discuss them in the same article because their careers are intertwined.

Saban and Belichick have been friends since the early 1980s when Saban worked with Belichick's father Steve on the coaching staff at Navy. When Bill Belichick became head coach of the Cleveland Browns in 1991, Nick Saban was the first assistant coach he hired. As the defensive coordinator, Saban played a key role for the Browns as they improved from 3-13 the year before Belichick took the reins to 11-5 in 1994. Belichick's Browns coaching staff included not only Saban but also Ozzie Newsome--the Hall of Fame tight end who later built the Baltimore Ravens into two-time Super Bowl champions--plus Kirk Ferentz (who has coached Iowa to 196 wins since 1999), and Pat Hill (who later won 112 games as an NCAA head coach). Belichick and Saban are football savants who share a love for dissecting the sport's intricate details and then preparing meticulously to exploit even the slightest possible advantage.

Saban left the Browns after the 1994 season to become the head coach at Michigan State. He led the Spartans to a 34-24-1 record in five seasons before becoming LSU's head coach. LSU went 3-8 and finished last in the SEC in 1999, the year before Saban arrived; just four years later, Saban led LSU to a 13-1 record and the national championship. After one more season at LSU, Saban left to become the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins went 15-17 in two seasons under Saban; their 6-10 mark in 2006 is the only losing season Saban suffered as a head coach (not including 2007, when Alabama was forced to vacate four wins due to NCAA sanctions stemming from misconduct that mostly took place under Saban's predecessor Mike Shula).

Saban left the Dolphins to become Alabama's head coach in 2007, and the rest is history, as Saban led the Crimson Tide to six national championships (2009, 2011-12, 2015, 2017, 2020) in 17 seasons. Saban has won more national championships (seven) than any coach in NCAA football history, and he ranks sixth on the all-time NCAA wins list with 292. Saban is the first and only coach to win a national championship at two different FBS schools since the inception of the AP poll in 1936, and he joined Paul "Bear" Bryant as the only two coaches to win an SEC title at two different schools. Saban was equally adept at recruiting elite athletes and developing innovative tactics; there have been many coaches who mastered one of those aspects, but it is difficult to imagine another coach matching Saban's acumen in both. Alabama never had a Heisman Trophy winner before Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa; the Crimson Tide had four Heisman Trophy winners on Saban's watch: Mark Ingram (2009), Derrick Henry (2015), DeVonta Smith (2020), and Bryce Young (2022). Only four schools have more Heisman Trophy winners than Alabama: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and USC each have seven Heisman Trophy winners--but those schools accumulated their Heisman Trophies over several decades, while Saban moved Alabama to fifth on the all-time list in 15 years.

Belichick dominated the NFL in a similar fashion to the way that Saban dominated the NCAA. Belichick only coached one more season with the Browns after Saban departed; after Art Modell announced his plan to move the Browns to Baltimore, Belichick endured a tumultuous 1995 season. Modell fired Belichick after that 5-11 campaign. Belichick spent the 1996 season as assistant head coach with the New England Patriots under Bill Parcells, and then he moved to the New York Jets with Parcells, serving as assistant head coach from 1997-1999. After Parcells left the Jets, Belichick was the heir apparent, but Belichick made a shrewd assessment of the situation and decided to instead become the head coach of the New England Patriots. Belichick took over a team that went 8-8 under Pete Carroll, and Belichick's critics howled after the Patriots went 5-11 in 2000--but the Patriots improved to 11-5 in 2001, winning the AFC East and defeating the favored St. Louis "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. 

The Patriots slipped to 9-7 in 2002 but then won back to back Super Bowl titles in 2003 and 2004 en route to posting 17 consecutive seasons with at least 10 wins; during that time, the Patriots won 16 AFC East titles (including 11 straight from 2009-2019), and three more Super Bowls (2014, 2016, 2018) while posting the first (and only) 16-0 regular season (2007) in NFL history. In 2008, the Patriots went 11-5 despite losing Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady to a season-ending knee injury in the first quarter of the first game. When the Patriots beat the L.A. Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII, Belichick became the oldest coach to win a Super Bowl.  

Belichick made his name as a defensive guru--his defensive game plan as the defensive coordinator for the Giants' first Super Bowl win is an exhibit at the Pro Football Hall of Fame--but during his career he has proven that he can adjust with the times as well as with personnel changes. At the start of his New England tenure, the Patriots relied on stern defense and timely offense, but after Brady developed into an elite passer Belichick opened up the offense and the Patriots' offense became fearsome. Belichick was successful when he had superstar receiver Randy Moss, and he was successful when he had a receiving corps devoid of Pro Bowl receivers. Belichick has a grandmaster level understanding of situational football, and his special teams units contributed heavily to the success of his teams.

Belichick has won six Super Bowl titles in nine Super Bowl appearances as a head coach. He is the record holder in both categories by a wide margin, with Chuck Noll ranking second in wins (four) and Don Shula ranking second in appearances (six). In the pre-Super Bowl era, George Halas and Curly Lambeau each won six NFL titles.

Belichick holds NFL coaching records for most playoff wins (31, nine more than Andy Reid), most division titles (17, four more than Shula, Andy Reid, and Tom Landry), most conference championships in the Super Bowl era (nine), and most Super Bowl appearances (12, including three as an assistant coach). Belichick ranks third all-time in NFL regular season wins (302), trailing only Shula (328) and Halas (318); if you add up regular season wins and playoff wins, Belichick's 333 trails only Shula's 347. Belichick's 21 winning seasons are fifth on the all-time list behind Halas (40), Shula (33), Lambeau (33), and Landry (29).

It is no secret that New England has not played well during the four seasons after Tom Brady left New England to go to Tampa Bay--but people who have short memories or who lack knowledge of football history place too much emphasis on these last few years of Belchick's New England career, and they focus too much on whether Belichick or Brady deserve the most credit for New England's unprecedented success. Hall of Fame quarterback play is almost always required to win a Super Bowl, and after winning Super Bowls even the greatest NFL coaches rarely end their careers on a high note.

There are 13 coaches other than Belichick who have won at least two Super Bowls. Andy Reid is the only two-time Super Bowl winner who is currently coaching an NFL team.

Noll won all four of his Super Bowls with Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw at quarterback. Bradshaw retired after the 1983 season, and Noll posted a 2-2 playoff record in his final eight seasons after going 14-6 in the playoffs from 1969-1983. Noll had eight seasons with at least 10 regular season wins from 1972-83 but did not win more than nine games in a season after 1983.

Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh are next on the Super Bowl coaches list with three championships each. Gibbs won Super Bowls with three different starting quarterbacks, none of whom are Hall of Famers. His Washington Redskins went 9-7 in the season after his last Super Bowl win, and he retired. Gibbs came back to the Redskins 12 years later, but he did not match his earlier success, posting losing records in two seasons out of four and failing to qualify for the playoffs in all four seasons before retiring for good. Walsh is the rare NFL coach who left on top, retiring in 1988 after his San Francisco 49ers won their third Super Bowl in an eight season span. Hall of Famer Joe Montana was the quarterback for all three of Walsh's Super Bowl champions. Walsh later came back as the head coach at Stanford, where he had posted back to back bowl wins before becoming the 49ers' coach; he led Stanford to a bowl win in 1992, but closed his coaching career with 4-7 and 3-7-1 records. 

Shula's Miami Dolphins won back to back Super Bowl titles in 1972-73 with Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese, and Shula led the Dolphins back to the Super Bowl twice in the 1980s, but in the 10 seasons after his last Super Bowl appearance the Dolphins posted a 3-4 playoff record and missed the playoffs six times. 

Landry led the Dallas Cowboys to 20 consecutive winning seasons and two Super Bowl titles, but in his final three seasons the Cowboys went 7-9, 7-9, and 3-13. Hall of Famer Roger Staubach was the quarterback for both of Landry's Super Bowl champions

Bill Parcells won two Super Bowls in a five season span--both times with Belichick running the defense--but his teams missed the playoffs four times in his final seven seasons, and he did not win a playoff game in his final five seasons. Like Gibbs, Parcells won his Super Bowls without having a Hall of Fame quarterback.

Tom Coughlin's New York Giants twice defeated Belichick's Patriots in the Super Bowl, but after that second Super Bowl win Coughlin did not make another playoff appearance in his final four seasons, posting losing records in the last three. Coughlin's two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback Eli Manning is not yet Hall of Fame eligible, but it is a safe bet that Manning will be a Hall of Famer. 

Mike Shananan led the Denver Broncos to back to back Super Bowl wins in 1997-98 with Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway running the show. After 1998, Shanahan went 1-5 in the playoffs, and he finished his career coaching the Washington Redskins to three losing seasons in a four year span, including a 3-13 record in his final campaign. 

George Seifert succeeded Walsh, and won a Super Bowl in his first season with Montana as the quarterback. Seifert won his second Super Bowl in 1994 with Hall of Famer Steve Young as the quarterback. Seifert coached five more seasons (two with the 49ers and then three with the Carolina Panthers), posting a 1-2 playoff record and ending his career with back to back losing seasons, including a 1-15 record in his final campaign.

Tom Flores led the Raiders to two Super Bowl wins in a four year span, but he did not win a single playoff game after capturing his second Super Bowl title. The Raiders had losing records in each of his final four seasons. Jim Plunkett, who is not a Hall of Famer, quarterbacked both of Flores' championship teams.

Vince Lombardi coached the Green Bay Packers to five championships, including wins in each of the first two Super Bowls. Hall of Famer Bart Starr quaterbacked all five of Lombardi's championship teams. Lombardi retired after his second Super Bowl win/fifth championship, only to return a year later to coach the Washington Redskins. Lombardi led the Redskins to a 7-5-2 record in his only season with the team before he died of cancer.

Jimmy Johnson coached the Dallas Cowboys to back to back Super Bowl wins in 1992-93 before losing a power struggle with owner Jerry Jones. Hall of Famer Troy Aikman quarterbacked both of those Super Bowl champions, and then he won a third Super Bowl with Barry Switzer coaching Dallas. Johnson returned to the NFL in 1996 with the Miami Dolphins, posting a 36-28 regular season record and a 2-3 playoff record without reaching the conference championship round, let alone the Super Bowl.

It should be noted that Paul Brown led the Cleveland Browns to seven league championships in the pre-Super Bowl era--four straight in the AAFC and then three in the NFL. Hall of Famer Otto Graham was his quarterback for all seven championships. Brown coached the Browns for seven more seasons after Graham retired; during that time, the Browns lost twice in the NFL championship game. Modell fired Brown after the Browns went 7-6-1 in 1962. Brown returned to pro football in 1968 as the owner/coach of the expansion Cincinnati Bengals in the AFL, leading the Bengals to a 55-56-1 record in eight seasons (two in the AFL and six in the NFL). The Bengals went 0-3 in the playoffs under Brown.

The point is not to throw shade on any of these great coaches, but to just emphasize that Belichick's late career record is not unusual and does not in any way diminish what he accomplished during his prime. It will be interesting to see how Belichick fares if he is hired by another team.

For any football purist it was a joy to watch teams coached by Belichick or Saban, because their teams were disciplined, well-prepared, calm under pressure, and fundamentally sound.